Prestigious Sydney Oaks Looks Wide Open
The Sydney Oaks (G1, $750,000, 12 Furlongs, 3yo Fillies) didn’t take long to cement its reputation as a launching pad to Sim greatness. If there was a recipe for the first ever running of the race it would read “instant classic…just add Cecil Roo.” A daughter of Affirmed out of a Blushing Groom(Fr) mare, she came to the Sydney Oaks as the unheralded and much ignored ninth wagering choice at 13/1. And really you can’t fault the bettors. She took five races to break her maiden, four races to clear her first allowance class, and captured her first stakes win in start number 22. These days some horses don’t even make it to start 22. “Winless in four starts? Breed over it!” But toplight persevered, sensing something was special about her filly. And in the 2000 Sydney Oaks, Cecil Roo gave Sim trainers everywhere reason to hope that their mediocre sprinter or miler could play host to untapped greatness going a longer course of ground. Running a distance further than nine furlongs for the first time, Cecil Roo came from off the pace and demolished her stunned foes by an even six lengths. The rest, as they say, was history, as she won eight more G1 events over the course of her career including the 2000 English Derby and the 2001 Ark De Triumph, both against the boys. She was recently honored as one of the first fifteen entrants into the widely anticipated Sim Hall of Fame.
Fast forward to 2006. Fourteen fillies will look to carry on the legacy that Cecil Roo began in the initial rendition of this prestigious event. And very much like their predecessor, none of them jump off the past performances and scream victory. They will all be traveling a distance that none have traversed before.
Very often pace can make the race, and while the effect of pace in Sim racing is widely discussed, there is little agreement about its importance. For what it’s worth, the Sydney Oaks is overflowing with speed. Nine of the fourteen entrants have been on the lead at some point during their young careers. Whether that speed will translate to the European classic distance of 12 furlongs is a question that will go unanswered until Saturday. Many people will believe that the concentration of speed in this race will favor horses that are comfortable coming from the clouds. And while that certainly may be the case, it is also possible that the separation that will likely develop between the frantic frontrunners and the distant closers may discourage the latter group, as many won’t be used to seeing the leaders that far in front of them. But alas, all will be determined in due time. Let us turn our attention to the fourteen fillies that will be looking to enter their names into the record books this weekend.
Because none of these fillies have run the Sydney Oaks distance before, we are going to analyze them based on findings from researching past winners of the race. In particular there are two factors that seem of the utmost importance when discussing a horse’s ability to excel in the Oaks:
Romp Factor: The first important ingredient to excelling in the Oaks is for a horse to have won a non-maiden race by at least two lengths. Every single one of the six Sydney Derby winners shares this trait in common.
Nine Furlong Factor: The second important ingredient to Oaks success is showing improvement in the first run of nine furlongs or longer. Four of the six previous winners of this race ran a lifetime high speed figure the first time they ran longer than 8.5 furlongs. Of the other two, one of them dropped from a 76 speed figure to a 75 speed figure from 8.5 furlongs to nine furlongs but won by eight lengths, while the other never ran a distance of nine furlong before the Oaks.
With those factors in mind, let’s make an attempt at sorting out the field!
1) Wildwings, 3yo filly, 12/1, D Boyington (0%), Buddha x Seeking The Gold x the Minstrel, trained by kinghaven
Profile: This beautiful grey daughter of Buddha broke her maiden at first asking on the dirt before struggling in two subsequent main track tries. She was then switched to the turf and finished second in a mile allowance. After that it was back to the dirt for a subpar run at a mile. It was then that kinghaven decided to stretch her out and it proved a fortuitous decision. She smoked a 9.5 furlong turf allowance by three lengths with a lifetime high 83 speed figure. In two subsequent stakes tries at the same distance she ran second and third, with the most recent earning a nice 91 speed figure. In her most recent race she struggled when dropped to a nine furlong turf stakes.
