The G-2 Vermont BB Juvenile

The breath taking view from atop the Green Mountains in Vermont is so utterly enchanting that one feels they are taking a look at America’s version of utopia.  The entire state is postcard worthy — a panorama of beautiful, bubbling brooks, rolling emerald meadows, and quaint country roads that twist and turn around glorious Colonial-era homes.  I, for one, really feel it is an ideal place for a host of two-year old colts to see what the future holds for them.  Okay, okay, truth be told, I’ve never been to Vermont, but after seeing a handful of pictures on the state’s official website, you got to admit that was a dynamite description right?  Let’s take a look now, from the rail out, at fourteen horses who are all business as they try to make their own Vermont experience a winning one.

1  Olympic Battle (IRE)  (bluenyello)  –  Azamour colt is bred up, down, and all around for turf, but thus far he has shown he’s capable on the main track and trainer shows confidence by bringing him all the way across the pond for this one.  Got black type in his latest by closing from last in a small field of five as the second choice in Newmarket despite posting a declining speed figure.  Obviously has some talent, but with his closing style and the heavy turf pedigree, he may yet prove to be even more talented on the grass and I think it’s more likely we’ll see him running in the 2,000 Guineas on the first Saturday of May next year than the Bluegrass Derby.

2  Sword Breaker  (topicount4)  –  Gets favored status over a quartet of 6-1 shots off a couple of easy victories in cheap allowance races.  Seeking the Gold colt was also favored in that pair and is the first foal from a Danzig mare that won 3 of 13.  Respect his speed and upside, but it looks to me like top-notch trainer was just looking to pick up a couple of easy checks in Jamaica, and true, this colt did get the money, but he ships for the first time this week and is up against more speed than he has been thus far in his short career.

3  Sandstroll  (viperfive)  –  Speedster was off the board for the first time in three starts in what was also his first stab at graded stakes foes last out in the G-3 Television Stakes.  Couldn’t wrestle the lead away from the ultra-talented Black Jack Blues that day and with a pretty fast colt directly to his inside again this week it’s possible he may succumb to the same kind of pressure and end up with the same kind of result.  He broke his maiden in an allowance race and I think the graded stakes experience helps him quite a bit, but he still looks just a notch below some of these in here and may benefit from some longer distances down the road.

4  Cat Five Cyclone  (ydracing3)  –  One of our 6-1 shots is 2 for 2 thus far and took a big step forward on the speed figure scale when winning the Queensland Juvenile Stakes last out.  Another who ships in from an exotic locale for this, but Mr. Greeley colt has acted like the consummate professional in both starts and has very good tactical speed that should make him a threat regardless of how the pace shapes up this week.  Think it’s going to take a speed figure in the 80’s to win this and, seeing as how he’s one of only two horses to have already accomplished that feat, he seems like an obvious contender.

5  Elite Groom Ted  (tempstable)  –  Trainer sends out another clone-bred of his former superstar Western Groom and this guy has the advantage of a run over the track already when he was third in stakes company back on Bluegrass Derby day.  Still a maiden, as the stakes try marked his debut, but he yielded quite a bit of experience in that effort as the winner exited that race 3 for 3 and hasn’t been seen since.  Probably wins a maiden race with ease and might have been a little green going ninth-to-third in his initial foray, but that try proves he fits here and wouldn’t be shocked to see him improve enough to be competitive this week.

6  Legendary Pegasus  (snappa5)  –  No secret what this trainer had in mind when he bred this guy as maiden winner sports a couple Kentucky Derby winning sires in his pedigree.  Makes the cross country trip after breaking his maiden in an expensive race in California, where he also topped Awesome Sakhiano.  Uh… for those of you wondering, Awesome Sakhiano was nominated to this race at one point this week, but it appears he didn’t draw in.  Sure don’t like getting a jump on the article only to get blindsided like that, but I’ll go ahead and leave the reference in and you can check out the stakes race in Utah to get a look at Awesome Sakhiano.  Now getting back to our Fusaichi Pegasus colt that did draw in — the speed figure he earned in his maiden triumph wasn’t eye popping, but style certainly was as he annexed the lead in the early going and then widened it at every call.  Cut out to be a star and, like Elite Groom Ted, wouldn’t be shocked if he improved enough to be competitive this week.

7  Stormy Gallop  (devry)  –  Stormy Atlantic colt exits the aforementioned G-3 Television Stakes, where he closed from far back to get the show money as a 14-1 longshot.  Topped Sandstroll that day, but still figure that one’s better as he dueled with the winner before fading to fourth and this guy clunked up for third.  Gets another furlong to set up his rally this week, but he’s a big price on the board again and have to think he gets shuffled back too far to make much of an impact.  He’s the first foal from a dam that won 9 of 43 and a couple hundred thousand dollars, but she was more talented on turf than dirt and perhaps this one’s got turf in his future too.

