Japan has been known for many things over the years. Turn over an electronic device, and there is a good chance that you will see “Made in Japan”. Samurai’s and Harikari? Japanese. Sushi and Hibachi? Japanese. Who bombed Pearl Harbor? The Japanese. What you don’t see on this list is a turf course at the Japan race track. That’s because it is not a well-known course. It does host its fair share of races, however. This week, it plays host to the Grade 3 Kasuda Yinen Mile, a race for all 3yo+ horses going one mile. Kasuda Yinen, for those of you who don’t speak Japanese, means exactly what you think it means. That’s right. Although my assignment is in Japan, I do not know Japanese. My editors assured me that I would not need it, as the language of the Sim knows no bounds. But, as I use my infinite wisdom (a.k.a. Google), I realize that the only times the phrase is ever used is in conjunction with previous runnings of this race. So, in classic MXC fashion, I will translate Kasuda Yinen on my own. It means “one who runs fastest over mile on grass”. So there you have it. A field of 9 has taken form for the One Who Runs Fastest Over Mile On Grass Mile. But before that, a quick look at the history of the race, which began as a $500,000 G2 in 2000, but became what it is today, a $150,000 Grade 3, the following year.
The first running of the Kasuda Yinen Mile came in 2000. 6 of the 12 runners would eventually become millionaires, but none of them could even come close to the winner of the race. 2006 Sim Hall of Fame Inductee Enough Knock, earning $7.8M in his career, blew the field away in the first running of the race. He started off a nose behind, but quickly took the lead and drew away under a hand ride by Nate Tippins. A 6-1/2 length win translated into a 120 SP, although the betting public did not see this coming, sending him off as the 4/1 second choice.
The 2001 field may have been the most star-studded, but only 8 horses competed. Pleasant Neck, a dead closer, flew from 8 back at the half way point to be a mere 1-3/4 back at the top of the stretch. He went on to win by 4 under Eric Baldwin, earning a 111 speed figure (good enough for 2nd the year before, still 6 lengths behind Enough Knock). While he may have earned $2.2M in his career, however, he went off as the second choice. The betting favorite that year was Manilla Mint, who ran a dull 5th. However, the big attraction this year was 2006 Sim Hall of Fame Inductee School Kris(GB), who did not perform as well as his Hall of Fame counterpart. Off as the 5/1 3rd choice, he got caught up in a speed duel and dropped to 4th, 6 lengths behind the winner.
2002 gave us the most exciting running of this race. The top 4 finishers would all retire as millionaires, with Sweet Robin being the most wealthy, at $1.8M. As the 3/1 favorite, he would finish 3rd, 6-1/2 lengths back. The real battle came between stalker Brown Voss and closer Dynaform Sir. Both well-known and well-respected in their time, it was Dynaform Sir this time who would prevail. At 11/1, he came from 8-1/2 back to nip Brown Voss by a head, after Brown Voss gained the lead at the in the middle of the stretch. The two pulled away to earn speed figures of 119 and 118, with Seattle Mariners OF Ichiro Suzuki taking the day off to ride Dynaform Sir.
Dynaform Sir would return in 2003 to take on another full field, again at 11/1 odds. This time, however, he would not run as well, finishing 7th, 11-1/2 lengths back. Instead, another 11/1 shot, Barkboy, would take the victory in this one. Battling a couple of Storms (Storm Slithering and Storm Sparky(IRE)) for the lead, Barkboy emerged at the halfway point, and never looked back. Nate Tippins took home his second trophy in this race. The bigger news, however, related to the 5th place finish of the 3/1 favorite, and future Sim Hall of Famer Volatile Nijinsky. He ran a dull stalking race, even losing ground at the end of the race. Other notables included Daneye and K. Wad, who both ran poorly.
Both Barkboy and Volatile Nijinsky would return in 2004 to try their luck again; Barkboy to defend his title and Volatile Nijinsky to redeem himself. However, neither would succeed, at odds of 18/1 and 8/1, respectively. Instead, the stalking trip would be the most popular, and for the first time in four years, the favorites would be the ones finishing at the top. 7/2 favorite Ziklag would go on to win by 1-3/4 after coming from 5 back to beat 9/2 second choice George’s X Con. Ziklag has only won 1 race since this effort, although he has made $2.8M for his career. Only 3 of the 14 in this field are millionaires, and they include the two repeat runners. Several are still active, although the 2004 running paled in quality of runners to previous years. Rob Scharf was the winning jockey.
