Nell Gwyn Stakes Grade III
Epsom stages this years renewal of the Nell Gwyn stakes, and as befits what is traditionally one of the best 1000 Guineas trials, there’s a very nice field of 13 three year old fillies taking their chance. The weather has been fine, lately, and there are no excuses for any of them regarding the going, which is perfect firm turf.
Whether any of these have English classic aspirations will probably become clear after today’s race, but they all seem to be taking their chance here on merit, whether its based on last years form, or the typical improvement that the fillies seem so often to make from 2 to 3. The market is wide open, with a 9/2 favourite and the next seven in the betting being separated by only 2 points. If those dastardly bookies are struggling to split em, what chance does your reporter have?
Grassy Smeltzer sits nicely in stall 1 and looks like she belongs there. M Myers has the leg up on godmama’s lightly raced but definitely classy filly and if they can hold their position on the inside round tattenham corner once the pace setters are away, they could get a nice run up the rail when the camber takes the frontrunners wide as is often the case at Epsom. The horse seems ready for the step up to a mile and the way she worked through her allowance conditions and into ungraded stakes with 4 straight wins implies she should be up to group 3 class. She did however run an uncharacteristically poor race last time, finishing way down the field in the Il Nikita memorial stakes over 7f. She’s out again quickly on two weeks rest, and the trainer obviously feels that was not a true reflection of her ability. I would concur with that view, as would the market which sends her off as 8/1 third best. All in all, this one should give a good run for any money placed on her and her strong late running style could pay dividends.
Directly on her outside is J Lawler on Black Pearls. Darkfall’s Seeking the gold filly took a long time to win her first allowance race when campaigned exclusively on dirt tracks and looked unlikely to prove as good as her pedigree suggested. When switched to the green carpet two back, however she sprouted wings to annihilate a fairly average NW2L field. This gave the trainer hope that she would prove her worth and a very nice 2nd in the well contested
Irh’s Folk Tales(JPN) in stall 3 is another who seems to have liked the switch to turf on her last couple of runs. D Bowie seems certain to break the gate in order to get this one on the bunny and she loves to bowl along in front. Last time out in the Granny Final handicap stakes over today’s trip, these tactics failed by the narrowest of margins, beaten two noses into third by the top rated turf filly Super Gold. That is cracking form, and if she can sneak enough of a lead as they come round the bend, she could well keep it a long way down the straight as Epsom’s downhill finish is notoriously kind to those with a lead. Another that is difficult to weigh up on the balance of her dirt runs, she is better than the bare facts of no stakes wins suggests and could be value at 10/1 on the morning line.
Coroner’s filly, Dehere’s Gold comes here in sparkling form, having decisively won her last two starts since the turn of the year. She is the number 18 ranked turf filly over sprint trips, and if this were over 7 furlongs instead of a mile, your reporter would be arranging a meeting with his mortgage consultant as we type. She has won five times from 12 starts, including 1 group three and two stakes wins and looks a very classy act. The one question which can be levelled at her however, is the fact that her only time out of the top two since her switch to turf was a very poor 10th in a stakes race over today’s trip. That was off the back of her win in the Group 3 Honeydew stakes last year and it could just be that the race had taken more out of her than her trainer thought, but it still leaves a chink of light for the others. T Nugent will probably sit just off the pace with her and steadily wind it up from 3 out, 13/1 seems a huge price when you look at what she has achieved.
Polish not gone is a 23/1 chance and that big price may just reflect her chance here. By Polish precedent, out of aGone West mare, she’s undoubtedly a nice filly with, several close up stakes finishes to her name, but Meguire and jockey D Mustaine may be tilting at windmills a little. The reason for this assertion, which is the sort of thing that often sees us hacks eating large portions of humble pie after the event, is that the horse didn’t seem to enjoy her two runs on turf as a 2 y o, turning in very average speeds on these occasions. She would also appear to be better over shorter trips on the balance of her form and with twelve runs under her belt, unless those two turf runs were totally false, its hard to see where the improvement to trouble the principles her is going to come from.
The next one is a really interesting filly; foton’s Sparks Fly could be very aptly named. A Belong to me half sister to 2 million sim dollar winner Surf the Turf, this is one of the babies of the field in terms of race course experience. If her 93 speed figure in a 7.5f allowance is a true reflection however, she could really be a star in the making. Jockey B Dawg is likely to jump her out of stall 6 and try to sit just off the pace before unleashing a run. If she picks up like she did in her last run against this admittedly much tougher field, we could be looking at a future great, but she could just as easily find this step up in class beyond her. That’s the beauty of racing; they are all potential stars until proven otherwise. Will this one pass some who are near the top of the tree to look down on the sim world? Who knows but odds of 9/1 say she might.
