Long Shot Picked to Win in Longchamp Grade II.
The Little Ones Juvenile Stakes
Grade II
Six Furlongs on Firm Turf
$250,000
All horses, 2 years old
You can’t beat standing along the rail at Longchamp and checking out these promising young horses all week. What a job! Some of these may be in the big spring races next year as three year olds but they can be weeded out in a hurry. Let’s take a look:
1 – REFUSEFROMTHESTORM(IRE) ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 8/1 MitenPower 22.2% M.Nurmi 8% 67.1 64.5 N/A
This Irish bred offspring of Refuse To Bend took a slight step backward last outing on an off track but looked good in winning his first race. He may advance his SPF this time with a firm and fast course. Trainer MitenPower has learned already that his colt likes it dry. We will have to wait and see if that was the problem or the first race was an aberration but this is a good looking young lad and I think that he will bounce back. The inside post is wasted on him as he likes to drop back behind the leaders a bit.
| 2 – RED ROVER | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | Jazzrun | 14.3% | I.C.Posse | 5% | 67.1 | 67.1 | N/A |
Trainer JazzRun had to be disappointed in his colt after the first race but decided to put him on the green and he responded well with a win and a solid 67 SPF. He came from mid pack in a large field and actually won fairly easily at five and a half furlongs. I.C.Posse is up and has been struggling a bit this year but has always shown a good hand with the young inexperienced horses. Hopefully they can both pull through here.
| 3 – SADDLED TO GO | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | NewOnes | 2.6% | J.Cuervo | 10% | 66.0 | 66.0 | N/A |
This Our Emblem out of Mother Sadie colt was another that switched surfaces with good results. He won easily as a long shot in his second outing and trainer NewOnes has to be happy with those results. He likes to run just off of the lead and will probably run alongside REFUSEFROMTHESTORM. Cuervo is in the irons and has been having a nice campaign. He will be able to guide this youngster to where he needs to go.
| 4 – DERVISH | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | TwoOfUs | 16.3% | E.Wood | 6% | N/A | N/A | 65 |
Here is a surface change that hasn’t happened yet. The offspring of first year sire Mingun who himself was sired by A.P.Indy ran a sizzling 70 SPF and won the GR Simsters 2 year old Stakes in a field of 16. Then he took a big step back and finished near the end with a 14 point drop in SPF last time. Trainer TwoOfUs has to be scratching his head and trying to figure out what this colt wants to do. The switch should be interesting but this sure looks like a dirt colt.
| 5 – BEEL THRU MONTY(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | Jarrod5 | 7.5% | D.Gullett | 14% | 61.9 | 61.9 | N/A |
One of two fillies in the race, this Montjeau sired young lady is another confusing youngster. She won her maiden easily then dropped 21 points off of her SPF to come in dead last in a field of 14 in her second race. She switched surfaces and came in third last time out but trainer Jarrod5 has to be wondering what this lady wants to do. He has Gullet in the saddle and his 10 years of experience should certainly help with the guidance of this young lady.
| 6 – DEATHBFOREDISHONOR | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Ratem | 12.5% | R.Howard | 12% | 65.8 | 64.2 | N/A |
Just be glad that you don’t have to print the name on the saddlecloth for this colt. He is by Rainbow Quest out of Euthanasia, a filly with double digit wins to her credit. The nicely bred colt had a nice improvement in his second race and won but with only a 65 SPF. Did he cruise at the end or is that all he had? Trainer Ratem and jockey Howard have a couple of questions to answer with this colt but this race may be a good place to do it.
| 7 – JANDICAPER | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72/1 | Jandicaper | 14.3% | P.McCartney | 7% | 62.5 | 61.1 | N/A |
This colt is by first year sire Prince Hennessy and is the only offspring with a win so far. He has had widely mixed results though with a win in a slow race and no speed over a 62 SPF. He will need to bump that up some if he is going to contend here. Trainer Jandicaper is bringing his namesake along slowly but would love to see a break out race here and start a streak of wins. It is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities with this field.
