Three Chimneys Preview: 14 Fillies Trying to Get Into BB Distaff

PREVIEW:

Kentucky

Sunday, October 12, 2014    /   3:00  PM  EST  /  Race ID:  1233313

 

THE THREE CHIMNEYS STAKES       —       Grade 1

 

Purse   $500,000

Distance  9 Furlongs

Restricted to 3 YO And Up, Fillies and Mares

 

 

Desperation.   That’s what the Grade 1 Three Chimneys Stakes is usually all about every year.

Fillies who are on the cusp of trying to get into the Breeders’ Bowl Distaff usually grace this race on the second weekend in October, trying to get the last few points that will get them into the Breeders’ Bowl in four weeks.

Some of these might have already made their way into the big dance four weeks from now, depending on how the chips fall with some others ranked above them who might decide to go in other Breeders’ Bowl races–like Secret Colony in here, who seems to like running in much longer races than the 9 furlongs this group will see on Sunday in Kentucky’s $500,000 Group 1 Three Chimneys Stakes on the fast dirt.

There is a ton of early speed in this race, and there are also three morning line co-favorites. Malachite Dragon, War Mask and Buy The Moon are all listed at 7/1.

The race seems to favor the closers, with so much early speed here. A big speed duel could develop on the front end here with about half this field possessing legitimate front-end speed, and there are three or four decent deep closers  in  here who would love nothing better than to see exactly that happen in the Three Chimneys Stakes on Sunday.

Where the career earnings are usually listed, you’ll see instead the rankings of each filly or mare in the classic older dirt fillies division.  That should give you a better idea of where each ranks in the division and exactly how close they are and what they need to do here Sunday to get to the Breeders’ Bowl.

 
( 1 )   PARTNER MATERIAL   (KY)             Owner: Bacchus Racing

4 YO Filly              (Distorted Humor x K‘s My Day (Sadler’s Wells))

Odds: 12/1                Career Record: 18 8-7-0                         Ranking:  278

In a field that has quite a bit of speed, Partner Material is probably not the speediest of all. She’s pretty quick out of the gates and she loves to run near the front in her races. And, she is one of the few front-enders who can hang in there late at the end of her races. Look at her record. She’s been first or second in 15 of her 18 starts. Ledwith’s 4 year old daughter of Distorted Humor has won four of her last eight races, and she’s been on the front end in the first three calls in seven of those eight races. Most of those events were allowances, but look what she did last time out in her first stakes appearance since she ran in the Grade 3 Chicago Oaks 14 months ago. She popped a career high 111 speed figure while destroying the field in a 9.5 furlong listed stakes in Canada a month ago, and she won on the front end all the way (of course). Hey, that’s the way she likes to roll. She had been running in mostly ten furlong events lately, before she dropped down in distance last time out. Her previous career high speed figure was 107, so the lights really came on last time out in that listed stakes. That 111 speed figure would have been good enough to most probably win or finish in the top three in this field, so the formula is really simple for Ledwith’s filly on Sunday. All she has to do is repeat what she did in Canada last time out, and she’ll still be around at the end of this race.

 

( 2 )   SOUP TO NUTS   (KY)                     Owner: MTK76 Stables

4 YO Filly (Uncle Mo x Money From Kirby (Unbridled’s Song))

Odds: 10/1                       Career Record: 16 6-3-2                  Ranking: 180

Soup To Nuts tried to punch her ticket into the Breeders’ Bowl Distaff last time out in the Grade 1 Superfilly Handicap, and she gained a lot of ground late. But it wasn’t quite enough ground. So she’s here in the Grade 1 Three Chimneys trying again. MTK76 Racing’s 4 year old daughter of Uncle Mo has run speed figures between 102 and 106 her last four races, and she won the only stakes win of her career in that stretch of races, when she finished first in a 9-furlong listed stakes in Iowa in late June. She beat a Grade 2 winner there in Unfixed, who finished third in this race last year. You’ll probably find her near the back of the pack early here, unless something weird really happens with Soup To Nuts (like, maybe if she makes the lead early, something she does NOT like to do). This is only the third graded event for the daughter of Uncle Mo, and she’s going to have to step up her game against this bunch on Sunday in Kentucky. The fact that her speed figures have suddenly become consistent lately are a good sign. That’s for sure.