Rookie jockey K. Ledwith quickly became Japan’s premier jockey, and it was partly because of the 2005 edition of this race. Barkboy would return to the site of his first Graded Stakes win, but after leading for the first 4 furlongs of the 8 horse race, he faded to last, 18-1/2 behind the winner. He would race twice more before retiring. Again the stalkers and closers would get the job done, as this race came down to the wire. In the end, Xtremely A Fan would pull away to win by 2-1/4, beating out 2/1 favorite Leven Seventy Won. With Ledwith aboard, Xtremely A Fan came from 6 back to take the lead at the top of the stretch, and then won comfortably. Both the first and second place runners are millionaires. The time of the race, 1:34 flat, rivaled that of Enough Knock’s 2000 win and Dynaform Sir’s 2002 win. However, 2005 brought the adjustment of Speed Figures to the Sim, and Xtremely A Fan earned a mere 113, besting only that of Pleasant Neck in 2001.
9 horses take the field for this year’s running of the Kasuda Yinen Mile, with the odds going down the list. The favorite comes from the 1 post, followed by the second and third choices, horses 2 and 3. Leading the field is the 43rd ranked Turf Classic older horse, Recoil.
Recoil – This 4yo son of Miswaki runs for the Londoner stable as the 4/1 favorite. He has not been off the board in 4 starts this year, and has missed the exacta only once in his previous 9 races. His last race was a career best for a Graded Stakes, in the Grade 1 All Comers Stakes over the mile turf course in Victoria. Setting the pace the entire race, a game Xtremely A Fan (of 2005 Kasuda Yinen fame, and the #2 ranked turf classic horse) caught him to win by a nose. The tight race earned Recoil a 109 Speed Figure. He has yet to come through in a graded stakes race, although he has been up against some stiff competition. One potential issue is that although he has run here in Japan 3 times, he has never finished higher than 4th. His one run at a mile here was one of his worst mile performances ever, finishing 7th by 6-3/4 in an open allowance in September of last year. He picks up jockey Charles Roser, who has about as good of a win percentage as a jockey can have (22.1% this year). He seems to be an all-or-nothing jockey, with only a 38% ITM percentage. That may fair well for this colt, however, as he seems to always run first or second. Expect to seem him on or near the front the whole race; peaking at the right time
Niner Connection – Sent out by n2racing2, this 4yo son of Forty Niner was based on Zig Zag Connection, a multiple stakes winner on the turf. It appears his/her son has found the same niche, with a record of 22:8-2-7 on the turf. This colt is another one who comes off of a career best run in his previous race, the Sydney Mile in New South Wales, resulting in 9/2 odds for this race. Although he finished 3rd, 2-3/4 lengths behind the winner (Mizzen Dizzie, #3 ranked Turf Classic horse), it was a career fast run for him. He sat about mid-pack in the race, and although the winner wired the field, this brown colt managed to pick up 3 lengths in the stretch. He began the year with a 3 race winning streak, before jumping from allowances and stakes to the G1 Crock of Gold, where he finished a respectable 5th. He tried to wire the field there, but failed, and I think his trainer has learned since then, taking him back in his previous race. Jockey Greg Arnold will probably sit back around mid-pack in this one, and let the horses on the front tire themselves out, giving this colt a good chance. Even if that doesn’t happen, this one shows a lot of promise. He steps back in class here from his last 2, going from Grade 1’s to a Grade 3, and that should help even more; very possible
Gingobell – notturna1’s 4yo colt by Pine Bluff may remind you of a song when you first see his name, but he hopes to change that memory into one of a Graded Stakes winner. This very experienced runner (33 starts, including 7 already this year) comes in as the #18th ranked turf classic horse. That, however, may be on sheer number of races alone. He started out 2006 with a first, second, and third in 3 starts, but has cooled off since then. He has done no better than 4th in his last 4. His previous two starts at a mile, the All Comers Mile and the Sydney Mile, both resulted in 4th place finishes, putting him behind his competitors in this race. He goes off as the 9/2 co-2nd choice based