Spotlight Race of the Day: July 17 Newmarket local bred Allowance

Interesting race here, a 10-furlong local bred race in Newmarket. The race is open to 3 year olds only and seven are entered to run. The field is interesting in that of the seven entered, four are girls, out numbering the boys this time, rather rare to see that. The race will be on the all-weather Poly track surface.

1. Rover Rock 36/1
Has one win in 12 outings which came nearly a year ago on turf. Only two starts this year, both on dirt in local bred events finishing double digits behind in lengths and sub-60 speeds. Explores poly surface for first time in hopes of better results. Allowance level appears overwhelming for this runner and having this gal fight with boys makes it a bit tougher.

2. Nothing Is Free 2/1
2014 starts have all been on poly surface and has a record of 2-1-0 in four races. Speeds have been in range of 89 to 94 during this span, gaining this guy the favor of the oddmakers as second favorite. However, he has never gone route before and the front runner may find the 10 furlongs a bit enduring. Distance will be the test.

3. The Kingsroad 8/5
From February to April this colt ran on dirt at distances of 9f to 9.5f sporting speeds of 89 to 100 in three races with a win and a second. In June, ran 12f on turf and faltered badly finishing well back and speed drop to 75. He has one other start at 10f where results were similar, however in grade company. Makes first poly start and has decent route record (ITM 5 of 8 starts), however, the longer routes are a concern.

4. Poet’s Rock 69/1
This lady has her work cut out for her. She’s a non-winner with 9 starts and raced once on poly in sprint, losing ground throughout race. Top speed in mid-60’s doesn’t look threatening to others in this field and she has not gone longer than a tad over a mile. She does come in with three months rest, however, last start in April was disaster after long rest. Tough to see her being a factor but maybe the longer route will be her thing.

5. Easy Eddie Jr 5/1
Exclusively a turf runner, the colt will be making his first start on a different surface. Speeds have topped in mid-80’s. Has two wins in career with one coming earlier this year at distance of 9f. Has raced once in allowance and once in listed stake race, finishing well back in both and indication that the class level may be too tough. But the route win does indicate some value here.

6. Rare 5/2
Ran on poly in last, finished second going long 11.5f but was beaten favorite with speed of 78. Speeds in upper 80’s to low 90’s during most of 2014, but slipped in May when going 10.5f with 77 speed. Either longer distances are effecting speed or the horse is showing some wear. Hard to tell which, but last race was rather soft field and this lady faltered in it.

7. Preview Rock 34/1
Wrapped 2013 campaign up with a quartet of poly races where she was 1-2-0 with top speed of 79 at just over a mile. Has one start in April, running on dirt in sprint which was charted in low 60’s. Returns to favored poly surface and this lady has shown late speed in past, if she takes to the distance, she can light the board with big payouts.

Every horse has a concern in this race. I’m going with Nothing Is Free. Speed numbers on poly are excellent and I’m hoping distance will be manageable.

The Kingsroad gets third selection as I am hoping last was a throw away race, but this one can handle distance.

Very tempted to make Preview Rock top choice, like the late run ability and I’m not ruling her out. Top two have speed numbers so I’ll take her for third..