 

( 3 )   MALACHITE DRAGON   (AUS)                Owner: Given Stables

4 YO Filly                      (Hussonet x Dream Dragon (Deputy Minister))

Odds: 7/1                  Career Record: 21 11-2-4                        Ranking: 34

Malachite Dragon is one of several in here who can really help her BB Distaff cause a great deal by finishing in the top three in the Three Chimneys on Sunday. She’s ranked 34th in the division, so she’s right there…almost. Dan Silver’s 4 year old Aussie-bred daughter of Hussonet comes in here extremely hot, having won seven of her last eight starts, including the biggest win of her career last time out in the Grade 3 Chicago Matron, where she popped a career high 111 speed figure. It was only the second start in her last eight races where she wasn’t in front at all four calls of the race. She beat a pretty impressive field there in Illinois. There were six other graded winners in the race, including the Grade 1 winner After School, who finished third in that race. Malachite Dragon dueled on the front end with another filly called Bath’s greatest, who she will see again here in Kentucky this weekend. That win was impressive for the daughter of Hussonet, because Bath’s Greatest has won eight of her 14 career starts. That was really a two-horse race there in Illinois. Can Malachite Dragon come back off the greatest effort of her career and win here? Well, she’s on a roll, that’s much is certain. And, she’ll probably be dueling on the front end with Bath’s Greatest again. But this probably won’t be a two-horse race, and those two could be facing a great deal of pressure early and late in Kentucky on Sunday. She needs a good finish here, if she’s going to make the Breeders’ Bowl field in about 4 weeks.

 

( 4 )  BUY THE MOON   (KY)             Owner: Flagdown Stables

4 YO Filly                 (Malibu Moon x All The Riches (St. Liam))

Odds: 7/1                   Career Record: 21 5-6-3               Ranking: 28

She’s got a lot of starts for a four year old, and she’s got only one stakes win in all those starts. But, Flagdown Racing’s Buy The Moon is still one of three morning line favorites in this race. A close look at her past performance charts tells you why. Draw a line through her last start (a sixth place finish in the Grade 3 Chicago Matron). In the four starts before that, she ran speed figures of 107, 108, 109 and 110. That’s pretty consistent. And, that’s also pretty hot, especially when you consider that three of those four races were two Grade 2’s and a Grade 1. She also finished second or third in those three graded events. What probably happened to her in that Grade 3 Chicago Matron was that she didn’t like the less than stellar track conditions there? I don’t know. I do know that it was her first time running on anything other than an fast dirt track. So, yeah, let’s go with (A) She didn’t like the off track there. There is no (B) that I know of, so we really should go with (A) here. Hey, maybe I’m right. The point is that Flagdown’s filly is fast. And, she’s good. Very, very good. Good enough to win this race and good enough to win her way into the big Breeders’ Bowl ladies race–IF she’s on her game Sunday in Kentucky, that is. That’s it. All that Buy The Moon has to do is run her usual race, and that will probably be good enough for her to win here and move up the rankings in this division.

 

