Sydney Heading for a Cold Snap

The second graded race this week in New South Wales is the West Point Thoroughbreds Turf Derby for three year old fillies, on a firm turf course. Thirteen runners head to the gate looking for their share of the $125,000 purse. Eight and a half furlongs is the trip, so let’s take a look how the field shapes up.

1. KING SNAKE – kingfish – This girl seems to have just ever so slightly one off the boil in her last couple of runs, perhaps suggesting a rest might be just around the corner. Prior runs to this in graded company are more than enough to take this one out, but she will need to get the form monkey off her back. She claims second in the line of favouritism at 5/1 so there is some value there.

2. V’S GIRL – fusion – After showing some promising improvement of late in open stakes company, the time has come it seems to have a dig in a graded field. Seemingly getting better with every run, it’s easy to look past her last run where there was a slight dip in speed, there’s every chance the track conditions played more of a role than outright talent. She did nonetheless still pick up the place, backing up a very solid stakes win in her prior race. Longish odds, but with an expected improvement might just have enough to upset a few here.

3. BEYOND THE STARS – syosset3 – Finished in a rather unlucky second place at her last start after leading for most of the journey. This race was over nine and a half furlongs, so the shortening up here can do nothing but good things. Having won at this distance at stakes level certainly bodes well leading into this one, but lead up speeds suggest perhaps just lacking that extra edge needed to beat the frontrunners. Top five almost a certainty however.

4. TIME FOR A SONG – terryg – Clearly six wins from ten starts, including stakes glory, is nothing short of spectacular in anyone’s language. Generally speaking speed has improved with nearly every race; there is however a little blip in proceedings. Two starts ago, it would appear nerves got the better of this little lady in her only graded attempt thus far. Next to nothing else was different as far as race conditions were concerned, so the question must be asked whether this will impact today. Theoretically it shouldn’t, as this week’s race is a Grade Three, as compared to the Grade One of the failure, the step up is a much closer one to what she’s used to. She sits in fourth on the tote, so it would seem others believe expectations aren’t exaggerated.

5. COLD STORAGE – springtime – Clearly the one every eye will be on for this event. Form and speed are perhaps currently a level above the competition leading into this, yet not as short a favourite as I would have expected. After cleaning up a Group Two race last time out, this one could be considered a little less taxing, and to be completely honest the race conditions couldn’t have been set up better for this girl. Combining speed, talent, conditions and plenty of rest, it will be quite a job beating this little lady.

6. THIRTEENTH DATE – congie5 – Odds of 13/1 probably don’t do this girl the justice she truly deserves. Her last few runs have been a bit of a journey, testing the waters if you like of longer distances, too see whether or not there is a niche that was yet to be discovered. After modest results throughout her little journey, this week she returns to what seems to be the area of her preferred distance, having seen victory on more than one occasion, including a stakes. There are a couple of tough nuts to crack here this week, but it’s certainly not impossible.

7. HIGHROADTONOTHING (IRE) – bagpuss – This girl appears to be a rock solid honest performer race in race out. Plenty of graded experience even for such a short career, and always appears to give her best. She clearly doesn’t appear to like much farther than nine furlongs at this stage, but that doesn’t matter, we’re going less than that here. Thus far there doesn’t seem to be that willingness to go the extra yard and get the ultimate job done, and it’s a little doubtful that will change here, but make no bones, come the finish line, you could put your house on being top five.

8. LOST MY KEYS – conman3 – Another filly that possesses a fair degree of graded experience to now, and equally as solid a performer. As with the #7 there doesn’t appear to be that killer instinct there for the minute, but nonetheless consistent top five results are abundant. One gets the feeling a drop back to regular stakes again, where she left with victory, could well bring both a return to her winning ways and probable improvement speed-wise, looking towards a return to graded company in even better form than now.

9. SQUALFLY’S WOODY – kribensis –  This filly I find mighty impressive, after taking only a few runs to become victorious at allowance level, she then went on to stage a colossal 2¼ length stakes win only two starts later. If it weren’t for a simple lack of distance this time around, it would be hard to find a more likely winner. A lack of ground probably in the order of a furlongs or two will be what inhibits this girl from victory, look for her too be steaming home however, and if the front runners slip through energy sapping duelling, she might just slip through very late.

10. LIBERTY TREE – kelsobarn – The early pace of the race is likely to be set by this one, and it’s likely she’ll be the one to give the favourite the most trouble. Scintillating form of late, winning three of her last five, including a grade three. Until her last run, the extra ½ furlong may have been an issue. This worry however was put to rest after posting a speed of 100 at the very distance of this week’s race. If she gets the lead early, it’ll take quite some chasing to get the lead back.

11. DIXIE’S HALO – kak62farm – After winning a regular stakes seven starts ago, this youngster seems to have dropped the ball in a big way. Speed and success have allured her since, and one gets the feeling, entry in this weeks race is quite a bit too much of an ask. It may be that perhaps it’s time to start from scratch again, and perhaps start with a clean slate back at allowance level, or at least regular stakes.

12. SHARP IVOR (GB) – grimreeser – Although very early in her career, only nine races in fact, this lady comes off two regular stakes wins in succession, and a total of four wins thus far. She seems to have taken to around the nine furlong mark like a duck to water, with many more success’s no doubt to follow. It is this positive that may however bring about her downfall in this race. She is a contender, no question, but the fear is of course, whether or not she’ll have enough ground.

13. KATIMA – walshy – This filly appears to be the great unknown amongst this field. After being stretched out well beyond a mile, things looked to be heading in the right direction, then however her form seemed to fade as quickly as it rose. Shortening right up for this race might just be what the doctor ordered, but I’m of the belief that perhaps a few more allowance wins on the board, might freshen her up ready to do stakes battle once again.

There’s the field, and as mentioned COLD STORAGE appears to be a genuine favourite, and likely to be the winner. LIBERTY TREE also has a very valid shot at this, so I feel the top two slots will be filled by them. Third is a bit of a lottery with so many capable of finding the show. HIGHROADTONOTHING (IRE) is such a reliable runner that’s who I would mark in the third place box.

Good luck, and may they all return healthy.

Cheers