off his run in the Arcade Handicap, a mile-long G2 turf race at Queensland in week 2790. A 109 speed figure and best run of the year resulted in a 2nd place finish, beaten 2-1/4 by Congo (#9 ranked turf classic horse). A scary trend is that in each of his last 10 races, with the exception of his win in the Buddy Boy Mile on the good turf here in Japan, he has lost ground in the stretch. I’m surprised to see that he hasn’t tried sprinting in almost a year, when it seems like he would be better suited in shorter races. He picks up K. Ledwith as the jockey, which always bodes well, but I feel Ledwith may be in over his head here. With the two inside horses at the top of their game, this one looks to be on the downhill side; chance for lower exotics, but would prefer others
Three Man Colt – I may be wrong, but I believe that phonetrick’s 5yo son of Rahy was bred with the winnings from a Three Man competition. To make the win even sweeter, this one debuted as a 3yo with a 113 SP in a maiden race, blowing the field away to win by 7-1/2. The Rhode Island track was playing fast that day, as neither he nor second place runner Fireball Express would match their run in that maiden. However, this 5yo has not disappointed. He has picked up 9 wins in his 28 career starts, including a win in the G3 Royal Calm Stakes, an 8.5f turf race in Florida, 4 races back. This horse is a tad inconsistent, with the 108 SP he earned in that win coming in between 6 runs with Speed figures in the 90s. For the year, he is 3 for 7, and his is coming off of a win an open allowance in Finland, where he ran a 99 SP. He didn’t need any more, however, as he won pulling away by 1-1/2. A 9/1 choice in the field of 9, his mediocre recent runs have shied the betting public away from him. There is a thought that he may be too old, and that he is past his prime. To further repel the betting public, Chris Maxie has gotten the call to ride. He has a 7.4% win percentage, and only 20% ITM. He should be stalking the pace, and no more than a few lengths behind the frontrunners. However, he will have to show a little more than he has recently to get the job done; inconsistent
Silver Victory – Based on Whipped Boot, a stakes winner on the turf, this 5yo son of Silver Ghost has exceeded any expectations that owner arterra must have had based on his male-dam. This horse has bounced around the turf and dirt, although his one Graded Stakes win came on the turf at this distance 3 years ago. He is coming off of a win in an 8f open allowance on the dirt of Dubai, although his previous race was an attempt in the G1 Sydney Mile. He ran a poor race there, finishing 12th with a 94 SP. His career dirt/turf record is 4:1-1-1, including a 2:0-1-0 record this year. He had been fairly consistent up until his last turf race, with Speed Figures of 104, 104, and 101 in the surface-switch races. His previous race was his first win of the year in 6 starts, as he was able to get a nose out in front early and managed to wire the field to win by 2, earning a 99 speed figure on the good dirt. He has tried both coming from off the pace as well as trying to set the pace. I doubt he will be able to set the pace in this weekend’s race, but his two best races this year have been when he was on the lead at the beginning. He does not look like he has the legs to come from behind anymore. He goes off at 6/1 in this race, and picks up jockey Al Blundin (8.8% win, 17% ITM) to try and guide him home; past his prime
Open Sez Mr – The best of 4 children from 14yo mare Nurse Rusty, mystake’s 4yo son of Opening Verse comes into this race at 9/1 odds. The past performances on this guy may not look great at first glance, but they are certainly deceiving. His last race at this distance, an open allowance 3 starts ago, resulted in a 5th place finish and a 92 speed figure, not nearly enough to get the job done. However, looking at the race, it appears that something went wrong with the horse. He lost a lot of ground in the stretch, which is not something he normally does. His race 5 starts back, at 10f, was clearly too long for him. His other three starts this year have all come at 7.5f. His last race, in the Skillfully Jam Memorial at New South Wales was a good one, as he got beat by a very fast Street(IRE) but opened up 2 lengths on the 3rd place finisher. The race before, he earned a 96 SP. The number may seem low, but he won by 2-1/4 and was under a hand ride the entire stretch. His one other race this year resulted in a 106 SP, as he took a NW1s allowance by 1-1/4. When pushed, this stalker can run about as fast as the top competitors here. He is 7 for 22 lifetime, and this is his first attempt in a graded stakes. Jockey Ron Duffy (6.1%, 28%) will ride; live longshot