( 5 )   BERRI DUET   (KY)                    Owner: Tulloch Racing

4 YO Filly                           (Zensational x Sophie’s Duet (Forest Wildcat))

Odds: 8/1                  Career Record: 15 6-3-1                Ranking: 46

One of those who doesn’t mind what kind of surface she runs on, apparently, is Tulloch Racing’s filly, Berri Duet. The 4 year old daughter of Zensational has run well on every kind of track condition she’s come up against. One third (5) of her 15 starts have come in graded events, and she actually won one of those, the 8.5-furlong Grade 3 Jenny Wiley back in April of this year. She popped a pretty nice 111 speed figure there, and that wasn’t even the highest speed figure of her career. She ran a 112 speed figure two starts prior to that in an easy listed stakes win in Arizona. She illustrates, more than just about any filly in this race, how weird horse breeding can be. Her sire, Zensational, is a sprint sire. Her dam, Sophie’s Duet, it out of Forest Wildcat, who has been known to throw more than a few good sprinters in the game and in real life. And, Berri’s Duet, well, she’s only run in one sprint race in her entire career. Go figure. It shows what a great job Tulloch Racing does in thinking outside the box with its horses. He’s turned this pedigree into a grade 3 winner, and now, all the filly who was born to sprint has to do is win this Grade 1 9-furlong race in Kentucky on Sunday, and she’s probably headed to the biggest of the ladies’ races on Breeders’ Bowl Day–the Distaff.

 

( 6 )   SCHLONGOSAURUS REX   (JPN)               Owner: Given Stables

4 YO Filly (Summer Bird x Deputy Minister x Damascus)

Odds: 9/1                        Career Record: 16 7-4-0                                   Ranking: 30

The Japanese-bred filly by Given Stables was entered in her first graded stakes race ever last time out. She came into the Grade 1 Superfilly in New York after a convincing win in a 9.5-furlong listed stakes in British Columbia. Some probably thought it was a wasted trip for a filly so inexperienced in stakes racing. Schlongosaurus Rex (why am I having trouble typing that name? lol.) came into the Grade 1 Superfilly in New York as nearly an 11/1 shot. But that didn’t stop her from tracking the #2 ranked filly in the classic dirt division, Supah Quality and finishing second to that one. It was really a two-filly race all the way. No one else really got that close to that pair, with the third place finisher four lengths back. It was pretty surprising to see the inexperienced daughter of Summer Bird not back up to the rest of the field, or worse, get swamped in the home stretch, because that was a very strong field in the Superfilly Handicap. She’ll try to use her tremendous early foot to do the same here this weekend in Kentucky. If she can, you can probably look for her to be in the BB Distaff in four weeks. She’s got 16 starts already, as a four year old, because it took her four tries to break her maiden. That doesn’t seem like a lot, until you remember that this is a Given Stables filly, and they usually fire early. It took this one a little while to develop, but she’s popped 109 and 110 speed figures the last two times out in stakes company, and that’s what you like to see coming into a race like this.

 

( 7 )   DERBYFEVERDOTCOM   (KY)               Owner: Selurnivek Racing

3 YO Filly                 (Bernardini x Mr. Prospector x Nijinsky 2nd)

Odds: 16/1                 Career Record: 13 6-1-1                      Ranking: 12

Derbhyfeverdotcom is the only three year old in this field. And, she’s just about as regally bred as they come. She’s a scratch-bred by Bernardini, with Mr. Prospector in the dam sire slot and Nijinsky 2nd in the dam’s dam sire slot. If that’s not blue, nothing is. She’s just the opposite of Schlongosaurus Rex. Derbyfeverdotcom has raced almost exclusively in stakes. She had seven starts last season as a two year old, and five of them were graded stakes races that got her into the BB Juvenile Filly. This year, as a three year old, she started off a win in the Grade 1 Equinics (Young Guns), for three year old fillies at 9 furlongs. Then, she inexplicably never won again…until last time out, that is. Angela actually had this filly going for the Bluegrass Derby at one point, when she entered her in the Florida Derby Lock Prep for the boys, where she finished a very respectable third, beaten 1 ¾ lengths, after roaring from dead last early in that race. From there, she went to the Bluegrass Oaks and the Chestnut Stakes. She gained ground late in both races, but she finished seventh and eighth, respectively. It was even worse in the Players’ Club National Oaks where she finished 11th and threw the lowest speed figure since she ran in the BB as a two year old. Last time out, she got into a conditioned allowance event in New York, where she eked out a win late. Maybe it’s the confidence builder this filly needs to get back on track. Looking at her running lines, it looks like it’s a simple matter of wanting more distance. But when she ran in that 10-furlong Player’s Club National Oaks, it was the longest race of her career, and that was a real clunker for her. She’s ranked 12th, and she’s got 100 entry points, which is enough to just squeak into the Distaff field in four weeks, if that’s what Angela wants to do with her. But a win here would show that Derbyfeverdotcom is really back–maybe for good–to the form she exhibited as a two year old.

