Big Race Preview 2832

Race: 2832.0115 San Francisco Capitan Handicap – Grade I – $400,000
Track: California
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf

What a juicy battle we have in store in California. Front Runner VS Closer and several others looking to throw a wrench into that show down. The favorite is a horse that likes to run near the pace Rain God. He flattened out last time out in the Sand Castle Golden Turf Classic. He was not as close to the early pace as he normally is and maybe that caused him to flatten out. The pace setter from that Sand Castle race is entered here as well so expect Rain God to be stalking in good striking position.

Horseshoe Bay is the closer. He ran down Rain God two races back and finished ahead of him last time out in the Sand Castle race. He has not been as dominate this year as he was last year but the competition in this division has become much better. I like his chances better with the shorter field here and no matter how far back he finds himself he will probably be a real bear in the stretch.

Puppet Regime was the shocking winner at the Sand Castle Golden Turf Classic. He improved his speed figure twenty-two points. He had an ideal trip behind the pace setters and ahead of the closers taking full advantage of the situation. Was that a one time fluke? He ran strong speed figures as a three year old close to the 112 he ran last time out so he seems legitimate. Confederacy (IRE) will be the pace setter. This time he might prove capable of going gate to wire. It is a smaller field, he may be able to shake clear by several lengths early so this could be his shot at scoring that elusive grade I win.   

Race: 2832.5415 Sydney Derby – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track: New South Wales
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf

The last two years the Sydney Derby has been a huge indicator of the coming long turf season for three year olds. Horseshoe Bay won last year and Sunnybank Memorial won the year before that. Will this race produce the next long turf star?

Creepshow (IRE) is the favorite and he is undefeated as a three year old with three grade I wins. He likes to sit mid pack in his races and closes out well each time. He has won on the firm turf and the yielding turf was no problem for him either. This will be his first run at this distance and his pedigree looks a little speedy but this guy’s running style says he will not have a problem with the distance. Creepshow (IRE) is a favorite that will be tough to beat.

Skills in Magic is a deep closer that is bred for this distance. He has been winning at shorter distances and is a grade I winner. He just missed last time out in a grade I finishing just three quarters of a length behind the winner. He will now have a lot more distance to make up ground and should with out a doubt improve with the distance.

The Super gang has a couple of interesting runners here. Good to be King is by Smarty Jones. You would think dirt with Smarty Jones but the dam of Good to be King was bred for just these type of races (long on the turf). Up till his last race his speed figures had not been at a high enough level to compete with the top runners. In his last race he gave Creepshow (IRE) all he could handle. The other Super runner is Listen to the Lion. His last two races have not been good. One was over a yielding surface the other he could not catch the pace. I think the added distance puts him in a more favorable position and sets him up for a return to his grade III winning form that would put him in the thick of things here. 

Race: 2832.5414 Sydney Sprint – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track: New South Wales
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: Five and one half furlongs on the Turf

The grade I sprint only drew a field of twelve. Digging the Grave is wheeling back after running fourth last week and is the morning line favorite. It would be quite a feat to wheel back and win this race. He has dangerous speed that all must respect. He was run down by the top turf sprinter last week and faces some tough runners here so it is hard to see him doing well.

Otto O is the co favorite. He has some great speed figures but does it from closing way off the pace. He does well on turf or dirt but the distance may compromise his chances a bit. Digital Overture is all speed. He has been very good at this distance winning the last two times. This will be his first start since not running well at the Equinics and he may need a race to get fully going.

Danz Song Bird is another speedster. He has been setting the pace at the listed level recently and running solid speed figures. It would not be a huge surprise to see him wire this field with a little improvement. Offstage (GB) is a runner that has flashed the ability to win a race like this but has not done it consistently enough. Dontpassthebux G has won three of four since switching to the turf. His last was pretty solid and if he can repeat that he has a chance here.

Race:2832.5413 Sydney Mile – Grade I – $1,500,000
Track: New South Wales
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: One mile on the Turf

Congo is the ever so slight favorite. The top two milers ran in last weeks grade I at a mile and that leaves this race with a big purse fairly wide open. Congo is very capable of the 110+ speed figure and has done that twice in his last four races winning a grade I and a grade II. You can throw out the other two efforts one of the yielding turf the other at a distance not his best. Congo will be pressing the pace and is the horse to beat here.

Mizzen Dizzie won the Breeder’s Bowl Mile at the end of last year. He really took advantage of a lack of speed in that race but he will have pressure here. His training schedule of late has been a bit odd. He took some time off and came back with a nice allowance win but it has been six weeks since that first race back. Beyer Beware could be on the verge of establishing himself as a top miler. He just missed a couple of times earlier this year and at a mile and a sixteenth he has won a grade I and a grade III this year. He is back at a mile and with a little fine tuning could be capable of taking down Congo.