Top Three Year Old Sprinters Meet in Mexico
This week in
This race is far from an ordinary sort of affair, with many questions to be answered as a number of trainers try to determine the future paths of their horses. We are not simply looking at a field of high class sprinters here. We have a couple of the cream of last year’s two year old crop, working back into form after celebrating their third birthdays too hard. Then there are the one time Bluegrass Derby hopefuls who fell by the wayside and are revisiting the sprinting ranks to see if that is where they truly belong. Add the established three year old sprinters, and a couple of up and comers showing signs of making the grade, and we find ourselves with a race full of intrigue with almost limitless possibilities. The bookmakers are also in a state of pandemonium and have framed a market where the favorite will go around at 6/1, while half the field is at single figure odds, and the rank outsider is kept safe at a respectful 21/1.
Previous results of The Great Fishing Hole Stakes were:
2000 – Muskrat Ghost – RO – 1.10.4 – SR 97
2001 – Bruise Hogan – farache15 – 1.10.0 – 103
2002 – King’s Ransom – theburglar – 1.09.2 – 113
2003 – Atakachaw –
2004 – Galileo’s Gold – manni174 – 1.09.0 – 116
2005 – Court Case – champ2000 – 1.09.8 – 100
The history books tell us that this event should be completed in under 1.10, and that the winner will most probably need to run a solid triple digit speed figure. Whichever horse is victorious on Saturday will know he has earned his place on the honor board of this event.
We’ll take a look at all the runners, in racebook order:
From the inside gate will emerge Future Dancer, a stakes winning scratch homebred carrying the modest lines of Scrimshaw / Future Storm / Nice Dancer, he’s doing a sterling job setting the pace, as the leading earner in the first crop representing his young sire. Defying his unfashionable breeding, he began his career with three excellent runs which returned big dividends for supporters of the shaggy3 stable. His maiden victory on debut was rewarded with a 14/1 return. At his second start he ran second at better than 20/1 and followed that up with an allowance win, once more at the generous price of 9/1. Extended to the mile for a couple of route starts at stakes level, mid-field results convinced the trainer to return to sprinting, where Future Dancer rounded out 2005 with a second and a third in stakes races. His first run for 2006 may prove the best guide towards this week, as he saluted in a full stakes field over the six furlongs he will be asked to cover here. His three subsequent starts have been over longer sprint trips and although two of them brought home checks, they may have been stretching the limits of his range. The oddsmakers are being generous once again, and although the inside barrier won’t be a great advantage as he’ll probably settle off the pace, the draw should allow him to take up a position within striking range of the leaders.
From 2 jumps Vena Flow. One of the up and coming brigade, he comes into this with the remarkable form line of four wins from five trips to the races. Bred by current owner / trainer sherwood, he came into being as a result of the mating of Vena Cava (A.P. Indy / Key to the Mint) with Came Home. Vena Cava raced his entire career with sherwood, but never really lived up to his exceptional bloodlines, winning four from twenty-five in a career which never ventured beyond allowance level. He’s more than made up for it as a producer, however, as Vena Flow wasted no time in setting about repaying the breeding costs. Winning his maiden on debut, he then disposed of a couple of allowance fields in successive starts, before venturing to the elite levels. His only loss came at his fourth run, when taking on Grade 3 company in The Thousand Islands Stakes, but he bounced back impressively four weeks ago, against ungraded opposition. As his potential is as yet relatively untapped, Vena Flow certainly can’t be dismissed this week, even though he’s taking on some of the cream of his age group. Stable followers are sure to be lining up to accept the 20/1 on offer, and they may well be lining up again in the collect queue after the event.