| 8 – BROWN STATESMAN(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | Corza6 | 1.9% | R.Perloff | 9% | 65.2 | 65.2 | N/A |
Our second filly in the race is undefeated in her only outing. She is sired by Desert King and looks like a keeper for trainer Corza6. She won easily by nearly three lengths and cruised home with the win. Jockey Perloff has been having a nice campaign and has been whispering to anyone that will listen that this filly is something special. This will be a good test for her against the boys and if she can come out on top, Corza6 will have some big decisions to make about where to place her next.
| 9 – SYN CITY | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/1 | XXXStable | 21.1% | J.Ventura | 15% | 64.8 | 64.8 | 31 |
A win on turf and a win on dirt sandwiched around a disaster tells you all you need to know about training two year olds. XXXStable has already ridden the roller coaster this year with this young You And I colt. It appears that he still hasn’t put it all together yet and this may be a good place. He liked the lead in his two wins so I would assume that jockey Ventura will move him out early. Ventura has been hot this year and will give this colt his best.
| 10 – SUPER SILLY(GB) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | Super17 | 10.4% | B.Lugosi | 10% | 68.3 | 68.3 | N/A |
A really nice looking colt by lightly used sire Dansili out of successful broodmare Nurse Robin who inexplicably is 17 years old and never ran a race! The colt won his only race with a speedy 68 SPF and looked good doing it. Trainer Super17 has put jockey Lugosi in the saddle and he’s had good results this year. This race is a chance for this colt to really show that he is ready for Prime Time. I might take a flyer on this one and put a few shekels on the nose.
| 11 – HELDENPLATZ(GB) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | Stallascot | 6.0% | D.Coulthard | 6% | 77.0 | 77.1 | N/A |
Somebody is going to have explain to me what the Morning Line was doing when it set the odds at 13 to 1 on this Compton Place colt. He looked like a lightning bolt in his first and only race when he easily won at six furlongs in a sizzling 77 SPF. Trainer Stallascot had to nearly be restrained in waiting for the second start for this big chestnut colt to see if he can match that first race. Coulthard is in the saddle and if he goes as fast as the first time, he had better be ready to hold on.
| 12 – GENEROUS BUDA(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | Fats | 11.6% | B.Wu | 22% | 69.2 | 64.7 | N/A |
Turf loving sire Generous must be proud of this son as he has a first and a third in his two races and they were both allowances. Trainer Fats decided to skip the maiden class and he has looked quite capable. He has the hottest jock at the track in Wu up and should be a force to be reckoned with in this race. He hasn’t hit a 70 SPF yet and needs a little bit of improvement in that area but it looks like he is flying in workouts this week.
| 13 – JM MIND WARS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36/1 | TamJennic | 6.1% | C.Cleland | 7% | 66.3 | 66.3 | N/A |
This bargain bred by sire Minds Music won his first race rather easily on turf then tried one on the dirt and the results were not as favorable. He is back on the green stuff and trainer TamJennic wants to see his colt revert to the form of the first race. He has generous odds for being undefeated on turf. Hopefully jockey Cleland will have no problem with the outside post and bring this colt home.
| 14 – POLLARD’S LIGHT | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | HellRaiser | 27.3% | S.Graff | 17% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
A big chestnut colt out of freshman sire Pollard’s Vision who is a son of Carson City. He has been very consistent with only one point between his two SPFs in his first two. He has one win there and a disappointing third in a four horse field last time out. Trainer Hellraiser would like to see a jump in improvement for this race and has Graff in the irons who has been having one of his best campaigns in his 10 years of experience. This will be his first race on the outside and we will see how he reacts.
Morning Line = 2-4-6-1-8-12
Yoss Tipsheet = 11-10-12-14
Paz Picks = 11-12-10-2
I could easily put a lot of these colts in the top five but I like RED ROVER to finish fourth. I may regret this but I am going to use SUPER SILLY in my third slot even though I feel like he could win it all. A couple of semi-longshots at 8/1 and 13/1 are in my final two. I like GENEROUS BUDA to just miss and settle for second and I am going to put my paycheck on HELDENPLATZ at those odds to win the race and start off a very promising career.
Good luck to all runners!
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