Will BACK IN YOUR ARMS get the SMACKDOWN in France?
The Sure Will Cap Stakes
Grade III
One Mile on Good Turf
$125,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
I love to visit the racetrack in France. It is hard to keep your mind on the races as you visit the wonderful Bistros and sample the local wines and breads and cheeses. We have an exciting field here in the SURE WILL CAP Stakes though to capture our attention so let’s take a look:
1 – SLY GO LIGHTLY(IRE) ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 5/2 Oberon 7.3% R.Truitt 19% 108.6 102.9 16
(SLIGO BAY (IRE) x PINE BLUFF x BARKERVILLE) A battle tested four year old filly with over one million dollars in earnings, she ran one of her best races last time out in the POORLY VERIFY Stakes race, winning with a 106 SPF. Trainer Oberon has her on top of her game and with Truitt in the stirrups, it is pretty hard to go against this formidable trio. She is the Morning Line favorite and with good reason. She has won a couple of times on off tracks and the weather man says that may enter in the equation.
| 2 – SOTTO VOCE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | SgtBones | 35.0% | L.Woodard | 11% | 101.3 | 93.3 | 26 |
(KINGMAMBO x SEATTLE SLEW x UNBRIDLED) Another four year old Stakes vet, but she has had an up and down with finishes all over the board and speeds about the same way. Trainer SgtBones win percentage speaks for itself and should be able to straighten this lady out. Woodard is a capable jock that may help in this matter. The filly has mixed results on an off track.
| 3 – DO SOME FOOTBALL(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | Calle | 9.6% | M.Springer | 3% | 89.6 | 88.4 | 1370 |
(DOOWALEY (IRE) x MR. PROSPECTOR x AUCTION RING) Four Year old DOOWALLY filly that has only run twice on the grass with differing results. She won an allowance with a nice 89 SPF then stumbled badly in a GIII, finishing nearer the back than the front of the pack. It is going to take a few more turf races before Trainer Calle know exactly what this filly is up too. They have jockey Springer in control and he has had his struggles this year with less than 3% winners.
| 4 – GRAVEL | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/1 | Mattress | 19.1% | J.Kemp | 11% | 95.7 | 89.2 | 2107 |
(PULPIT x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x MR. PROSPECTOR) Trainer Mattress is going for a rags to riches story here after his four year old filly won a claiming race last time out with a sizzling 95 SPF and is trying for her first Stakes entry here. After bouncing back and forth between distances and surfaces, Mattress would sure like to think that they finally have this filly pointed in the right direction. Sometimes it seems that Pulpit offspring can take awhile to come around and that may be the case here.
| 5 – BACK IN YOUR ARMS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/5 | Iant4 | 16.7% | J.Stivers | 26% | 109.6 | 103.0 | 11 |
(KINGMAMBO x NIJINSKY II x ROBERTO) A nine times Stakes and multiple Graded Stakes winner, this five year old filly also has over $1.2 million in earnings. Trainer Iant4 has guided her through a remarkable career and hot jockey Stivers should probably be able to continue that. The one chink in her armor is the fact that she has never won on an off track. If the weatherman is correct and we are less than firm on Saturday, there is a possibility that someone could sweep past this pre-race favorite.
| 6 – SMACKDOWN(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | Peeps5 | 17.1% | K.Champ | 18% | 101.3 | 96.0 | 114 |
(ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE) x THE MINSTREL) Another four year old with plenty of money in the bank is this filly trained by Peeps5. She has $1 million plus in her purse and has been in more Graded Stakes than all the graded tests I took in High School and is a two time Grade I winner. She has been hot this year with a win and a second in Stakes and good SPFs. She could be a big challenge to BACK IN YOUR ARMS and could make for some extra excitement in this race.
| 7 – CRYPTIC HABITS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | DTown | 4.3% | R.Kraft | 5% | 104.0 | 94.0 | 1357 |
(CRYPTOCLEARANCE x DANZIG x HABITONY (IRE)) The senior member of our field is this six year old mare who makes quite the experienced pair with her 44 races and jockey Kraft’s 13 years of riding around the oval. She can still move around the track quickly as shown by her 97 SPF last time out. She just doesn’t do it as often as she used to and it is hard to tell when it will happen. Her last two on off tracks weren’t very successful after previous good showings. You never know when this mare will jump up and grab a paycheck.
Morning Line = 5-1-6-7-2
Yoss Tipsheet = 1-5-6-7
Paz Picks = 5-6-1-4-7
It’s tough enough to pick these races without the threat of rain but here goes anyway. I like GRAVEL to beat out CRYPTIC HABITS to finish fourth. There are lots of folks jumping on the bandwagon of SLY GO LIGHTLY after that last 106 SPF but I need to see it again. That leaves two horses to challenge each other and I believe that SMACKDOWN will come up just a little short and allow BACK IN YOUR ARMS to collect the win.
Good luck to all runners!
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. I love to hear from you!Paz