Lining up in stall number 3 will be Tortured Vision, a solid black type performer with all four wins since his maiden debut victory coming at black type level. The jump to graded racing has not proved fruitful on the two occasions when he’s taken on the higher classes, but there were possibly excuses. His first attempt, when ninth of fourteen in The Vermont BB Juvenile-G2, came at just his third run, so can possibly be dismissed as too early. Two starts back he drew wide when sixth in Florida’s Swale Stakes-G3, but still beat most of the field home. The question mark will remain until he actually proves himself against graded company, but the bookmakers are keeping him safe, ignoring the graded form to frame their market around his impressive times and speed ratings. Tortured Vision is a son of Vision and Verse, bred by his trainer simond5 to the mare he part owns, Dear Prospector (Capote / Mr. Prospector). Dear Prospector, a winner of four minor events, is already the dam of one Grade 1 winning mare, Cap the Deputy (Deputy Minister), and it seems almost inevitable that Tortured Vision will soon join his older sibling as a graded winner. If jockey P.Elliot decides, or is instructed to lead, he should have no difficulty in securing the coveted rails position, as those drawn inside him are both likely to drop back early. Connections can reasonably expect a prominent effort again this weekend.
Stall 4 is the starting position for Halfaworldaway, foxvbullet’s son of Belong to Me from the gender-altered horse Whenworldscollide (Gone West / Verbatim).His presence sends all form study into total confusion. Last year’s eclipse award winning two year old colt, like many others, was set on the path to the triple crown. He obviously deserved his position as early market favorite for the Bluegrass Derby and his efforts over the classic distance, particularly his second in the California Derby-G1, leave the jury well and truly out on the question of his preferred distance range. With three wins and a second, including dual victories at Grade 3 level, from five sprints, he has the score on the board. The early market has him sharing the top line of betting, as it would clearly be foolish to underestimate a colt with his career record. He’ll lose nothing from the rider as M. Olsen is riding in superlative form. The question remains as to whether he can recapture his two year old brilliance so soon after a distance preparation. If he can, then he’s obviously a major threat.
Remember Morgadio will line up in stall 5 and is another genuine up and comer in the field, facing the starter for just the seventh time, having finished ITM in ungraded stakes at each of his last three appearances. A son of Storm Cat from the gender altered Grade 2 winner Morgadio (Galileo / Mississippi Count by Kingmambo), he continues the family line for breeder / trainer zielissimo, who also raced the predecessor. Remember Morgadio didn’t hit the track until earlier this year, but when he did arrive, he did so with authority. Winning his maiden on debut, he took out an allowance at his third start and followed up immediately with a stakes victory at start number four. Stakes third and second fill the CV thus far and after being freshened over the last eight weeks, he steps up a class for his most ambitious assignment this week. He’s never failed to take home a check, and connections can expect another big showing here. Bookmakers are recognizing his potential, taking no risks by placing him on the third line of betting. Race tactics will be interesting, as he’s shown a preference for leading and once he takes the lead, he’s never been beaten. There are several runners here who may want the front, and with top jockey Mi Jones aboard, if Remember Morgadio can gain the ascendancy early, it will require some effort for those behind to close the gap.
Barrier 6 is the starting position for equal favorite, Mr Ap Cat Bg, already a five times stakes winner in a career which boasts eight wins from sixteen, and almost $300,000 in the bank. Bred from scratch by rgrg using Mountain Cat / A.P. Indy / Mr. Prospector, he thrived on work as a young horse, visiting the races ten times as a two year old, never going home without a check, and securing the winners purse on six occasions. His first three races were the standard steps taken by the better brigade of classy runners; victory at maiden, allowance and stakes level. Then to The High Rollers Juvenile-G2, where he ran fourth, missing the podium for the first and last time in 2005. His final six runs of the year, all in black type races, resulted in three wins, two seconds and a third. 2006 has not been quite as impressive thus far, but again he’s collected a check in five of six runs, winning twice. He comes into this off a triple digit rating allowance win, and he’s sure, once again to be in the mix when it counts. Tactics may be of great significance here, as most of his wins have been pillar to post. He can, however camp just off the pace, so if those speedsters drawn inside him become involved in a suicidal joust for the lead, Mr AP Cat Bg may simply take the sit and be in perfect position for the final surge.
