Jockey Picks Long Shot
We are in that magical lull before the official start of the strawberry season here in Maine, and there is not much to do around town except speculate about jockeys. Questions abound coming into this week’s Mellow Breeze Handicap, a Grade II mile run on the dirt for a field of ten three-year-old fillies. Much talk surrounds jockey G. Giant in particular, who has a history with two fillies here, is riding neither, and will be seen Saturday astride the long shot.
Varying reports can be heard around the stables, and no two seem to be the same. Some say that Giant refused to ride for either of the two owners he has worked with previously, both of whom were begging for on bended knees. Still others are adamant that he has a history of disobeying instructions and using up good runners, and have it straight from the owners that they wouldn’t let him ride their mounts if he paid them. One rather precocious stable boy hinted at some unpleasantness involving several trainers’ daughters.
Giant could not be reached for comment, although he would probably suggest that we get on with it and look at the fillies in the race.
In the inside position is Conga Line, super11’s Congaree filly who comes off a disappointing 8th place finish in the American Cat Stakes. G. Giant had the ride in that race, and the poor finish in that race may be the reason why he has reportedly been barred from entering the Super Stables (reports on this could not be confirmed) much less have another ride on this filly. This will be Conga Line’s first try at a route race; she has previously won at 7 furlongs so the extra distance may not upset her too much. Although it wasn’t enough, she did improve to a 90 speed figure in her last start and looks to improve again. She goes off at 9/1, this time with N. Gunn aboard.
Breaking second will be Praslin, a Tapit filly who won her last start in a 7.5 furlong allowance. Bucephalus’ entry also improved to a 90 speed figure in that start, but it remains to be seen whether she can carry that over a distance. She finished second in a mile stakes run at two. This was followed up with an 11th place finish, also at a mile, but Praslin may have been thrown off by the mud that day. She has shown her ability to lead or rate depending on her jockey’s commands (and shipping in from the west keeps her above the hotbed of New England jockeys). The handicappers put her at 10/1.
In the third spot we find Genna Lou Hoo. This daughter of Rahy is coming of a struggle through the slop in the GI lool Oaks where she finished 6th. Even without the mud, she seems to prefer a mile over the mile and a sixteenth in that race, and so hopes to improve here. She ran a 98 to come home 2nd in the GII South Dakota Oaks for marilyn847, so we know she can run at this level. Genna Lou Hoo is ranked 37th in the dirt classic division, but has already run six times this year and often with only a two week break; she may be losing some steam. At 3/1, many people have confidence that she can pull off another one.
In the fourth position is theleague’s Broadway Angel, a nice looking daughter of Vindication who won last month’s Louisiana Oaks. Her last two starts have been for a 4th and a 5th, so she may be having trouble recovering from that victory. Broadway Angel has done everything asked of her to this point, winning both at distances up to 9.5 furlongs and at the Grade II level. She is the 27th ranked dirt classic filly and the favorite in this race at 7/2.
Breaking fifth is Cinematic, topicountc’s Seeking the Gold filly who had her first graded start five weeks ago and finished third. This filly has really improved at three, which may have been helped along by her switch to dirt. Cinematic has done better in sprints in the past, but is still improving so it is far too early to have her pegged as a sprinter. She goes off at 7/1.
In the sixth spot is Exile On Main St, the pretty brown filly who seems to have caused G. Giant so much trouble. He rode super18’s filly three times, including her first win, but does not have the mount this week. Instead, G. Speck has the reins for the daughter of Thunder Gulch. Exile On Main St won her last start, a mile allowance, with a 96. She has improved at three, but has only tried stakes races twice with a 2nd and a 7th to show for them. This will be a step up for her, so it is understandable that her stall has been declared off-limits to reporters (or to me, anyway, according to that stable boy). She is currently 7/1.
Starting seventh will be Sin Bin, a daughter of Kingmambo who comes off a 5th in the Jack Razing Stakes. Super25’s entry won three in a row coming into her three-year-old season, including her maiden win, but her two recent stakes starts have been a 3rd and 5th. Sin Bin is another filly for whom this race will be a step up. Her career had a slow beginning, as she ran a 54 in her first start, but these fillies are still too young to label with any certainty. At 10/1, people seem to be cautious here, but anything can happen.
In post position eight we find the filly who may be behind all the trackside commotion. Warbager, a daughter of War Emblem, seeks to redeem herself after a disappointing 9th in the Grade III We Get Signal Stakes. Despite the recent misstep, b4rca’s filly will be piloted by G. Giant. With a 28% win rate he could potentially ride any filly in this field, so why Warbager? Although she has yet to run above a 90, she has managed to win both sprints and routes and both dirt and turf races. She may not be able to handle the graded company, but her connections apparently have great faith in this 14/1 long shot.
In post nine we have Territorial T. Ted’s filly recently won the Virgin Bubble Stakes after struggling in several graded attempts, but no one should forget that this Indian Territory filly is the 44th ranked dirt classic filly. She has only sprinted once, being more comfortable in routes such as this one, although she was beaten by 17 lengths in the We Get Signal Stakes. Territorial T is 8/1.
On the outside is Quality Material by Elusive Quality. Varsitytwo’s filly had her first disappointment in a while when she came home eighth in the lool Oaks last time out. The poor finish in that start could be explained by the sloppy track, but Quality Material will have improve a lot in order to run in this race. She has had solid runs so far, including a win in a 9 furlong stakes, but has yet to impress in a graded start. She is at 9/1 odds.
Whether jockeys have spurned owners, or owners spurned jockeys will be a discussion for the ages. In the meantime, Broadway Angel looks to be a winner in this race, but don’t count out the still improving Cinematic. Sin Bin may also prove she is ready in this race, and there is always the possibility of a long shot coming through in the end.