El Nino Rapido – A 4yo son of Mineshaft, “The Fast Boy” has lived up to his name so far for oaklawn66. He comes into this race as the 5/1 fourth choice, and he has been very consistent so far this year. In his 8 races this year, he is 3-0-3 with 2 5th place finishes. All 8 of his starts have resulted in speed figures between 95 and 104, and since his second race of the year, only one start has been below a 99 SP. His last run was 2 weeks ago in the G3 Port Marshua Handicap in Hong Kong. This colt has blistering speed, as he has been leading the way around the track in all but one of his 21 career races. There is no doubt that he will be out there again this Saturday, taking this field for a ride. His previous run at a mile came 3 starts back in the Grade 2 Lone Star Mile, where he got caught in the stretch and ended up 3rd, 2-3/4 behind the winner with a 102 speed figure. Also passing him in the stretch was 2nd place runner Recoil (PP #1), which may turn out to be important this time. The “Boy”’s two best runs this year have come at this distance, although he has never tried the track. Rob Scharf(9.6%, 26%), winner of the 2004 running of this race, hops on board here; consistent threat
Sing Phyl Sing(GB) – sam sends out this 4yo son of Opera House(GB). The 10/1 longshot, this colt has already run 9 times this year, the most recent of which was in the He’s A Gay Devil Special on week 2853 in Rhode Island. This race, a 7.5f turf try, ended with a victory by a head. He earned a 98 speed figure, which is alarming for this field. 10/1 actually seems generous. He has been very consistent this year on both the turf and dirt, as every start has had a speed figure in the 90s. He comes into this race off of wins in his last two, both on the turf, and both his best runs of the year. Ironically, his two highest speeds come in the He’s A Gay Devil Special stakes. Huh? Yes, apparently the He’s A Gay Devil Special was run twice, once in Rhode Island on week 2853, and once in Wyoming on week 2741. Both were contested at 7.5f on the turf, and this colt ran a 99 SP both times (winning the more recent one, running third in the prior one). He will try and close here from around midpack. His last race at this distance was the Grade 3 Laffit Handicap, where he finished 9th, 12 lengths back, in his season debut. His prior race, to end 2005, was his best career race, in a stakes race here in Japan. He has never come close to the race that he ran here, although it was a second place finish. If he can repeat that one race, he will be very competitive. Alfred Hudson(13.7%, 32%) rides this time, and that might help, but I think his last race here was a fluke; slight chance, but highly unlikely
Offstage(GB) – Rounding out the 9 horse field is the 7/1 4yo son of Diesis(GB). Owned by clmstable, this colt comes into the race as the #14 ranked turf sprinter. He has not run a route race since week 2461, and has not run a mile since 2405. However, his owner has seen something in his last 4 races that seems to indicate a desire for longer races. In his last race, the Grade 1 Rising Sun Spring Cup here in Japan at 7f, he closed from 7 back to miss by a mere 3-1/2 at the wire. Somehow, the race was so tight that he managed to finish 9th. His previous race, at 5.5f, again showed him running out of time at the finish. In 7 races this year, he has a record of 7:1-1-0. All of these have been in sprints, and most resulted in him running out of room. He is a colt that is based out of Japan, having run here 4 times in his last 8 races. He has never run better than 6th here. Riding this weekend will be Louis Fenner (10.8%, 32%). It will be interesting to see whether this career sprinter will relish the added distance or whether sprinting is his limit. Without any real hints at this distance, it’s hard to say; wild card
Brief Race Predictions: El Nino Rapido will blaze through majority of the race. The biggest question is how far ahead he will be, and if it will be far enough to win the race. My guess is no. Here is my best guess at the results:
1st – Niner Connection
2nd – Recoil
3rd – El Nino Rapido
Live Longshot – Three Man Colt