10th edition of Bargain Derby

* Grammar tolerance is advised

All sim heads are turned to Kentucky this weekend. Majority of them is focused on Bluegrass Derby. Yes, ok, it’s nice, but two hours before the big race, a couple of trainers with a great enthusiasm for cheap and inventive breeding, have their big moment.
Bargain derby (9.5F), one of the oldest races of bargain bred racing series (and simply the opening race of this great tradition) celebrates its 10th edition. Many trainers and beautifully bred horses (sorry gcliffo..I’ve read your article about Bluegrass Oaks and the most beautiful pedigrees have those competing in bargain bred racing series…no offense :)) met each other in this race (and series off course). I’ll discuss some of these results in analysis later. Anyway, it’s been a long time and as always, thanks to Morgan (Knightmare) who keeps this great alternative alive.

This year’s edition attracted 13 horses of respected bargain trainers. Some of the horses have a big chance to win, some of them are here to be a part of celebration, some of them are mysterious newcomers. As it should be.
Let’s follow the bookmaker advice and sort them by their odds.

34/1
3 – SWISS POWER (SWISS YODELER x SUBTLE POWER (IRE) x CELESTIAL STORM)

One of two biggest outsiders comes from Mtk’s stables, strong member of bargain racing community. Today is a big test for Swiss Power. In his 5th start he leaves claim races company and goes right to the derby. It is not only about facing strong opponents, but the question is also the distance. In his pedigree, it’s combined sprint sire with lot of stamina in his dam-sire and dam-dam-sire. With this backend, the derby distance doesn’t necessary need to be a problem, but a lack of class could be.

10 – LATE FOR THE TRAIN (BULLET TRAIN (GB) x ROYAL ANTHEM x MANNDAR (IRE))

Also second outsider is horse from Mtk’s. Trainer of the greatest bargain horse of all times, immortal Slave to Tradition, brings couple of unpredictable runners today. Nevertheless, Late for the Train is very interesting derby participant. Despite, he is still maiden, he shows some potential, which might be uncovered in future starts. He has just three starts experience. He made his debut in bbrs stakes The Sandford, which resulted in 3rd spot. That was quite a debut! After another turf maiden, he rested for half a year and changed the stable (inside his connections). After long break, he was just half a length in the synthetic maiden race for bargains. With Sadler’s Wells and Theatrical in the back, I have no doubts about his stamina abilities. The problem could be less of maturity in these days as well as dirt surface. But may be not. Anyway, I think this is the name to remember for the future.

20/1
4 – LOST THE GOODS (GOT THE GOODS x LOST OPPORTUNITY x SOLAR CITY)

With 20/1 comes Lost the Goods, colt from the boss’ Knightmare stables. And when the boss has horse in the ring, you should always pay attention. Except he stands behind the idea, he is also player with a big knowledge about sires. That’s why his horses never should be underestimated. But this time, allow me some blashphemy. Lost the Goods is getting better with each start, still there is not enough class in him. He was finally able to break his maiden last time in claim race, also distance doesn’t need to be a problem, but there is better material in the race today. May be, he will develope in the future (may be also surface switch could help him as off-track fondness is sometimes a clue), but I don’t believe in him today.

19/1
9 – XAARO (XAAR x DAVID JUNIOR x DOUBLE TRIGGER (IRE))

Meet Lgbost. When looking at horses from his stables, remember one thing, the odds always lie! Lgbost is very well known to sense hidden ability and show it when the time comes. His first participant, Xaaro, is pretty experienced horse. He also took a part in 2yo bargain events last year, but wasn’t fast enough. Since that time, he tries his luck in hot races over long distances and it works perfectly and Xaaro absolutely doesn’t need to fight to win there and beat even older opponents. We all know, that this is stakes race and it is far away from hot allowances…but to expect Xaaro on the 10th spot like bookmakers say? I don’t think so. Xaaro can only surprise nicely his owner…with no stress or expectations. Because Lgbost has something much bigger in this race…

14/1
11 – OPEN TO ALUMNI (BELLAMY ROAD x ALUMNI HALL x DARE AND GO)

The biggest chance of mtk in the derby is Open to Alumni. This is just his 4th career start, but young chestnut develops rapidly (btw. is it just me or there is big decrease of chestnuts in new sim? :)). In his second start, he won bbrs maiden with nice 91 speed and despite some doubts he even improved it in Ozark derby, the derby trial. With nice 96, he finished on the 4th place with massive 24/1 odds. The bookmakers still don’t believe him much, but I do. He is front runner, but he also has pedigree of dirt route runners, which perfectly fits for today’s occasion. We probably find the distance limit for some of the horses today, but I think it won’t be Open to Alumni’s case.

12/1
6 – STORMING JET (STORMING HOME x JET MASTER (SAF) x NORTHERN GUEST)

Another in the field is strong finishman Storming Jet from South-African patriot Dragnil. Four weeks ago, in his 8th start, he finally got his first win, beating Late for the Train by half-length. This is another horse, who probably won’t have troubles with distance. But as some others before, he is still lacking some class, which is needed today. But he has also big chance to surprise. He made majority of his races on turf, winning synthetic last time. His only dirt appearance resulted in 2nd place in maiden. But it was sprint race, bringing speed mark increase anyway. Anything can happen here, including “positive effect” of surface switch. One of the biggest mysteries for me today.