Cdragon’s Lollipop Guild(IRE) comes out of stall 6 and is yet another with a chance if making the step up into group company a successful one. G Montoya is in the plate and will track the pace on her hoping for a repeat of the 92 sp she posted when second in the Queen Bluffy hcap stakes last time out. A daughter of Theatrical, she would be expected to love the grass and so it has proved with 3 allowance wins and 4 stakes places from 10 runs. She has done a lot of her racing over sprint trips however, and two of her more disappointing 2yo runs were over today’s mile trip so the jury is still out on whether it suits, but it’s only half a furlong further than that last run so should be within her compass. She’s 13/1 to pick up the paycheck, so some people must doubt she’ll stay, we will know shortly.
Port Kitten has been a revelation this season. Mewlp’s daughter of Tale of the cat had always looked a nice horse in the making at two, winning four allowance races, but looking just short of the class required for stakes races. Her trainer obviously did something right with her over the winter though as she has now rattled of three wins and a second from four stakes starts this year. She comes here off an electric win in the Jack Razing stakes posting a 96 sp over 9f on fast dirt surface, and seems equally at home on turf. She’s also won at distances between 5.5 and 9 furlongs showing that she is a really versatile performer. If she reproduces that last dirt run here, it could be all over, but if these things were that simple we’d all be typing these write-ups from a beach in
The best there is(IRE) may not be that exactly, but this pretty daughter of Best of the bests out of Danehill is bred to be good, and has shown herself to be very useful. She won three times as a 2yo in allowance grade, was place twice in stakes and ran very well in group races without hitting the board. She hasn’t won from 4 attempts at three, but boast a couple of decent stakes placings. The fact that she raced over 11f last time suggests that her trainer, poocher, harbours a slight doubt over whether she quite has the speed for this trip, and I agree. None the less she is a nice filly and will undoubtably be staying best of all for jockey C Spoerer. Her price of 9/1 suggests that several judges think that she could grind the speedsters down, but we shall see.
Theatrical’s Street Away(IRE) is a nice daughter of Street Cry who took a while to break her duck despite some nice runs in good maidens. She has since made up for lost time however, with a couple of nice allowance wins before a stunning third place in the group 1 El Pato Estupendo Especial behind Frostfang and No Apagues La Luz. Although she was well held, seven legths behind the first two, she had some very nice sorts behind her that day and a reproduction of that run would certainly take some beating. Connections may have been slightly disappointed with her latest second in the 9f Exbournes Lope stakes, but it was a nice run in hindsight which should have put her spot on for today. Another who is likely to sit mid pack under jockey R Poulin, she’s 7/1 co second favourite here and should run another sound race.
Jump my guest represents the local marks1 stable here and would be a popular winner in the Epsom training community. She is nice Jump Start filly, out of a Be My Guest mare, but looks to be held on Queen Bluffy stakes form by Lollipop Guild. That said, the trainer has told me that she came back lame from that race. As she looks to really enjoy covering a stretch of ground on the turf, with some nice runs over 9f and if the extra half a furlong does over extend Lollipop Guild, the placings could be reversed. Three back she ran a nice second behind Comet in the Our Wheels(GB) challenge stakes over 9f and is another who will not fail through lack of stamina. Jockey T Liverson is likely to jump quickly from stall 11 and try to run the speed out of the others, but odds of 26/1 suggest that the pairing may not last out in the lead.
Greenappl2 is hoping that his Blackpool Lights(IRE) is going to illuminate the sim and that could well be the case. The beautifully bred daughter of Giants Causeway boasts Saddlers wells and Nureyev as her direct descendants and on that alone has more chance of proving a big hit than this hack’s puns. She is another, like Sparks Fly, who could be anything as her four races to date have all been run with nice speeds, and include an allowance win and stakes place at the first time of asking. The distance and going both look ideal for her and jockey J Tull is expected to keep her towards the pace. She will almost certainly go on to a very bright future in these type of races, but there is just the nagging question of whether this has come a little too soon.
Gypsy Angel is the top ranked of these at the classic trip, and owner holybull99 certainly looks to have a nice one here. She’s a daughter of High Chaparral, out of the same trainer’s Organic project, a prolific broodmare who was placed in 6 group races in her day, winning 1 group 3. If, as looks likely, she turns out to be as good as her big half brother, big bones billy, there will be smiles all round, and she’s well on her way to his almost half a million career earnings to date. Three back, she ran an eye catching third in the 3yo turf fillies equinics race, and whilst her two subsequent runs have not been winning ones, they have been good solid efforts earning a 90 sp over today’s going and trip two back. Whilst she hasn’t won for a while, she has only been out of the places twice in 9 turf starts and will take a bit of beating. Jockey R Harzheim will probably let the early pacers take each other on before unleashing a late burst.
All in all then, a very competitive race, with several established top flight fillies taking on some possible rising stars, cases can be made for most of them, as is proven by the open betting market, and I will give a tentative nod to Port Kitten to beat Dehere’s Gold with Sparks Fly for third. Obviously hopefully all of the field will give their true running, come back sound and hopefully prove to be horses worth following in the rest of the campaign.