 

( 8 )   BATH’S GREATEST   (GER)             Owner:  Bristolred Racing

4 YO Filly                 (Monsun (GER) x Nijinsky 2nd x Forty Niner)

Odds: 8/1                   Career Record: 14 8-1-2                   Ranking: 25

For Bath’s Greatest, it’s all about her last race, really. She ran in the Grade 3 Chicago Matron Handicap with Malachite Dragon, who is in this race on Sunday in Kentucky. Those two broke sharply out of the gates and quickly established themselves on the lead, alone together. It wasn’t long before it became clear to the crowd in Illinois that day that the Matron was going to be a two-filly race. No one else that day even came close to those two at any point in the Chicago Matron. The track conditions were slightly off that day, so you didn’t see any fast fractions that day in Illinois. But it seemed like when you watched that race, it was just going to be Bath’s Greatest and Malachite Dragon. Remember that. Despite the fact that there is a great deal of speed in the Three Chimneys, these two seem to be the most legitimate of all the front-end speed fillies and mares in the Three Chimneys. Malachite Dragon pulled off at the end to win that day, throwing a big speed figure that day. But Bath’s Greatest could turn that around today. She’s won six of her last nine starts coming in here. But she’s lost her last two. Can she turn that around today? The German-bred daughter of Monsun who belongs to Bristolred Racing just might be able to turn the tables today, not only on Malachite Dragon but this entire field. She’s a very good filly right now. But she’s only got 14 career starts. I think this filly can only get better as time goes on. She needs a good finish here to get into the BB Distaff in four weeks. She probably doesn’t need to win, but she needs to get some points out of this race to assure herself a place in the Breeders’ Bowl, if that’s where Bristol Red wants to take her. She belongs here, and I believe she belongs in the Distaff in four weeks. She’s that talented. And, she’s definitely one to watch here in Kentucky on Sunday.

 

( 9 )   SECRET COLONY   (KY)                        Onwer:   Jrogue Racing Stables

4 YO Filly                        (Dynaformer x Pleasant Colony x Secretariat)

Odds: 11/1                    Career Record: 16 7-1-2                          Ranking: 195

Secret Colony, at first glance, is a puzzle. She’s a four year old daughter of Dynaformer, and she’s got Pleasant Colony and Secretariat back there in that scratch-bred breeding of hers. Jrogue racing built a stamina monster here, with just enough flash of that old Big Red speed on the back end. After her first four races, three of which were on the turf, Secret Colony hit the dirt for good, and she’s been running long distance races–none of these 8.5 and 9 furlong races for this girl. No, sir. She’s got way too much stamina for that. So what is she doing here in the Three Chimneys this Sunday? She’s ranked 195th in the classic dirt division, so if she wanted to run in the BB Distaff, she would almost have to win here. But I don’t think that’s the plan for Secret Colony. I’m not entirely certain, but with that 13th place ranking in the long dirt division, Jrogue racing might just be using this race for a tuneup for the Dirt Marathon in the Breeders’ Bowl in four weeks. When you think about it, it makes a great deal of sense. It’s only four weeks until the Breeders’ Bowl, this filly has been running in races that were between 11 furlongs and 16 furlongs in distance for the past year, including wins in a couple of 12 and 13 furlong listed stakes. She’s also run in some 16-furlong grade 1 events, and this race in Kentucky this weekend might be just the tuneup she needs for the marathon in four weeks. She’s certainly bred for it, and she seems to love the longer distances. She’s a quality beast, and when you look at her pedigree, she’s definitely one of the better bred fillies in this race, a filly that‘s built to run forever and a day compared to the rest of these.