Romp Factor: YES, she won a 9.5 furlong turf allowance by three lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: YES, she improved four points on her lifetime high speed figure in her first try at nine furlongs or longer.
Bottom Line This filly fits the profile of past Oaks winners and it looks like she definitely wants more ground. Her high speed figure of 91 fits with the top ones in this race. She has a definite shot at victory.
2) Northern Voyage(NZ), 3yo filly, 10/1, A Trembath (0%), Octagonal(NZ) x Danzig x
Profile: This great looking Octagonal filly broke her maiden in her first turf try, a 5.5 furlong MSW. After failing to register a victory in four straight sprints, jockeymax5 stretched her to a mile and she won easy by two lengths. She won again in another turf mile next time out. At that point she was stretched out to nine furlongs and she responded with vigor, crushing a nine furlong turf allowance by three lengths with a lifetime best 87 speed figure. Her winning streak reached four with yet another nine furlong turf allowance next time out to close out her juvenile campaign. Her three-year-old season began with two mediocre efforts in stakes, one at 9.5 furlongs and the other at an even nine. Two races back she ran a career effort finishing a closing third in a 9.5 furlong stakes with a 90 speed figure. She’s coming into the Oaks off a two-length allowance victory at a mile with a tepid 76 speed figure.
Romp Factor: YES, she’s won three turf allowances by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: YES, she improved five points on her lifetime speed figure in her first race at nine furlongs or longer.
Bottom Line: This filly fits the profile of past Oaks winners and her high speed figure of 90 fits in well with the top ones in this race. Her poor route stakes record of 3 (0 0 1) is a bit disconcerting, however, and she will undoubtedly need to improve heaps to win this weekend. But the trends are in her favor for improvement.
3) Tesseract, 3yo filly, 24/1, T Kirkland (14%), Sadler’s Wells x Unbridled x Kris S., trained by lostcode (aka. pharaoh)
Profile: This immaculately bred daughter of super sire Sadler’s Wells has been on a win-lose pattern for her entire seven-race career, and she’s coming off a loss. After being downed by a nose in her dirt debut she was switched to the turf and promptly broke her maiden by a half-length going 8.5 furlongs. Pharaoh then stretched her out to nine furlongs for her allowance debut and she finished second, beaten nearly four lengths. That didn’t dissuade her trainer as again she was stretched out and won going 9.5 furlongs by nearly two lengths. Her stakes debut was next and she finished third by five lengths running nine furlongs. That marked her third consecutive 78 speed figure which remains her career high. In her next start she cruised to an easy peasy victory in an 11 furlong allowance by four lengths but with a tepid 69 speed figure. She’s coming off a dismal seventh place effort in a 9.5 furlong allowance.
Romp Factor: YES, she’s won one turf allowance by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: YES, she improved three points on her lifetime speed figure in her first race at nine furlongs or longer.
Bottom Line: While this filly does fit the profile of past Oaks winners and she does boast a win running 11 furlongs, the feeling here is that she simply isn’t fast enough to compete with many of the horses running 90+ speed figure in this race.
4) Running Scared(Ire), 3yo filly, 7/1, A Butcha (12%), El Prado(Ire) x Roberto x Raise A Native, trained by crazyjoe (aka. lenny)
Profile: This towering El Prado filly has done most of her racing thus far on the dirt with only one run over the green stuff. Although it’s not the belief here that distance preference on one surface correlates to distance preference on the other surface, it should be noted that her fastest dirt race came going 6.5 furlongs in her fourth start. In her three-year-old debut she won a dirt mile stakes with by a length-and-a-half with an 83 speed figure but in her next start she was crushed by 13 lengths in the G2 Florida Oaks. That thrashing resulted in Lenny switching her to the turf and she responded with aplomb, gamely getting up to win a nine furlong turf allowance with a 93 speed figure by a quarter-length. It should be noted that that 93 speed figure is the highest in the field among all races nine furlongs or longer.
Romp Factor: NO, she’s never won a turf allowance by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: NO, she didn’t improve upon her lifetime best speed figure in her first attempt at nine furlongs.
