Speedy Field in the Pebbles

The six previous runnings of Nebraska’s Grade II Pebbles Flintstones Stakes have been dominated by fillies running on or just off the lead.  That may explain why this year’s event has attracted a full field where 12 of the 14 runners prefer that style.  And that may explain why this year it may well set up for one coming off the pace.

“We are very pleased with the field we have his year,” beamed the racing secretary.  Indeed three of the top twenty young sprinters in the world have shipped in for this, and that doesn’t even include the morning line favorite.

Here is a look at the field:

1. You Can’t Catch Me (Cryptoclearance x Strike Gold) finished a nose behind Skippy last time.  She has one third in four graded tries and owns two stakes wins.  Twelve stakes attempts already for the young HawgFan1 (10%) trainee.  The stakes wins came early in here career, but in her favor she has shown some ability to rate recently, and that should come in handy in this speed filled race. 8-1.

2. Jokes On BBor (The Deputy x Jokester) is one of several who figure to battle for the early lead.  Killerz (9%) coaxed a nice improvement in a speed figures last time for his filly, but she will need to make another jump in ability to take this, and the pace scenario looks too tough to overcome. 14-1.

3. Tries at a route two back and grass last time have darkened the form for Silver Strav (Stravinsky x Silver Hawk).  Throw those two out and the Emb2 (18%) trainee looks like she is coming into this on a streak of five straight firsts or seconds and a four of eight lifetime record.  Her running style is perfect for this race.  To bet her, you do have to ignore the smallish speed figures and rationalize that there has to be some reason you get the longest odds on the board. 18-1.

4. Rated the number two three-year-old sprinter in the world with her 9-5-2-2 record, Smokin Lois (Smoke Glacken x Eastern Echo) will likely try a last to first rally.  That strategy hasn’t worked before in the Pebbles, but the Molwr (14%) trainee has a great chance to be the first.  She already has two graded wins.  Gets the top jockey, who is winning at a 26% clip in 2006.  Any reason to worry?  Well, she never really challenged the two fillies who beat her last time in the Cadoka Stakes, Cheyenne Gold and Upsetter, and they are both here again today. 6-1.

5. The Cadoka Stakes may be a key to predicting this one.  Upsetter (Golden Missile x Clever Trick) always seems to get caught up in a speed duel.  Last time in the Cadoka it was with Cheyenne Gold who shows up again today along with several other early types.  That is not a death knell for this very game filly, however, as she has managed a dirt sprint record of 8-4-3-0.  The MikeHusker (14%) trainee always seems to be around in the end. 9-1.

6. Just three races ago, Apt to Fly (Aptitude x Forty Niner) was four out of five in sprints.  That sounds better than her current four out of eight, doesn’t it?  Actually if we only look at dirt sprints except for graded stakes, the Punter69 (14%) trained filly has a record of 5-4-0-1.  She fits very well in this and her stalking style is to be preferred here.  She does need to pick up her speed figures.  13-1.

7. Skippy (Afleet x Buckaroo) outrallied You Can’t Catch Me to win The American Cat last time with a very good time.  With four wins and a second in five sprints, the Scout4 (9%) trainee is ranked fifth among three-year-old sprinters and this may be her best distance.  She had two graded win as a two-year-old; looks to be a major player here. 10-1.

8. Strong Prospect (Strong Hope x Mr. Prospector) beat Upsetter and Jokes on BBor three back, beat Upsetter two back, but then faded to finish behind Cheyenne Gold, Upsetter, and Smokin Lois last time in the Cadoka.  The Buttons (11%) trainee still has four wins in six sprint tries.  The question is what to make of that last race.  If that’s the start of a decline, expect further decline here.  If she can bounce back there is real value here. 10-1.

9. Grand Causeway (Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy) is used to having her way with the early pace.  The Super16 (23%) trainee has cleared the field in her last four races, winning three of them.  The winner of the DelPenn Juvenile Filly Sprint has faded a bit in her three graded tries.  Other than those, she is six of seven in dirt sprints.  Don’t discount. 9-1.

10. Sword of PGPG (Crusader Sword x Sadler’s Wells) had a streak of four straight stakes wins as a two-year-old.  She is winless in four tries this year, but has been flying late in her last two and it looks to be just a matter of time for the DGDG (10%) trainee.  Five of the six previous Pebbles Flintstones have been won with speed figures in the mid 100’s and Sword has yet to top 91, so she’ll need a boost today. 12-1.

11. Incredible Peg (Fusaichi Pegasus x Tabasco Cat) has three firsts and three seconds in her six dirt sprints, and she figures to be right there among the early leaders.  Her other try in graded company was in the 8 ½ furlong Santa Jezebel where she was well clear for half the race before fading to sixth.  The speedy filly is two for three in sprint stakes, but she never faced more than five foes in those.  She is another who would need to make a large improvement in speed figures to be around at the end.  The talented TG1 (18%) trains. 11-1.

12. The winner of the key Cadoka Stakes, Cheyenne Gold (Seeking the Gold x A.P. Indy), made just the kind of jump in speed figures to win that race that many others are hoping for – she improved by 10 points over her previous sprint to post the highest figure in today’s field.  Now four for four in dirt sprints, the most impressive thing about the last victory was how she battled the game Upsetter for most of the race and then finished her off with style.  Her lone two losses came in stakes routes where she had the lead after seven furlongs.  Ozioziozi (13%) has done a masterful job with this regally bred filly.  The favorite at 5-1.

13. Coffee’s (Housebuster x Seattle Slew) win in a graded stakes came about 11 months ago. With her early successes she still ranks in the top twenty sprinters – at least for the time being.  Her win last time in an allowance race was in a time and a style that makes her fit with these.  Masterful trainer thinks she is ready to win again.  Coffee has been first or second in eight of ten dirt sprints, but most of her recent sprints have been in small fields.  She tried a couple routes and both time ended up on wet tracks.  Trainer Catomine (21%) has yet to find out if it’s the distance or the wet surface the filly dislikes.  15-1.

14. Arabian Sun (Desert Sun x Mr. Prospector) is another with early speed and a need to improve her speed figures.  This time of the year one hopes to see a pattern of recent improvement in a three-year-old.  The V8Mullet (12%) trainee seems to have leveled off.  Five finishes in the money in nine dirt sprint stakes tries is a nice record however.  13-1.

Morning Line: 12-4-1-5

Timmn’s picks: 12-7-5-3