 

( 10 )   HAM IN CHARGE   (JPN)                          Owner: Acarigua Racing

5 YO Mare                      (Commands (AUS) x Known Ham (Mr. Prospector))

Odds: 33/1             Career Record: 24 4-0-4                  Ranking:  4,541

Ham In Charge is the long shot here. The five year Australian-bred daughter of Commands is owned by Acarigua Racing, and her ranking is the lowest of all these in the classic dirt division. She’s only won four races in her 24 career starts, and she hasn’t won a race since June of 2013. She’s pretty well bred, with that Mr. Prospector dam of hers being stakes placed. But nearly every time she’s been over a mile, she’s retreated late in races. Anything up to a mile, and she’s fine. She either wins or gains ground late, but that’s been pretty much her top distance so far–a mile. So, here she is, in Kentucky, running with a bunch of fillies and mares who are mostly in the top 50 in this division and who are desperately trying to get the points to get to the BB Distaff. Ham In Charge, even with a win here, probably wouldn’t have enough points to make the BB field in four weeks, but she embodies the magical part of racing–the long shot. You always like to see horses like this is races that they don’t seem to belong in. And, you pull for them, just because they’re long shots. It’s all about the dream. And, besides, who’s to say this mare isn’t sitting on a big race, a race that could maybe lead her to bigger and better things down the road. She’s got a tough row to hoe against this bunch in Kentucky on Sunday, but if you believe in miracles and dreams, this is the horse for you to put your hopes in on Sunday. I love seeing horses like this in these big races, and, secretly, I do pull for them to do well. They say a million things can happen in a horse race, and only one of them is good. Let’s hope that something good happens for the Japanese-bred Ham In Charge this weekend.

 

( 11 )  WAR MASK   (KY)                            Owner:  Cocoabeach Racing Stables

5 YO Mare                          (Indian Charlie x Mr. Prospector x Damascus)

Odds: 7/1                  Career Record: 16 9-3-1                            Ranking: 21

War Mask has found her best form in her last nine starts. The five year old daughter of Indian Charlie has reeled for 100+ speed figures in every single one of those races, and she’s won five of them, and finished second twice and third once. She’s a money earner, that’s for sure. And, she’s definitely got a nose for the finish line. She had won four of five races, including wins in the Grade 2 Boquet O’ Daisies in Canada and the Grade 3 Fort Lostinthewoods Misery Stakes, where she ran 109 speed figures. Then she hit the first Grade 1 races of her career in her last two starts. Two starts back, she never really got untracked in the Grade 1 Very Vane, finishing up the track there. But then she took a couple months off and she came back fresh for the Grade 1 Superfilly, where she ran with a lot of these she’ll see in Kentucky on Sunday. She lagged near the back of the pack early, but she made a tremendous move late, and she threw a 107 speed figure to finish third there. She finished four lengths off the lead there, but that’s okay. She had been off two months, and she might not have been as fit as her connections, Cocoabeach Racing, wanted her that day. If that was, indeed, the case in the Grade 1 Superfilly last month, then this filly could turn up huge on Sunday in Kentucky. There’s a lot of real front end speed in this race for her to run into late, and that could be the key to her chances in the Three Chimneys. She’s ranked #21 in the division, so a top three finish would probably be enough to get her into the BB Distaff, if that’s where Cocoabeach Racing wants to take her in our weeks. She’s stepping up half a furlong in distance from that Superfilly Handicap effort, and she’ll need every inch of ground she can get, with her late closing kick. Let’s hope she doesn’t run out of ground on Sunday in Kentucky. She will definitely be charging late at the front-runners, gobbling up huge chunks of ground late.

 

( 12 )   SHOWTIME BLUES   (KY)                            Owner:  Psyduck215 Racing

4 YO Filly                        (Bernardini x Dancing Empire (Empire Maker))

Odds: 16/1                      Career Record: 23 10-6-2                 Ranking: 43

