Minor Upset Tipped in Michigan Grade 2
This week in
Previous results of The Michigan Sophomore Invitational were:
2000 – Flat World – bodgit – 1.49.8 – SR 99
2001 – Faintly Not Jove – glennspeck – 1.49.8 – 98
2002 – It’s Incidental – laysix – 1.49.2 – 105
2003 – Kiki Cotton Candy – greatdane – 1.48.8 – 107
2004 – Sambeira – noia – 1.48.8 – 107
2005 – Cold Storage – springtime – 1.49.6 – 96
Another quality filly will add her name to this illustrious list on Saturday, and with the depth of talent assembled for the race, any one of the runners would be a worthy addition. The range of betting for the event is 5/2 the favorite, while the two outsiders will go around at just 13/1, an indication of just how much talent is contained within these ten fillies. I’m not a betting man, nor do I offer selections very often (I’m wrong too often), but for those who are, I can’t help but feel that the 13/1 on offer for Evilin is too good a price to refuse, and as a result, I’m tipping a minor upset here this weekend. (Apologies in advance to paceman2, as I’ve probably just applied the kiss of death!)
We’ll take a look at all the runners, in racebook order:
From the inside gate will emerge Jaca. This superbly bred, million dollar winning filly is a threat in anything she contests, as aptly displayed last start when she ran a strong second over a mile and a half in the Sydney Oaks – G1. A daughter of the multiple stakes winning, prolific broodmare, Queen Bluffy (Gone West / Roberto), she was conceived when owner / trainer palmisland secured the “available to all” mare and sent her to Mt. Livermore. She wasted no time in repaying the breeding cost outlay, winning her maiden on debut, and being a multiple stakeswinner herself by the time she had visited the racetrack five times. 2005 was to prove an exceptional year for Jaca, as she went on to reach the pinnacle of her class, taking out the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly-G1, at her eighth start. 2006 has not as yet seen her revisit those lofty heights, but as she won a stakes race two starts back, before her brave second in
Stall 2 is the starting position for General Mambo, a most capable filly with black type second and third placings as her most recent form. Created by sending well bred underachieving colt King Dix (Kingmambo / Dixieland Band) to the vet for gender alteration, before a mating with General Meeting, she had a relatively unimpressive start to her career, taking four starts to win her maiden, prior to rounding out her two year old season with two thirds, a fourth and a sixth in consecutive black type races. Returned to the allowance ranks for a confidence booster to begin 2006, she ran second, then first at the lower level before returning to the higher ranks for her aforementioned recent starts. As General Mambo has yet to taste victory against black type opposition, she’s perhaps facing an uphill battle against some fairly smart opponents here, but breeder / trainer zewango2 has had consistent returns from her thus far, and she’s proven to be competitive with the better class of fillies, so a forward showing should not really surprise. She share’s the longest price in the early betting markets, but only 13/1 is available, indicating that the odds makers are not willing to take too many risks with her.
From stall 3 comes Mean Green. A daughter of young Sadler’s Wells sire, Ballingarry, she’s from his first crop to the races, and currently sits at number two in the prize money earnings list for her sire. Bred by her owner trainer okieslew, she was a result of the mating of Ballingary with the trainers lightly raced dual winning mare Vixen’s Mile (Mane Magic / Riverman). As a stakes placed winner of three races, Mean Green has already surpassed the deeds of her dam, and looks to have plenty more in store. Lining up here for start number seventeen, she has seen plenty of the racetrack, and appears to be relishing the solid program. Given ten runs as a two year old, she won her maiden at her fourth start, rounded out the season with an allowance win and took home a check on eight occasions. 2006 began with four allowances for one win, before graduating to black type level for her last two, where she has proven most competitive. This is her first attempt at graded racing, and as she’s yet to win a black type race, her exposed formline is a tad below some of her opponents this weekend. Looking a little further however, it becomes clear that she’s never far away and the price assessors have clearly noted this, keeping her very safe in the betting.
Not a Honky Tonk occupies stall 4, and may well have snuck into this field at a most generous price (8/1), considering that she has been victorious in each of her last four appearances on the grass. Originally bred by blazer2, she’s spent her racing career in the care of flickaspad. Not a Honky Tonk is a result of the mating of ‘unowned’ stakeswinning mare
Lining up in stall number 5 will be Evilin, quoted at, I believe, a ridiculous price of 13/1 in the early markets. Lightly raced, she has lost no time in graduating to compete with the cream of her age group, and her solid performances all point to her becoming a long time fixture among the top group of her peers. Scratchbred by paceman2 she carries the blood of Even the Score / Moulin / Habitat. Even the Score is an inexpensive and only lightly used son of Unbridled’s Song, and Evilin is way out in front in the earnings race of his one dozen current first crop runners. After running fourth of eight on the dirt on debut, paceman2 decided the future probably looked brighter on the grass, and the switch had immediate results. A maiden win at the second run was enough to suggest to connections that the sky was the limit. The odds makers and bettors did not agree, but she defied her price and won the Train Yard Special – G1 at only her third start. Podium finishes at her next two at Grade 3 and stakes level, before back to the top in an attempt at the Sydney Oaks – G1. A solid third there behind TSR’s Inner Child and Jaca indicates that she should well be in the mix here. She’s likely to lead here as only she, and the filly drawn immediately outside her, have shown a marked liking for the front, and given her proven ability to stay the distance, she could well set up a gap which is impossible to pull back. One of the state’s top jockey’s S. Wilkinson takes the ride, so she loses nothing there. For a Grade 1 winner in good current form to be sharing the outsider’s position in betting is sheer madness, and her stable supporters could well be laughing all the way to the bank.
