Nine Go Ultra Short in Grade III ‘Flying Pig’
Nine fillies and mares will line up Saturday in Mississippi’s 15th race feature, the Grade III Flying Pig Sprint, a 5 furlong sprint for fillies and mares 4 years old and older on the dirt course predicted to be fast on Saturday. The horses by Post Position:
PP 1 – They Call Me Magic (Danzig x Nijinsky II). They also call her the top-ranked older filly or mare sprinter, but this 4 year old girl from the slipery1 stable is just co-2nd choice in the morning line with 2 others, at 5/1. That’s because she’s got a little bit of the “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” syndrome going on. She’s been keeping top company to be sure (her last 4 races have all been Grade I or II), and she hasn’t been wowing many folks recently, with a 4th being the best finish in those last four. On the other hand, she’s certainly shown the ability in the past to run with these, witness a 108 speed fig win 5 races back in an ungraded stakes contest. On still another hand, this distance is a mystery to her. She’s never gone shorter than 6f in her career. A real wildcard here, despite her experience.
PP 2 – Greek Ransom (Red Ransom x Sword Dance(IRE)) comes in from the slewsback3 stable, and is another taking on a foreign distance. This miler-type gal is 7-1-1 from 13 lifetime races between 7.5 and 8.5 furlongs. She’s never even tried anything less than 6.5 before. When she’s running her best race, she likes to be on or near the lead, a feat she’ll have trouble maintaining with this field. While I’d be hard-pressed to bet against her between 7.5 and 8.5 furlongs, here I’d have to wait to see if she likes going this short.
PP 3 – Dublin Lass (Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector). This royally-bred pride of the dublinlad stable comes in at the top of her game, coming off of a very nice wire to wire win in an ungraded stakes race, but perhaps more telling was her race before that one, another wire to wire job, this time in the Grade II Sister Dumb Stakes, where she beat two of her rivals in this race, including Saturday’s favorite, Birds of Paradise. There doesn’t seem to be any reason to think she won’t handle the one furlong reduction, and the only real question here (for me anyways) is whether or not she’ll be able to handle another front-runner or three in the mix in this race. She’s even shown the ability to stalk just off the pace when she has to, which may be the difference here. I like her chances a lot, depending on the pace and the races that Kacymygirl and Birds of Paradise run outside of her.
PP 4 – Fan Dancer (Lear Fan x Alleged) is a bit of an enigma. She’s been topping out around the mid-nineties in speed figs, which doesn’t seem to be enough to win in this company, but she also ran a very solid second her last time out, in the Grade II Real Danger Handicap, beating Aim for the Moon and the aforementioned Birds of Paradise. This gal is also one of the only horses in this race to run at this distance, and while she hasn’t won at 5f, she has won several times at 5.5. The morning line odds say 11/1, but you know that the evil geniuses at super21 can never be counted out. Might be a nice value in exotics if she can hang on.
PP 5 – Aim For The Moon (Woodman x High Yield) is bred and trained by teamfoppa, and while she is deadly against ungraded stakes competition, she’s had some problems in Graded races (she has an 8th, 3rd, and 6th in her Graded efforts). She’s shown the ability to run as fast as most of these, but she’s also lost to several of these. Another who races best on or near the lead, she can also stalk a bit. Might be in a bit over her head here though, and I’d have to see a bigger number in a Graded race before placing a bet here.
PP 6 – Kacymygirl (Macabe x Silver Ghost) is a modestly bred 4 year old filly who’s at the top of her game as well. Throw out her race two starts back (when she was pulled up), and you have one scary competitor in super form. Her last time out and 3rd race back were stellar efforts that got her wins in two Grade II sprints (albeit at 7 furlongs) with speeds of 108 and 112. If she runs one of those kinds of numbers again, this field will be wondering what hit them. If star jock B. Orazio (23% wins this year) gets her up to speed quickly enough in this one (she won a 5f owner restricted race a couple of years ago in her only try at this distance), she’s got the stuff to get her connections at the nj50 stable to stand next to her for the winner’s circle pictures.
PP 7 – Good Sahmaritan (Sahm x Mr. O.P.) ships in from the vsmdinc2 stable with almost the opposite set of pros and cons as most of her competition here: She loves the super-short sprints, having her last seven races at 5.5f or shorter, and she’s done very well with them to boot (3-1-0 in those last 7). She’s also 2-0-0 in her only 3 starts this year. But she’s also been doing it against allowance-class horses. She’s only had one lifetime start in a stakes race, and that was an ungraded route last year. Personally I’d need to see her do something against stakes classed horses before putting longshot money here.
PP 8 – Birds Of Paradise (Seeking The Gold x Storm Bird). I wanted to like this girl to win, and there are many reasons to like her: She comes in as the top-earning female in the stable of that venerable sim vet dixiedotco (over 26% winners in 948 sim races in this stable alone!), she’s a multiple Graded sprint winner, and she’s run a 105 speed fig or better in 4 of her last 8. But there are some very real vulnerabilities here as well: She’s been beaten in her last two outings by two different horses in this race, and since her last win 4 races ago, she hasn’t gained in the stretch at all. Perhaps the shortening will be to her liking, but I’d need to see her back to her winning ways before placing a win bet here.
PP 9 – Udontwantnone (Swiss Yodeler x Secretariat) is a 6 year old mare trained by the stalfred stable, and while she seems very adept at allowances and ungraded stakes, may be in a bit tough here (she’s 0-0-1 in 6 lifetime Graded efforts, and was dead last in her only Graded race this year). She also has done better nearer a mile, and the shortening might not help, as she’s the lone stone closer in this field. On the other hand, if there IS a suicide pace here, and it sets up for a true closer, then perhaps this gal will be flying in the stretch. But in this 5 furlong race, it’s a tough proposition.
My Picks:
1) Dublin Lass – outlasts Kacymygirl by a slim margin in a 3 horse slugfest.
2) Kacymygirl – furious battle in the stretch, not quite enough.
3) Birds of Paradise – Game effort, never out of it, but just can’t get over the hump.