From stall 7 comes Glide Scope, from the super-strong super group of stables. Like Bluegrass Derby winner Virtuoso, it could be argued that he is bred along ‘second tier’ lines, being by Charismatic, from Sister Soar, (Wild Again / Mr. Prospector) an afc2 ‘exclusive’ winner of five from thirty six, who never saluted in anything richer than a conditioned allowance. Glide Scope has already out-performed his dam in his eleven run career for super30, having won six of those appearances, three ungraded stakes and the highlight to date, The Lost in the Fog Stakes-G3, at his second run this year. Unlike many of his opponents this weekend, his routing experiments have been confined to the one run over a mile and although not disgraced, connections clearly concluded that his pacy, front running style was better suited to the shorter trips. Three starts ago Glide Scope put to bed one myth; that in order to win he had to lead, as he was headed and pressured throughout before triumphing in The French N Fast Memorial Stakes. His last two runs, The Bay Horse Stakes-G3 (sixth of twelve) and The Tubby Smith Special-G2 (seventh of fourteen) were slightly below par for this previously most consistent colt, but nowhere near sub-par enough to convince the bookmakers to be lenient. A return to his previous top form is a genuine possibility on Saturday.
Thane jumps from 8 and the measure of the depth of this field is borne out by the fact that this well performed colt is ranked the outsider of the field by those framing the betting markets. To have won at stakes level and been placed at Grade 3 indicates a degree of ability which probably deserves a tad more respect from those setting the prices. By Gone West from the fiat owned mare, My Love Buda (Sadlers Wells / Sister Love by Pursuit of Love), Thane is the second of the three progeny of the mare to achieve black type status, following and improving upon the stakes placed, now five year old mare, My Love Phyl (Kingmambo). But back to the career of this colt, who has raced throughout under the guidance of topicountc. Following an impressive turf victory on debut at two, Thane jumped straight into black type racing, registering two seconds from as many starts to round out his juvenile year. His birthday saw a change in surface, and he’s spent 2006 racing on the dirt. Instant victory in an ungraded stakes was followed by third of fourteen in The Lost in the Fog Stakes-G3. A couple of mid-field finishes at grade 3 standard, saw the topicountc drop Thane back to allowance racing for a leisurely confidence boosting win three weeks ago. He’s meeting some tough opposition here, but the stable is sure to support him at the luxurious price on offer, and the bottom line is that, were this colt to taste victory this weekend, it could in no way be described as a boilover.
Toxicsuperfreakout will alight from stall 9. Adding to the complexity of this race, he’s part of the ‘third dimension’. Not only do we have the established sprinters taking on the up and coming sprinters, but we also have a number of one time Bluegrass Derby aspirants returning to the shorter trip and looking to rebuild their careers. Held in great esteem in the early
From Gate 10 we will see Northern Blast, a winner of more than half his starts and over half a million dollars, this superbly bred son of Storm Cat / Seattle Slew / Buckpasser is currently ranked # 2 in the three year old sprinting division, due largely to a superb early career as a two year old, where he won twice at Grade 2 level and ran second in a Grade 1. Beginning to repay the massive breeding cost outlay from the outset, the jockeymax6 colt took the unusual path of debuting in an allowance. The stable clearly knew of the colt’s talent, as he went around as a short priced favorite, and won as expected. Next up it was straight into the black type mix, with another short priced conclusive win. Then up to The High Rollers Juvenile-G2, where he was at much more backable odds, due to stronger opposition. No matter, another comfortable win and he’s three from three and the sky’s the limit. Next step – Grade 1, the Hoserhead Juvenile where he finished second, without losing any gloss. Another Grade 2 win was sandwiched between solid graded runs to round out his two year old season. 2006 began with a soft win in a four horse allowance as a lead into an appearance at the equinics, where he ran fifth of twenty. A win and a second in mile ungraded stakes bring us up to date, and Northern Blast will run around at most generous double figure odds as he looks to improve on his already impressive five sprint wins from eight races over the shorter trips.
