Morning line can’t make up its mind
What to do if you missed last weekend’s Bluegrass Derby? Try, try again. I don’t know if every colt scheduled to run in Saturday’s nine furlong GI Chicago Derby was on that particular path, but this is a field stacked with colts on the bubble who might not turn down a few more stakes points to ensure they don’t get shut out again. The odds tell the story of this field’s quality: the shortest price on the board is 7/1, and that’s split three ways.
Synchronicity places our co-favorites in the outermost post positions. I’ll start from the inside and work out. Sundays Rule is a son of High Yield out of an AP Indy mare.
The doza trainee has started seven times, winning five, and never finished worse than three. He’s ranked twenty-seventh in the sophomore classic division on the stretch of two listed stakes wins and most recently, a stylish, gritty victory in the GII Heat Less Stakes. A big, powerful colt with a mind of his own, Sundays Rule seems to have scared away the top jockeys at the track, so P. Williams will ride.
Parejo(Ire) is another colt whose only sin was getting started a little bit late. The Scenic(Ire) son of a stakes-winning Housebuster mare was a bit lanky and uncoordinated at two, but sgtbones’s patience was rewarded. He won his first five starts and finished second last out in his sixth. Along the way, he was victorious at nine furlongs in the GIII Renewal Rates.com with a 101 speed rating. The capable D. McCants gets the mount.
And on the far outside of the fourteen-horse field, Pleasantly Perfect son Globogym will drop well back and make a big run late. The bright chestnut colt has never raced at less than a mile and both of his graded starts have come at nine furlongs. Both times, he came out of the race almost as fresh as he went in. Speed ratings are very consistent in the upper 90s and this is a colt to keep in mind for the marathons.
Burning Flat and I go back precisely one race; I covered his graded stakes debut, the GII Texas Derby, where he made a leap out of the restricted allowance ranks to lead throughout. The Forty Niner son out of a Blushing Groom(Fr) mare hails from lenny3’s barn and has back-to-back three-digit speed ratings to his name. One wonders if he might be due for a bounce at some point, but I’ve learned my lesson about doubting him.
The first of three 9/1 shots, Earth Quaker is as well-bred as they come: by AP Indy and out of a Fappiano mare. A winner of three in nine starts, he took five tries to break his maiden but followed it up with an allowance win in his three-year-old debut and two races after that, a listed stakes win as well. He passed tiring horses late while sixth in the GII Wooden Indian last out. The aforementioned listed stakes win came over this track and the 100 speed rating there was his career best. He’ll be on his third jockey in as many Illinois starts, but B. Bryant isn’t exactlty a step down.
To continue the nature theme (and fittingly given the name and location of the race), our next horse is grandslam’s The Lake Effect. Salt Lake son of a Timeless Moment mare, he’s run fifteen times so far, winning six, and has only gotten better as the distances have increased. His number show an upward trend all year and he won his last two stakes races by a combined five and a half lengths. Based in France for the first eleven starts of his career, The Lake Effect sets foot on American soil for the first time to make his graded stakes debut.
Bearly Wanted is the best son of a Seeking The Gold mare, and by Deputy Commander. The wilko trainee is no stranger to good company. Four of his five starts at three have been in graded races and he’s picked up a check in all of them, though his best finishes have been a brace of shows. His numbers fit right in here and his late charge is always dramatic.
Wylde Cat is as well-bred as they come, being a Storm Cat son from a stakes-winning Wild Again he-mare. Ranked sixteenth in his class’s sprint division, he’s also no slouch going long, as he proved two starts back when second in the nine-furlong GI Corkscrew Stakes. A flop in the GII Easy Goer kept him out of the big dance and he’ll be looking to call on his tactical speed to make amends on Saturday.
Speaking of Storm Cat, he’s the grandsire of Uncrumbling by way of this one’s dam, GIII-placed Much Off The Cat. Crafty Prospector sired the winner of the aforementioned Easy Goer memorial, who has also run a close-up second going a mile and three-sixteenths. He failed to rally in the GII Texas Derby last out, but the wet surface may have been to blame.
I suspect Echological’s name is too clever for me to figure out, even with the power of Google at my fingertips. The Ecton Park son of a Sadler’s Wells mare is knocking on the door of the top hundred of his division after thirteen career starts (he’s won four and hit the board in ten). A stakes winner at two, he’s been multiply stakes-placed this season but hasn’t quite broken through since his sophomore debut (an open allowance race). But he has been running on at the end of shorter raced and the added distance makes him interesting here.
Despite his pedigree, it appears that Searching The Sky(Ire) (Galileo crossed with a Blushing Groom mare, with another dose of Northern Dancer down on the bottom line) wants no part of the turf. It took a switch to the dirt for his third start to break his maiden–which he did under a hand right by better than six lengths. Since then, he’s beat beaten only once, and that by a quarter-length last time out after being the default leader for most of a mile and three-sixteenths. The three-digit speed rating there was very solid, jockey T. Balwin has been having a nice year, and he may have learned something about where the race ends in that last trip.
Regally-bred Storm Cat son Blue Fer Sure, from a stakes-winning Seattle Slew mare, is a deep chocolate brown and shows no signs of graying out. Is owner/trainer unreal already picturing a second career in the hunter ring? Does the colt need some Prozac? Given his performance thus far, I’m betting on ‘none of the above.’ Blue Fer Sure was ambitiously campaigning at two (he was beaten just a nose in a stakes race as a maiden) but seems none the worse for it: he won an allowance by five and a quarter lengths a few starts ago and is twice stakes-placed this year. Numbers do look a little low, but there’s something to be said for an easy colt who will run from anywhere.
I’ve heard speculation that Empire Maker is the best young stallion in the game. Super11 is no doubt hoping so for the sake of Empire Statement, out of a Danehill mare. The colt has won three of eleven and was a closing second in the GII Sunny’s Prospector Stakes earlier this year. He’s been a bit flat in his last two starts, but this is not another California Derby, and he did run well at the distance in a listed stakes in his sophomore bow.
Finally, we have Mascotte Vici, an mgstables trainee by Pure Prize, out of a Balcony mare. A five-time winner, Mascotte Vici was a three-time stakes winner at two and rebounded a bit last time out, finishing third in a listed stakes at a mile and three-sixteenths. He didn’t show the acceleration down the stretch that I’d like to see to feel good about him here, but he’s got one half-furlong less to go on Saturday and a bit of stamina-building may have been just the ticket.