Bottom Line: While she doesn’t fit the profile of past Oaks winners, it’s hard to read too much into that because of her scant turf experience. The turf allowance field that she beat boasted a few very impressive fillies. In addition, it’s hard to discount the fact that she ran the fastest nine furlong plus speed figure among all of the fillies entered here. It would be no surprise if she runs a massive effort, perhaps even a winning effort.
5) Evelin, 3yo filly, 15/1, Z K Perry (18%), Even The Score x Moulin(GB) x Habitat, trained by paceman2 (aka. theatrical)
Profile: This lightly raced Even The Score filly is one of the lone graded winners heading postward to the Oaks. After failing to hit the board in her dirt debut she was switched to the turf and cruised to a two length victory running a mile. Theatrical sensed her great potential and ran her next in the G1 Train Yard Special. She shocked the Sim community by winning that race with a 90 speed figure by nearly two lengths. She was then stretched out to a G3 against the boys at 11 furlongs and finished a game second, losing by less than a length. In her most recent race she struggled through a 9.5 furlong stakes, finishing third by five lengths.
Romp Factor: NO, she’s never won a turf allowance by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: YES, she improved three points on her lifetime speed figure in her first race at nine furlongs or longer.
Bottom Line: It’s quite an accomplishment to win a G1 in your third start, but it may have come with a price for this filly. Her last run indicated that the consecutive graded runs so early in her career may have taken some starch out of her. There’s no doubt she’s very talented though, and a victory by her would surprise no one.
6) Kiss My Kris, 3yo filly, 12/1, C Brown (19%), Empire Maker x Kris S. x Nijinsky II, trained by slades (aka. stoners)
Profile: After going winless in her first four dirt starts, this impeccably bred daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker took beautifully to the turf. After running a game second in her turf debut going seven furlongs, she easily dispatched an MSW field at a mile on the lawn by nearly two lengths. She then went winless in two straight turf allowances but rebounded nicely after that to win two consecutive turf allowances, one at 8.5 furlongs and one at nine furlongs. Her most impressive run was that most recent turf effort at nine furlongs as she romped by three lengths with an 84 speed figure. Stoners prepped her for the Oaks with a dirt allowance at nine furlongs which could produce some nice mojo going back to the turf. She’s never been out of the money.
Romp Factor: YES, she’s won two turf allowances by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: NO, she didn’t improve on her lifetime best speed figure in her first race at nine furlongs or longer. However, she did romp by three lengths in that first nine furlong attempt.
Bottom Line: For all intents and purposes she fits the profile of an Oaks winner and her breeding suggests that the distance shouldn’t be a problem. The main questions revolve around her class, as she’s never faced stakes company, and her speed, as she’s never run higher than an 84 speed figure. It’s not, however, out of the realm of possibilities that she could explode and win the race.
7) Jaca, 3yo filly, 7/2, P Bangs (25%),
Profile: The first of rafastables’ two Oaks entrants, this scintillating
Romp Factor: NO, surprisingly she’s never won a turf race by more than two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: NO, she didn’t improve on her lifetime best speed figure in her first race at nine furlongs or longer.
Bottom Line: This immensely talented filly’s breeding and race profile indicate that she will not enjoy the Oaks distance. She might beat half the field on class alone, but I don’t foresee a top three finish in the cards.
8)
Profile: After going winless in her first four dirt attempts, it took another four turf tries for this Pikepass filly out of a very nice A.P. Indy mare to break her maiden. That first victory came in a 9.5 furlong race as she triumphed by two lengths with an 80 speed figure. In her next start she struggled in a nine furlong allowance, finishing fifth, and followed that up with a one length victory in an 11 furlong allowance with an 83 speed figure.
Romp Factor: NO, she’s never won a turf allowance by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: YES, she bested her lifetime high speed figure by one point in her first run nine furlongs of longer.