Crypto Flow will leave from gate 11. He looked likely to develop quickly into a world beater from the time he first stepped onto the track. After a close up second on debut, three consecutive wins followed, culminating in victory in The Trainer Stats Awards-G1, nine months ago. Sadly that was to be the pinnacle of his two year old season, but his solid, if not quite as spectacular 2006 to date indicates that he may well be on the way back to re-visiting the glory days. This year has seen him finish fourth of twenty at Grade 1 level in the equinics Ron Turcotte, a forgettable G3 effort, then a return to the winners list in an ungraded stakes, before a strong third last start in Kentucky’s The Tubby Smith Special-G2. Superbly bred by kyclocker, he’s a son of Cryptoclearance from the owner / trainer’s stakes winning dam Flow Futuristic, a daughter of Carson City / Sunday Silence. Increasing triple digit speed figures from his last two point to a return to competitive, top level racing and the bookmakers have reacted to his smart times recently by installing him as a worthy third in the betting. No rider is in better current form than M. Buck, and he’s sure to let Crypto Flow settled two or three lengths off the pace, before saving the best for when it matters.
Barrier 12 is the starting position for Northern Jones, a stakeswinning two year old for his previous trainer, who faces a huge jump in class here following his recent program, which has seen him more than paying his way at a lower level. Scratchbred with the blood of Smarty Jones / Deputy Minister / Secretariat, Northern Jones has returned a check in all but two of his fifteen races, having greeted the judge five times and banked over $100,000. He won his maiden on debut and a nine start two year old season saw additional wins at allowance and stakes level. 2006 saw Northern Jones restricted to allowance racing, until changing hands recently for a reputed four million dollars. He’s had the one start for reman12000, and that high strike rate trainer would not be lining him up at this level unless he had sound reason to expect a competitive effort. He’s not likely to seek the lead in this field, but may well settle handy and be within striking distance as they straighten.
Gate 13 will be occupied by Giant Run, bred from the top of the food chain, and continuing to justify the decision of surfer to retire a capable four year old early and send him, via the vet, to stud. Giant Run is a son of Giant’s Causeway, conceived when Dream West (Gone West / Danzig), a handy racehorse, was retired after scoring four wins from just fourteen starts. Patiently prepared by his breeder / trainer, who currently has only two horses in work, he was restricted to allowance racing as a two year old despite registering three wins and bringing home a check at each of his other two trips to the track. 2006 has seen a promotion to black type racing, and although he’s yet to break through at the higher level, he’s been the bridesmaid in one ungraded stake and two Grade3 events. He’s certainly overdue for that elusive black type win, and with the time and devotion being bestowed on such a small team, the trainer is sure to be rewarded before much longer. The bookies are showing him due respect, keeping him under control at single figure odds, testament to Giant Run’s consistency at this level of competition.
Senior Year will jump from the outside gate. He’s a scratchbred son of Lion Heart / Mr. Greeley / Chief’s Crown created by current trainer, theoc2. He’s a winner to date of four races from ten trips to the track and is another with great talent, but perhaps still searching for the optimum racing conditions. Winning his maiden on debut, the remainder of his two year old season comprised two seconds in allowances before a strong stakes win to round out the year. With those last two impressive runs over route distances, it made perfect sense to follow the triple crown trail. Sadly 2006 saw a very quick reality check, with the first two runs of the season bringing down the track finishes against Grade 3 opposition. Dropped back to ungraded stakes and allowance racing, the form instantly returned with two more victories before a final tilt at the
The Odds Makers opinion:
6/1 – Halfaworldaway, Mr AP Cat Bg
7/1 – Crypto Flow
8/1 – Remember Morgadio, Glide Scope
The Computer opinion:
Northern Blast – 2
Crypto Flow – 3
Halfaworldaway – 9
Mr AP Cat Bg – 21
Toxicsuperfreakout – 41