Big Turf Race Grade 1

That is the Big Question everyone is asking in today’s Grade I Big Turf Race. Only two of today’s starters have had a speed rating of 100 or higher in their past two starts, Rebel Yell N and Dancin In Seattle. On paper this looks a rather soft field for a Grade I event, but the comparitive mediocrity should make for a tough and exciting race.

No. 1 Make Me Forget 13/1 (Manilla x Run The Gauntlet x Crepello (GB))

Trainer: Miltinho

Lightly raced 5yo that has been racing in ungraded Stakes of recent times with a modicum of success, with 3 wins and 3 minor placings in his past 6 starts after being soundly beaten by 20 lengths in his last graded try in the Longchamp Marathon over 2 miles. Loves leading and dictating the pace in his races but with 3 or 4 others of the same ilk in this race, is doubtful he will get his own way up front.

No. 2  Brilliant 5/1 – (Fantastic Light x Saddler’s Wells x Unbridled)

Trainer: Vsmdinc

Has been mixing distances between 7.5 and 12 furlongs recently without any noticable success Along with this his trainer seems to have changed his instructions to the jockey, to ease back into the pack early compared to previously looking to ride him right up front. All these changes seem to have done no more than confuse the poor horse, and accordingly his confidence has suffered. At 5/1 pre-post seems to be well under the true odds. 

No. 3 Roidazoid (Ire) 8/1 – (Theatrical (Ire) x Affirmed x Northfields)

Trainer: Aahir

Another of those in this race that prefer to be out front, and unlikely to get his own way. Has been consistant recently in ungraded Stakes, he has attempted the jump to graded class a few times without impressing, but this softer Grade I field gives him the chance to improve on that record

No. 4 Rebel Yell N 5/1 – (War Chant x Persian Bold (Ire) x Bounding Basque)

Trainer: Lordpye

The only lady in the field, and on recent form the boys may only be watching her derriere as they pass the post. Preferring to race towards the back of the field and come charging down the stretch, this 6yo War Chant mare should be the cause of many “Rebel Yells” from the grandstand over the final 2 furlongs.

No. 5  Elite Warrior 32/1 – (Dynaformer x Dubai Millenium (GB) x Deputy Minister)

Trainer: Francy2

Looks completely outclassed here. He has been racing in allowance NW1x recently and finally broke through. Only recent Stakes race was the ungraded Rifle Butthead Memorial where he was tailed off last the entire journey of 13 furlongs beaten over 30 lengths.

No. 6  Ol Twinkle Toes (Ire) 14/1 – (Theatrical (Ire) x Pleasant Tap x Marquetry)

Trainer: Hornfrog3

Has been racing ultra consistantly in ungraded Stakes recently. Makes the jump to graded here, and the softness of the field certainly works in his favor,although prefer his chances of taking home one of the minor cheques, rather than the main prize.

No. 7  Casey’s Quest 19/1 – (Gulch x Rainbow Quest x Nureyev)

Trainer: Stalcasey

Another of those that likes to set the pace and could get caught up in a war up front. If he does his recent habit of fading at the business end of his races could come home to haunt him. However if his trainer instructs his jockey to sit just behind the early pace, he could cause a boil over at long odds.

No. 8  Thrill Is Gone 6/1 – (Red Ransom x Rainbow Quest x Secretariat)

Trainer: Mano2

This race should be run to suit his stalking style, ridden perfectly mid pack in his last two starts he both races off in style – winning by over 7 and 3 lengths respectively eased down both in a solid 99 SP. Definitely a very strong chance here to take a Graded win.

No. 9  Mokele Mbembe 7/1 – (Forty Niner x Septieme Ciel x Darby Creek Road)

Trainer: Reems11

Named to be a race caller’s nightmare, this 7 yo son of Forty Niner is another likely to get caught up in the push to dominate the early pace. As with all the other potential leaders, he doesnt appear to have the outright ability to dominate the others and any attempt to do so will only serve to hurt them all.

No. 10 Dancin In Seattle 9/2 – (Danzig x Seattle Slew x Fappiano)

Trainer: Eliza

Will be sent out as the favourite on race day, and righfully so as number 8 ranked older Turf Horse over the Long course. Easily the highest ranked horse in this race he is also the only one that has been consistantly racing in this class (7 of last 8 starts have been Grade 1). The only potential drawback is that he likes to set the pace, and if the expected war upfront eventuates, it will leave him wide open to the closers.

No. 11 Royal Guest 14/1 – (General Royal x Weekend Guest x Paristo)

Trainer: Thereason

Another moving up from ungraded Stakes class for another shot at the big time of Grade 1, unfortunately he is a little like a Formula Ford race car trying to take on Formula One.

No.12 Psycho Babble 9/1 – (Event of the Year x Northern Dancer x Mr Prospector)

Trainer: Steff

Well beaten in last three starts (total in excess of 50 lengths) yet still claimed a check in each of them. Times suggest that is capable of again earning a minor portion of the prize money, but would surprise to finish in the top 3.

The real problem in handicapping this race is going to be seeing who wins the race within the race – the race for the early pace domination. Unless there is a major change in tactics by the trainers of the horses concerned all I can see is those horses setting the race up for the best deep closer inthe race Rebel Yell N.

My Tips

1. No. 4 Rebel Yell N

2. No. 8 Thrill Is Gone

3. No. 9 Dancin In Seattle

Good luck and Good Punting