Bottom Line: While there is no doubt that this filly is a her best running long on the turf, there are a lot of doubts as to whether her best is good enough to compete in the Oaks. Stamina alone may result in her finishing in the top half of the field, but a top three finish is very unlikely.
9) Yield A Ton, 3yo filly, 20/1, M Ridenour (0%), High Yield x A.P. Indy x Tarleton Oak, trained by daedalus
Profile: After breaking her maiden on the dirt in her first start, this High Yield filly has yet to record a victory. That maiden breaker came at five furlongs and was followed up by two subpar dirt stakes tries. After running second in a dirt allowance at a mile she was switched to the turf and ran second, again in a mile. That race brought her a lifetime high speed figure of 84. Her juvenile campaign came to a close with an uninspiring effort in a 7.5 furlong turf stakes. She began her three-year-old season with consecutive off-the-board finishes in allowances, one on the dirt and one on the turf. In her most recent race she ran a decent second in an 11 furlong turf allowance with an 84 speed figure.
Romp Factor: NO, she’s never won a turf allowance by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: NO, she didn’t improve on her lifetime best speed figure in her first race at nine furlongs or longer.
Bottom Line: There aren’t many factors going in this filly’s favor this weekend, although her recent 84 speed figure at 11 furlongs is promising. But asking a filly who has never won on the turf to run well in the Oaks is a dubious proposition at best.
10) Perfecta, 3yo filly, 9/1, M Slater (22%), Pleasantly Perfect x Danehill x Key To The Mine, trained by bellissimo (aka. rafastables)
Profile: This lanky Pleasantly Perfect filly took a while to hit her best stride but has gotten much better with more ground. After recording only one victory in her first seven races, she found her groove towards the end of her juvenile season, winning two straight turf allowances at a mile, both by at least a length. She finished off her juvy campaign with a decent sixth in a turf stakes at a mile. For her three-year-old debut, rafastables wisely decided to stretch her out, and she responded with a flying second place finish in a 9.5 furlong turf stakes with a lifetime high 89 speed figure. After a failed attempt in a G3 mile after that, she was returned to longer racing and again ran second in a 9.5 furlong stakes, this time with a 90 speed figure. She’s coming off a dismal ten length loss in an 8.5 furlong stakes.
Romp Factor: NO, she’s never won a turf allowance by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: YES, she bested her lifetime high speed figure by four points in her first run nine furlongs of longer.
Bottom Line: Even though rafastables is also saddling the Breeders Bowl winner in this race, Perfecta looks to have a better chance to make an impact on the top three. I’d be more confident in her chances if she had an impressive long turf victory in the bag already, but I love the way she has closed in her two 9.5 furlong stakes. There will be a heated pace up front, and this filly should be tearing down the stretch late. A top three finish and perhaps even a win are definite possibilities.
11) Native Species, 3yo filly, 8/1, R Owen (16%), Medaglia d’Oro x Raise A Native x Riverman, trained by bodgit (aka. epic)
Profile: This very imposing Medaglia d’Oro filly showed tremendous ability on the dirt in her first three starts with an MSW win followed by a third in a G3 followed by a third in a listed stakes. Many trainers would have stayed on the dirt track after a similar start, but Epic decided to see if his charge liked the turf and it proved a tremendous decision. She romped her first turf try, a listed stakes at a mile, by two lengths with an 83 speed figure. After four consecutive off-the-board finishes in G1’s at either a mile or 9.5 furlongs on the turf, she was stretched out to 9.5 furlongs and smoked a listed stakes by two lengths with an 84 speed figure. In her most recent race she handled the stretch to 11 furlongs with aplomb, winning a listed stakes with a lifetime high 88 speed figure.
Romp Factor: YES, she’s won two turf stakes by at least two lengths..
Nine Furlong Factor: NO, she didn’t improve on her lifetime best speed figure in her first race at nine furlongs or longer. However, she won that race by two lengths and then ran her lifetime best speed figure at 11 furlongs, a very positive sign.
