Tough Call in Even Grade 2 Field in Illinois
This week in
Previous results of The Statewide Pinhead Guild Stakes were:
2000 – Prospector Paunchi – 1.48.2 – SR 112
2001 – Enough Come – athletic – 1.49.6 – 101
2002 – Speedy Log – Gibson – 1.47.6 – 117
2003 – Tale of Two Places – nextbonus – 1.47.0 – 122
2004 – Birchwood Medway – slax – 1.47.8 – 115
2005 – Slither – peeps6 – 1.47.0 – 114
As can be seen from the history books, it is very likely that this week’s winner will need to cover the distance in around 1.48, and will need to be able to record a very healthy speed figure. We see a well balanced, even field of runners here, as indicated by the early markets, which have seven of the eight runners priced between 7/2 and 8/1. Any one of the seven could greet the judge without surprising.
We’ll work through the field in racebook order:
From the inside gate will emerge Tempest. He’s a winner of seven from twenty, including his most recent start in the Smart School Cap – G3, where he covered this trip in a most convincing 1.48.0. Tempest is an oscar homebred, and is following in his dams footsteps as a prolific winner. His mama, Miss Mama (Storm Cat / Kris S) also spent her racing life in the oscar barn, where she won an exceptional twenty races. On retirement she was mated with A.P. Indy to produce Tempest, who in turn is doing his part in upholding the stable strike rate. After winning two from five at two years of age, he was destined for high level black type racing at three, where a win in the Felipe Alou Cap – G2 and a second in the California Derby qualified him for last year’s Bluegrass Derby, where he finished mid-field. Wins in
Stormzapper occupies stall 2. A lightly raced five year old, he is well and truly due for a change of luck. Unable to greet the judge since his victory in Hong Kong’s Bertrando Handicap – G2, more than twelve months ago, he’s been mixing his form, generally returning healthy speed figures, but incapable of stringing together consistent performances. rosesinmay has every reason to expect him to perform at this level, as he’s proven he can be competitive against this quality of opposition. He looked to have the world at his feet early in his career, and it must be terribly frustrating to all concerned to see this winner of four of his first five runs struggle to regain his early spark. Stormzapper is a scratch bred son of Storm Cat / Gone West / Known Fact and he’s well deserving of his place in this field. Supporting him with the hard earned, however, would take a braver bettor than myself. He’s capable of a forward showing, and his connections deserve a top effort. His long losing steak has not fooled the odds makers, who are keeping him very safe at 9/2. Likely to settle rearwards, his competent jockey T. Baldwin should save plenty of ground mid-race, and to see him well in the mix at the business end will come as a huge relief to many, but as no real surprise.
Lining up in stall number 3 will be the outsider of the field Tree Huggin God, quoted at 19/1 in the early markets. A five year old veteran with forty starts under his belt, he would appear to be flying a little high against this level of competition. A last start low level allowance winner, he’s proven to be competitive at stakes level, although his best performances have been over longer trips where the pressure is not on for the entire journey. anzstable has done a good job in guiding this son of Forestry / Local Time / Red God to seven wins and more than a quarter of a million dollars in purses, but it is hard to see him adding to the scorecard this weekend. Factors including his one only career triple figure speed rating, and the inability of connections to secure an in-form rider, all add up to a victory by Tree Huggin God being the only way a real upset can occur in this event.
From stall 4 comes Old Pulpit, who although winless for more than six months, has strung together a series of handy performances. Homebred by sunkitten, Old Pulpit is the elder of two stakes class performers from the moderately performed (3 from 25, 52K) mare Old Bang (Seeking the Gold / Damascus). Sent to Pulpit for this breeding, the resultant colt has won five from twenty and banked the best part of a quarter of a million dollars. The biggest question mark facing him this week is the fact that he has, as yet, been unable to record a victory against black type opposition. He wasted very little time in progressing through the allowance ranks, tallying up his five wins within his first dozen starts. Old Pulpit is certainly overdue for that black type win, having registered four seconds recently, and the return to what appear to be his favored conditions this week may well provide the desired result. 8/1 appears to be a tad over the odds for this consistent colt, and he may prove the best value in the betting market.