8  Priest Of Chaos  (greeny)  –  Roan colt by Monarchos has bagged two of three, but the speed figures have been stuck in neutral and won’t get him anywhere near the winner’s circle this week.  He’s another who’s got a couple Kentucky Derby winning sires in his pedigree, but, unlike Legendary Pegasus, it doesn’t appear we’ll see a step forward and it’s going to take major improvement to be competitive with the likes of these this week.  Beat nothing of notice in his last race and, when you add that up with the fact that he’s making his first foray into stakes waters this week, you get a legitimate longshot with little chance of hitting the board.

9  American Tattoo  (mikehusker)  –  Son of first-year sire Eddington sports a nice name with an even better lesson, for instance, never ever get a tattoo on foreign soil.  Trust me on that one.  Big, brown colt has posted some gaudy speed figures, including the field’s fastest, earned last out going gate-to-wire in allowance company.  Another making his first try at stakes types, but two of the horses he topped last out exited that race to win stakes in their next, so any argument about whether he fits in here or not should fall on deaf ears.  Proved he doesn’t need the lead in his maiden breaker and have to believe his tactical speed will make him super tough this week.  Looking for a knock?  Only loss came at the hooves of Pied Piper, who was then second to Olympic Battle in that one’s stakes victory.  He’s improved mightily off that effort though and looks like he’s got a good shot of becoming Eddington’s first stakes winner in Sim history.

10  Winter Is Coming  (sunshine34)  –  Second in big field of sixteen to start his career, but who did he face?  Winner of that race came back to finish fifth in allowance NW2L company and third place horse is 13-1 in an allowance race this week.  Broke his maiden last out despite showing zero improvement and his speed figures pale in comparison to most of these.  Like this one’s pedigree, but think he’s a notch below stakes types at this point of his career and, like many of these, may turn out to be better as a router than a sprinter.

11  Dusty Kitten  (roberto)  –  Kitten’s Joy colt has made his living thus far by running in all three legs of the restricted DUR Freshman Sire Series, so he’s been facing pretty much the same company each time out and none of them look to be world beaters at this stage of their career.  This is a half brother to retired, $3 million earner Daneye and a stakes placed three-year old, but the speed figures wouldn’t draw the interest of a cop trying to meet a quota and, when he can’t improve them running against the same bunch of tomato cans three times, how’s he supposed to do it tackling tougher company and shipping half way across the world?  His best efforts have come on the dirt, but a repeat of those tries still won’t get him within eight lengths of this week’s winner.

12  Fort Straight  (ontarget)  –  Longest shot on the board broke his maiden in an allowance NW3L for two-year olds.  In February of all things.  How a race like that gets carded I don’t know, but I digress.  This one’s by an unheralded sire (who I have since learned was winless in three starts in real life) I’d never even heard of until I saw him here — you really do learn something new every day — and while you can forgive the lackluster turf effort, it’s a mystery as to why he shows up here after getting stomped on in G-3 company last out.  Finished well behind a couple of these that day and wouldn’t you want to regroup and try to rebuild his confidence in an easier spot rather than walking him off the plank against this kind?  The speed figures would probably make him a longshot even in allowance races and you got to think any placing above the twelfth he posted in the G-3 last out would be a major surprise.

13  Cool Bluff  (toplight)  –  Nicely-bred colt stole a cheap maiden race — hmm, much like Sword Breaker — to kick off his career, but that was nothing more than a paid workout as he beat only four other horses that day and the runner-up has since returned to run sixth in an even cheaper maiden race.  Strapping brown colt stepped it up nicely against stakes foes last out however, with a game second in Iowa and that, along with his tactical speed, should make him a contender in here.  Siblings haven’t done much at all, but it seems like the Pine Bluff x Storm Cat cross yields at least one stakes winner in the Sim each year and maybe this guy will be the one this year.

14  Extradition  (quagmire)  –  Speed figures going north since the maiden breaker, and that’s a good sign, but he hasn’t been well bet in any of his starts and his breeding suggests he should be better at three and four than he is now at two.  Horse he beat in his maiden breaker went on to win a stakes race last week in South Korea, but the horse that beat him in debut finished behind Elite Groom Ted in stakes company a few weeks ago.  Wide post doesn’t make a difference for this deep closer, but would still have to see some improvement this week to contend and that’s not a given against this field.  Think he’ll turn out to be a solid horse, but kind of feel like a fourth or a fifth is the ceiling for him this week.

Selections  –

Since these are two-year olds, and we now what a handful they can be, let’s open the wallet a bit and come up with a winning ticket that still leaves some room for error.

9 with 4, 5, 13 with 4, 5, 6, 13