Bottom Line: This filly fits the Oaks profile to a tee if you assume she only ran as fast as she needed in her initial race at 9.5 furlongs. The only possible question mark is the fact that she’s never run a 90 speed figure, which puts her behind the curve a bit compared with some of the others in here. On that other hand, her stakes wins at 9.5 furlongs and 11 furlongs were both by at least two lengths so it’s quite possible we haven’t seen what she can really do. She is one of the top contenders to win.
12) Battle
Profile: This very lightly raced filly by Black Sam Bellamy won her first two starts, both on the turf. She debuted at nine furlongs and won by nearly two lengths with a 79 speed figure and then dropped to a mile and won an allowance by two lengths with an 85 speed figure. In her last two races she’s lost by ten lengths in stakes races, the first at 8.5 furlongs and the second at nine furlongs. She’s only run four races lifetime.
Romp Factor: YES, she won one turf stakes by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: NO, she didn’t improve on her lifetime best speed figure in her first race at nine furlongs or longer. Her lifetime best speed figure came at a mile.
Bottom Line: The placing is a bit ambitious for this filly who has struggled both times in stakes and has run markedly faster at a mile than at nine furlongs. She looks to be in very deep this weekend.
13) Happy Ruler, 3yo filly, 5/1, S Smelt (5%), Behrens x Copelan x Iron Ruler, trained by happystabl
Profile: The veteran of the field, this compact yet very appealing looking Behrens filly has already been to the post 17 times. She ran 11 times as a juvenile and sported a very nice 4 (2 2 0) turf record in her freshmen campaign. Her final race as a two-year-old came in a turf stakes at a mile in which she ran a game second with an 86 speed figure. After finishing second in her three-year-old debut in a seven furlong turf allowance, she rattled off four consecutive turf wins culminating with a very impressive two length triumph in an 8.5 furlong turf stakes with a 90 speed figure. Her final race before the Oaks was a G2 at nine furlongs against older fillies and mares in which she lost by 15 lengths despite running a career best 92 speed figure.
Romp Factor: YES, she’s won four turf races by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: YES, she improved her lifetime high speed figure by two points in her first nine furlong race.
Bottom Line: Fitting both of the important Oaks signifiers, she could make some major noise this weekend. Don’t be fooled by her most recent race as she ran against some very talented older fillies and mares. In fact, that race may have actually toughened her up a bit. She’s the likely leader from the gate and could lead for a very long time.
14) TSR’s Inner Child, 3yo filly, 17/1, O U Nog (8%), Shagny x Slew The Coup x Deputy Regent, trained by madeline
Profile: This modestly bred yet very attractive Shagny filly already boasts three stakes wins to her resume. She took two starts to break her maiden, doing it in a 5.5 furlong MSW. Three races later she captured stakes win number one with two length win going 5.5 furlongs. She followed that up with another open lengths stakes win at the same distance. Then after four consecutive mediocre stakes runs she was stretched out to 9.5 furlongs and responded very well with a narrow quarter-length victory and a lifetime best 84 speed figure. She comes into the Oaks off a third place finish in a 9.5 stakes with an 87 speed figure.
Romp Factor: YES, she’s won one turf race by at least two lengths.
Nine Furlong Factor: YES, she improved her lifetime high speed figure by three points in her first nine furlong race.
Bottom Line: While this filly is a dual-qualifier, I have doubts about if she’s fast enough to run with the others in here. That stakes victory at 9.5 furlongs came by only a quarter-length, which suggests that the 84 speed figure she ran was about her max. She could pick up a minor check but I don’t see her in the top three.
Predictions:
1) Native Species is in form and should get a nice stalking trip, plus there looks much room for improvement.
2) Perfecta should benefit from the probable frantic pace and should be rolling late.
3) Happy Ruler will probably throw down the gauntlet and play catch me if you can
Longshot) Kiss My Kris has never been out of the money and that trend could continue at a nice price