Showtime Blues, a four year old daughter of Bernardini, is extremely well bred, being out of an Empire Maker dam by the name of Dancing Empire. She’s run a ton of races for a four year old filly (23 in all), but look how many she’s won. Ten. That’s a lot of wins for a filly who’s run a pretty grueling schedule that didn’t see her take a whole lot of breaks in her career. In her last six races, she’s run anywhere from 8.5 furlongs to 15 furlongs, trying to find the distance she belongs at. Earlier this season, she ran in the Grade 1 Original Margarita Invitational and the Grade 1 Orange Blossom, where she didn’t do particularly well. But right before that she scored the only graded win of her career, in Texas, in the Grade 2 Bom Bom Memorial at ten furlongs. Her career best speed figure is a 107, which is not quite up to par with a lot of these she’ll be running against in Kentucky on Sunday. But last race, she perked up after running a series of sub 100 speed figure allowance events. She popped big (106) in the speed figure department in a 9-furlong open allowance event in California, where the competition is tough. Is it tough enough to make her a viable contender back east in Kentucky, against these? Maybe. She’s got a ton of front end speed. That much is certain. She can definitely run early with this bunch. But can she hang on at the end? That’s the big question for Showtime Blues from Psyduck215 Racing this weekend. It was really nice to see her get back to running 100+ speed figures in her last race out, coming in here against these.

 

( 13 )   SIREN SERENADE   (JPN)                         Owner: Horned Frog Racing

6 YO Mare                        (Afleet x Jawdropping (Awesome Again))

Odds: 12/1                        Career Record: 35 8-8-7                                Ranking: 41

She came oh so close two years ago in the Breeders’ Bowl Distaff, finishing second to a three year old long shot by the name of Final Exit. No shame there. But that was two years ago, and the six year old Siren Serenade is still hanging in there, giving it her all in mostly graded stakes this year. She hasn’t won since March, when she scored in the 9-furlong Ramp Art Handicap in Florida. That’s the distance she’ll see in Kentucky on Sunday. But it hasn’t been a very good year since that win in Florida for the six year old mare sired by Afleet. She’s only picked up one check since that win in the Ramp Art, and that was two starts back in a listed stakes here in Kentucky, where she finished a decent fourth. She’ll be trying to recapture some of that 2012 magic she showed where she nearly brought home a BB trophy for her connections, Horned Frog Racing. She’s had her best speed figures at about the 8.5-9 furlong distance races in her career. She is ranked #41 in this division, so that means she’s still got a shot at getting in the Breeders’ Bowl Distaff for the second time in her career. But she would just about need a win here in order to achieve that. She might just be able to get in with a second or maybe a third place finish.

 

( 14 )   THE FIRST AGE    (KY)                         Owner: Davarto Racing Stables

4 YO Filly (Awesome Again x The Eldar (Sadler’s Wells))

Odds: 8/1                        Career Record: 23 4-9-4                            Ranking: 93

This is a pretty interesting filly here that Davarto Racing has here in The First Age. She started off her career on the turf as a very early two year old, and it didn’t take the four year old daughter of Awesome Again to start busting 90+ speed figures two seasons ago. She tanked pretty badly in the Derby de English last season, and that’s when Davarto decided to move her to the dirt permanently. And, it’s been a great move. He’s got this filly in position to get into the BB Distaff in four weeks, but she’s ranked #93 in this division, and she’s almost got to have a win here to get into the Breeders’ Bowl. She’s 8/1 in this race this weekend, but she’s been running in mostly listed stakes, which accounts for a bit lower ranking than some of the other favorites here. She’s got decent speed figures, that’s for sure. And, she’s finished in the top three in all of her races dating back to November of last season, and that’s pretty consistent. In fact, she’s one of the more consistent fillies in this field. She’s one of the few deep closers in a field that is chock full of speed, and that could definitely work to her advantage if a speed duel develops on the front end, which is a scenario that’s almost certain to happen in the 2014 Three Chimneys. She hasn’t finished more than a couple lengths behind the winners in most of her races dating back to last November and she really seems to appreciate those 9-9.5 furlong distances. She’ll get 9 furlongs here, and she’ll be running late at these, if she runs true to form. But can she get to the winner’s circle, which would almost guarantee her a spot in the BB Distaff in four weeks. That’s going to be tough, but this filly is definitely capable. Watch her early. If she drops back of the pack and gets a nice, ground-saving trip, she might be one to watch running at the leaders late this weekend.