Eight vie for glory in NoCal feature
The second edition of the Monjeux Challenge will feature 8 older horses going a mile on Northern California’s turf course. The grass is firm, the forecast is for sun, and the race promises to be an exciting one. Favorite Bearly Limp makes start #50 at the age of 7, while the other senior horse in the field is the mare High Esteem who is going for her 26th lifetime start. The veterans face such younger horses as graded-placed 4yo Transylvania.
Bearly Limp(IRE), the 7-2 morning line favorite, is still going strong at 7. Trained out of the jimmyv24 barn, the Black Tie Affair son is a perfect 3 for 3 in 2006. His last stakes start was at a mile in the Halo Hank Bonanza three back. The Bear won it by one but was so unchallenegd the speed figure was an uncharacteristically low 98. Bear can win on the lead, or he can stalk the pace, so his versatility will serve him well.
At 4-1, Abe Hollandia is pretty well-regarded by the handicappers with good reason. Also a son of Black Tie Affair, the hollandia3 charge is coming out a decent run in the GII Lone Star Mile last out where he finished a tiring fourth. The two races previous, however, Abe won in fine fashion. The 6yo has a lot of early speed so expect jockey young but talented jockey C Winter to rush Abe out of the gate in a bid to wire the field.
Transylvania, trained by waremblem2, also ran in the Lone Star Mile last out but ended fifth. He was never seriously a factor in that race, but when Transy wants to run he’s pretty darn good. He’s a Peintre Celebre son out of a Seeking The Gold mare with a good record on grass: 18 starts, 3 wins, 2 places, and 5 shows for just shy of a half-million in earnings. The 4yo colt’s last trip to the winner’s circle was in July after he ran in a big race in the DelPenn/GR Simsters Smackdown, so he’s shown he has the class to beat graded winners. The question is if he’ll do it in this race. I’d say he’s due for his next win, and would not be at all surprised if he pulled it off.
Like Transylvania, Crimsonite is also set at 9-2 on the morning line. He’s a striking light gray son of palace Music out of a stakes-placed End Sweep mare. Trainer donrawl01 sent this graded stakeswinner out last in the 7.5f Wasatch Mountain Stakes, where Crimsonite ran a tactical race to win by 2 with a 104SP. If he can keep up with Abe Hollandia at the front of the pack, and if he still has the energy at the top of the stretch, he has a decent shot here.
Awesome Giant is one of those equine prodigies trainers love to have. The 4yo Giant’s Causeway colt has an impressive 11:4-1-1 record, but he still hunting for that first stakes win. Looking at his past performances he’s probably not going to get it here, but a third isn’t out of the question. I’d really like to see trainer victoryrun try his colt at 10 furlongs or so. His running style (he’s a deep closer) and typical race end (just coming up short) suggest a mile is probably too short to expect great things. Still, he did run second by a narrowing half-length in his last start in the mile Contagious Lord Handicap, so there is some hope. He’s 5-1, with decent jockey K Dodds riding.
Craftfly’s Seeker is coming off a nice allowance win in Utah at a mile. Trainer shazfly seems to have decided that his 5yo horse must have enough confidence back after that win to try again for that elusive stakes win. The son of Crafty Prospector has 7 wins on 37 starts, but hasn’t yet managed better than second in stakes company. If he truly is back in form, it’s possible he could pull it off in this race. However, the 7-1 odds suggest he’s a couple of strides slower than Abe Holandia and Bearly Limp. I’d expect Seeker to hang out with Awesome Giant in a relaxed closing style throughout, but to fall a good four lengths short at the wire.
The oddsmakers have also assigned 7-1 to Yowza, a 4yo son of Pine Bluff. Trainer 8ballfarms has decided that a mile is Yowza’s best distance, and he’s had his last 8 starts at this distance. He’s actually had some success, with a pair of wins in allowances and a second in a stakes in those last 5. Yowza has won when he’s been on or near the pace, and when he’s closed, so like Bearly Limp, the versatility can’t hurt. He doesn’t look to have the same fleetness of Abe Hollandia, and if he tries to challenge him he’ll be quickly outclassed. His best bet is for jockey L McNeil to hold him within striking distance of Abe and hope that he can outlast the closers in the stretch.
The horse breaking from the far outside post is also the field longshot at 16-1. High Esteem is a very well-bred 7yo – she’s by Rahy out of a Seattle Slew mare. Like Craftfly’s Seeker, High Esteem has had a break from stakes sompany but is returning after rebuilding some of that esteem. Unlike Seeker, High Esteem’s trainer doa is sending his mare up in class off a pair of seconds rather than wins. Both of those races were at 9, so I do expect the horse to enjoy the furlong drop. Enjoy it enough to be competitve here? Not likely. It’d be a surprise to find her finishing better than fourth. Unlike Bearly Limp, year #7 hasn’t been so kind to this mare. She’s good enough to run pretty well in allwoance company, but I’m afraid her best years are behind her.
So how will the race unfold? Look for Abe Hollandia to break first and attempt to outrrun the field. Crimsonite will be chasing Abe hard. Bringing up the rear should be Awesome HGiant with Craftfly’s Seeker not far ahead. Mixing it up midfield will be Bearly Limp and Transylvania. Yowza is expected to try to challenge Abe, but he’ll tire by the top of the stretch. High Esteem should break well but simply doesn’t have the speed to be a serious threat. As for order of finish? Bearly Limp should manage a half-length victory by holding off a late charge from Transylvania. Abe Hollandia’s early efforts will see him faltering a bit in the last sixteenth and finishing third.