Sensationalize, from gate 5, comes into the race with the perfect recent formline, having recorded a Grade 1 victory over this distance at his most recent outing, and as a result he shares the top line of betting at 7/2. A four year old scratchbred who has raced his whole career for the legendary dixiedotco barn, he carries the superb bloodlines of A.P Indy / Sadler’s Wells / Buckpasser. Clearly no expense was spared in the creation of this talented four year old, and he’s been expected to compete with the elite from the outset. After winning his maiden at his first and only run at two, it was straight into the big time, where he’s proven more than capable. A stakes win at start number two then third in the Fountain of Ute – G2 and second in the G1 Florida Derby positioned him as a likely triple crown contender just twelve months ago. Sensationalize didn’t quite measure up then, but he did sandwich a couple of graded thirds between an ordinary run in the New Yorker. A brief confidence boosting return to allowance racing at the end of his three year old season prepared him for another tilt at the top class at four. So far he’s produced solidly this season, his last three all in Grade 1 events, have resulted in a second and that previously mentioned last start victory in Arkansas’ Oaktree Handicap. The services of top jockey P.Munoz will only add to this colt’s chances, and he’s another who will be looking to giving away a big start and be motoring home late.
.
Affair of the Tiger lines up in number 6. A four year old colt with seven wins from twenty one, his current form is strong enough to ensure that he’s held in high regard in this very evenly matched, strong field. Bred by sending the well bred but poorly performed mare Tiger Theatre (Theatrical / Red Ransom) to Black Tie Affair, Affair of the Tiger wasted no time in out-performing his mother, with three wins, two seconds and a third from six starts in his two year old season, quickly justifying the decision of breeder / trainer delta2tigr. Not quite racing as consistently at three, he nonetheless won three races, including two stakes events, and brought home a check in eight of eleven starts. His four year old form has been solid, and Affair of the Tiger lines up here having won a stakes races two starts back before finishing third behind Tempest five weeks ago in the Smart School Cap – G3. The rain holding off has left the track condition is in his favor, and the fact that he and War Bluff are the only two runners who could be remotely interested in leading, could play into the hands of whichever horse and rider elect to set the tempo. With good current form, there is plenty to like about his chances, and the 7/1 on offer could prove to be overly generous.
Gate 7 will be occupied by War Bluff. Carrying a better than 50% strike rate (10 from 19), this one time cheap claimer comes into this looking to stretch his current streak to four, following allowance wins in Kentucky and New York and a last start victory in Arkansas’ Razorback Cap – G3. A four year old son of War Emblem / Pine Bluff / Irish Open, War Bluff has flourished since being claimed by reclaimed. He’s had nine starts for his current owner and has saluted the judge in eight of those, advancing from a 310k cpu restricted allowance to Grade 3 winner. The training performance involved in this colt’s turnaround is surely one of the sim’s great achievements, and there’s no reason to suspect the ride is coming to an end any time soon. The odds makers have shown the respect due to both horse and trainer by installing War Bluff as equal favorite at 7/2. Versatility may prove a telling point in this event as he’s one of only two likely to contest the lead. As he’s proven equally effective either on the pace, or working home from further back, jockey D. McCants has plenty of options. He may settle off the lead or he may well try to dictate terms and steal a break while many of the other jockeys are still timing their runs. In either case connections are due for yet another great sight from one of the game’s great bargains.
Outside barrier 8 is the starting position for Raider Property. Performing remarkably since entering the penamacor2 stable, this former claimer has soared to heights unimaginable a little more than twelve months ago. The first of four progeny of the well bred underperforming mare Miss Breeze (Kingmambo / Seattle Slew), the now five year son of Belong to Me was discarded by breeder glennspeck after eight starts. Second owner sexinalimo set him on the claiming trail for five runs until penamacor2 saw something worth having. 2005 saw Raider Property win seven races, six of them black type, culminating in the Grade 2 It’s all your fault stakes in
The Odds Makers opinion:
7/2 – Sensationalize, War Bluff
4/1 – Tempest
9/2 – Stormzapper, Raider Property
The Computer opinion:
Sensationalize – 16
Raider Property – 20
Tempest – 23
War Bluff – 136
Old Pulpit – 145