Sloppy Track and Distance Creates Questions

Stakes
One mile and three sixteenths
Sloppy Dirt             $45,000
All horses, 3 years old

There has been enough rain this week in the Tar Heel state to consider changing the name of this stakes event.  If there had been a fire, I am sure that by now, all the smoke would be long gone from the area.  No smoke and a very wet and heavy running surface exist in the area of Carolina Downs on Saturday.

Junior Smokey is a nine year old horse that burned up the track several times in his sixty starts.  A career purse earner of $399, 000 ( 11 wins;), which included four stakes triumphs. 

The JUNIOR SMOKEY Stakes has been run on the dirt one previous time in North

Now, for the 2006 field:

Rahy x Danzig Connection

Stakes debut (LTO) was a bit disappointing, but ownership remains optimistic over the development of this runner.  He won two races back at this distance, and is expected to carry the distance.  He runs better when he remains in a close stalking position, so a good break out of the gate is important.  Another note is that JURASSIC RAPIER is two for two on “off-tracks”, so he may like to go for a swim on Saturday.

Silver Ghost x Tale of the Cat

Still learning the ropes with only seven career starts.  He broke his maiden two races back and did not like his debut in stakes competition LTO.  He ran a good “place” finish over the slop, so he may be a threat.  A few races at allowance level events might be a better position for him.

Woodman x Dubai Millnium(GB)

He has looked good in three straight starts, but has never faced an off-track before.  One positive note is that his sire Woodman is known among the simsters as a producer of runners that like a wet surface.  He is the co-favorite and deserves this role. He likes to pressure the early pace, and has proved himself at this distance.

Black Tie Affair(IRE) x Affirmed

Two questions up in the air with this runner- Can he carry the distance (only two career wins were at 6 furlongs), and will he handle the wet slop?  In this field, I will hold back support until I see the answers.

Miesque’s Son x Sadler;s Wells

A late runner that would benefit from a good pace, and some horses tired of the surface and mud in the face.  However, he is 0 for 2 on off tracks, but one was on a “yielding” surface.  The other off track trip was not as bad as one would think, so he could sneak into the picture late.

Polish Precedent x Shadeed

I like three things about this co-favorite (with REMEMBER EBRO), and those things are (1) he has been consistently in the money in his last several trips, (2) he has won on a wet surface, and (3) he closed nicely at nine furlongs LTO and may benefit from the added distance.  If the early pace is slow, he may be close to the front. If the pace is honest, I would expect him to patiently wait for the turn to make his move.

Kingmambo x Nureyev

Another closer that has shown much promise in his last few starts.  Untested on an off track is a concern, but turf breeding may benefit him on this wet dirt surface.  He has shown the talent to put him ahead of this field.  Note that leading jockey Naber chose this ride over other entries- maybe he knows something that we don’t know.

Sakhee x FortyNiner

He should be the pace setter, and has handled nine furlongs before.  However, he has not run at this distance and on a wet track, so he may find the going too tough.  If he gain his footing, he may pull out early on to a sizeable lead.  I would not toss him out of the picture at this time.  

Summary:  A good balanced field of runners that could be separated by the conditions of the track.  The question of how some of the runners will handle the distance and wet surface makes the selections a challenge. 

Selections:  PROCEED THE DEED (win)               PACIFIC EMPIRE    (place)              ENDURANCE KEY (show)             MIESQUE’S PHYL (fourth)

-deajai