Gate 6 will be occupied by Can of Whoop As. Scratch bred by using the bloodlines of Wolfhound / Prized / Katowice, this quality filly boasts a better than 50% win strike rate, having won six times from eleven trips to the track, and is developing into one of the sim’s great bargains. Following two ordinary dirt maiden efforts to start her career, her original trainer switched to the grass, but set her on a claiming course, winning a maiden claimer at her third run, before losing her to current owner / trainer betdahouse at her fifth appearance. Her new connections had immediate success, and in just six starts have secured wins in an allowance and three times in stakes races. She’s never missed a check for her new stable, having recorded a stakes second and fourth, apart from her four wins. Tactics will be interesting. She has the services of a top rider in O.Young, and if he decides to lead, there could be a tussle between her and the filly drawn immediately inside her. Can of Whoop As may be at an advantage here, in that she can take a sit and still finish the race off. There is no reason to expect anything other than a top performance from this filly this weekend.
Barrier 7 is the starting position for John’s Niner. She is a daughter of Blushing John from the moderately performed (3 from 29) broodmare Hunter’s Charm (Peintre Celebre / Forty Niner). Originally bred by aqhalover, a registered owner of the mare, John’s Niner has spent her racing career under the guidance of daunte6. A consistent but unlucky black type performer, she comes into this bearing a turf record of two wins and six seconds from eight starts. Add to that her route record of thee seconds from four, with the unsuccessful run being on the dirt, and it’s hard to find better credentials for another tilt at a turf route. Her last eight races have all been at stakes level, giving her plenty of grounding at that level, and the step up in class this weekend should prove of little consequence. From those most recent eight starts, she’s won one and finished second on six other occasions, so her current form is exceptional. She’s collected $145,000 from her twelve starts to date, and could well add to that sum in this. She’s likely to be spotting the leaders half a dozen lengths mid-race, but look for her to be putting in the big strides as the post draws near.
Espresso D’Italia will emerge from barrier 8. She faces a huge drop in class here, following her fifth of twenty in the pinnacle event for her class, the Bluegrass Oaks – G1, a fortnight ago and as a result she will carry the hopes of the army of favorite backers. Her Bluegrass Oaks run followed a third of fourteen in Pennsylvania’s lool Oaks – G1, three weeks earlier. On the score of recent top class racing, this filly comes into this week’s race with the strongest preparation, as her last five runs have all resulted in checks against Grade 1 or Grade 2 opposition. She’s been incredibly unlucky, having invariably finished close up, while being unable to greet the judge this year. Bred by owner / trainer lasthope1, Espresso D’Italia is a daughter of Medaglia D’Oro from lasthope1’s well bred, moderately performed (3 from 28) mare Arequipa (Miswaki / Seeking the Gold) who earned over $100,000 in her allowance class career. She (Espresso D’Italia) won her maiden at her second start, an allowance at her fifth start, and exceeded the career of her dam by winning the Mistaken Soda Identity Stakes – G2 at her seventh race as a two year old. 2006 has seen her racing consistently at the highest level, and it requires just a touch of good fortune for her to add significantly to the almost $600,000 she has earned for her stable already. She’ll give her many supporters heart palpitations as she drops out of the picture in the early stages, but she has a finishing burst which should have the crowd up on its feet.
Street Away jumps from 9. Bred from scratch and carrying the blood of Street Cry / Kris S. / Bold Ruler, this filly is owned and prepared by the 1999 eclipse award winning trainer of the year, theatrical. A versatile filly with wins on both surfaces, she boasts podium finishes in all but one of her twelve starts, the only ‘failure’ being in the California Oaks – G1. Street Away is clearly a genuine chance in anything she contests. She took a little time to strike winning form, although she showed above average ability right from the outset. With seconds at each of her first three runs, she took five starts to register her maiden victory. Street Away has registered three wins from a dozen starts, none higher than at allowance level, but her three year old form is right up there, as she ran third in the El Pato Estupendo Especial – G1 on the dirt four starts ago, and at her most recent appearance was a closing third over the mile in the Nell Gwynne Stakes – G3. It is only a matter of time until she tastes victory at black type level, and that time may well come this weekend.
Dancin Ransom will jump from the outside gate. A winner of three from eleven and almost $150,000, she comes to this with good recent form, having finished first, third and fourth in stakes races at eight and a half or nine furlongs, from her last three trips to the track. A daughter of Red Ransom from the well bred but disappointing mare Sovereign Fort (Forty Niner / With Approval), she has already outperformed her dam who, although a winner of only two, is a fine example of a reward awaiting a loyal breeder and trainer. Dancin Ransom is a result of three generations of breeding by owner / breeder / trainer socalsnipe, who persevered with Sovereign Fort when many would have made her available to the claiming ranks. Dancin Ransom began her career on the dirt, and her debut speed figure of just 35 would not have inspired confidence for the future. Switched to the grass, her turnaround was instant. She won her maiden at start number two, and a stakes race at her fourth venture to the track. She followed that up with a creditable fourth in a full field in the Filly Grand Prix – G1, perhaps the highlight of her career to date. She’s currently in good form and once again she’s a great chance to be in the mix at the business end.
The Class Factor: A comparison of class levels of each runner’s previous run
Down in Class from Grade 1 – Jaca, Evilin, Espresso D’Italia
Reappearing at Grade 3 – Street Away
Up in Class from Ungraded Stakes – General Mambo, Mean Green, Can of Whoop As, John’s Niner, Dancin Ransom
Up in Class from Allowance – Not a Honky Tonk,
The Odds Makers opinion:
5/2 – Espresso D’Italia
9/2 – Jaca
5/1 – Street Away
7/1 – John’s Niner
8/1 – Not a Honky Tonk
The Computer opinion:
Jaca – 5
Evilin – 10
Can of Whoop As – 31
John’s Niner – 51
Dancin Ransom – 65