11/1
8 – SLIPPERY TRUTH (DIKTAT (GB) x TALKIN MAN (CAN) x SLIP ANCHOR (GB))

I was quite harsh to first of Knightmare’s horses in this race..so let’s calm down the situation right now. The horse, you should pay attention to is Slippery Truth. It is not very common in bargain races to get 90+ speed marks since the second start. Ok, he is not only one here, but still it is impressive. He is bit unexperienced though. Having just three starts and also no dirt experience. If we would look at his pedigree only, we could ask about distance issues. On the other hand, Slippery Truth has decent 2nd place from allowance over 9F, which could reduce our concerns a bit. And that missing dirt experience? We could ask Morgan, if he doesn’t plan another “Mimbo Hill trick”. We’ll discuss that later.

8/1
13 – A BE B (J BE K x CACTUS RIDGE x OLD TRIESTE)

Gowans is another great bargain trainer. First of his two participants is called A Be B. Colt, who haven’t started in bargain stakes yet, but has already one experience from regular stakes race. He improved massively in february in bbrs allowance, reaching great speed of 99. In march, he finished 4th in 8.5F Sewing the Sum Dirt Route. It is always big impuls for trainer to have a bargain horse competing successfully on regular stakes level. Without any doubts, A Be B is horse who has a big class in this field. But, this time I have small doubts about his distance abilities. A Be B has a strong front running style, which is no problem, but also pedigree, which could find a limit around one mile. Let’s look, if I have truth or not.

7/1
5 – ZANTE REGAL (DEAL WORLD x DISTINCTLY NORTH x ROYAL PREROGATIVE (GB))

Zante Regal is second horse from Dragnil’s stable. More classy one. He already has rich experience from bargain stakes races. Did some great job on turf, finish 2nd in The Winchester. In march, he switched from turf to dirt and it has seemed to be a good step. Finally, he kept 3rd spot from the Ozark derby. He is still waiting for a big win. I have to admit, that I think he will wait even after the derby. He is strong experienced runner, but might have some problems with distance.

7 – NEWBAR LONHRO (ZACINTO x MASTER COMMAND x LONHRO)

Hawkz is probably the biggest bargain racing trainer with the biggest amount of accumulated wins. It is little unusual, that he has only chance in the derby. But you can’t have every year the top one. His colt is called Newbar Lonhro. In his 2yo career, he collected couple of nice spots from bargain stakes races. In this march, he won bargain allowance over 9F. This Bargie day derby could be a small hint about distance abilities of today’s runners. If it would be, Newbar Lonhro would have a quite a decent chance to repeat good result in the derby. On the other hand, the race was quite slow, which was bit confusing. In his last start, he finished 5th in Ozark, but more than 8 lengths behind the winner. From my point of view, Newbar Lonhro could handle the distance, but not as fast as winner should do.

6/1
12 – LIBRI PROHIBITI (LYCIUS x OCEAN CREST x ASSERT)

To make race even more miscellaneous, let’s look if there is any filly trying luck against colts. Oh, yes, here she is. And she is mine, what a coincidence :). Libri Prohibiti tried luck as a 2yo against fillies, but always faced those, who were more matured than she was. This february, when she finished nicely 2nd in 9F allowance against fillies, I decided not to go usual way for fillies and go down to 7.5F in Ozark Diamond (Bargain oaks trial), but challenge colts instead. That resulted in quite surprising win The Ozark Derby, which should give her role of favourite in the derby. I am not sure, if she can repeat that great result against colts again, but I hope she won’t have troubles with distance and will fight bravely. I think, she will be there somewhere.

5/1
1 – ANOTHER COMPLIMENT (OUTFLANKER x FIVE STAR DAY x R C INDY GO)

With big and tough experiences comes Another Compliment to the derby. Gowans’ colt won the main 2yo bargain event on dirt, Charlie’s Tiger Juvenile, part of Bargain Bowl, and has to be taken very seriously. In january, he looked to continue his improvement, so Gowans decided to do a big step and try him in graded company in Risen Star Stakes (G3). But his result wasn’t really great, so the decision came to go back competing with other bargain horses. It somehow seems, that his graded trip took him a lot of strength. So in the Ozark derby, Another Compliment finished 7th with, showing a bit disappointment. I think, he can find his good mood again, but I’m not sure if it will be here. It is difficult to answer, if can make the distance. It can be also possible, that he is kind of horse, who matured early, bot won’t improve a lot during his 3yo career. This start will tell us more.

3/1
2 – ONE HITT WONDER (MACLEAN’S MUSIC x INTENSE FOCUS x FRED ASTAIRE)

And finally F Gossett, one of the best jockeys in sim, rider of legendary Horseshoe Bay and others…comes to sit on Lgbost’s One Hitt Wonder. Colt was quite successful in his 2yo career, resulting in victory in bbrs Ginger Ale, as well as 2nd spot behind Another Compliment in BB Charlie’s Tiger Juvenile. He is gradually getting better in speed marks, which ended so far with 102 in the Ozark Derby, where he almost catched Libri Prohibiti. He is strong finishman, which is great style for routes like derby. On the other hand, there are also some doubts about stamina in him. In march, he was 3rd behind Newbar Lonhro..in that peculiar allowance, we were talking about. May be, that just wasn’t his day, but we can’t be 100%. Still, this is one of the horses, we should pay the biggest attention.
Ok, that was lot of information. Let’s do short analysis..and let a history help us…

What can history teach us?

As was mentioned in the beginning of this article. This is a big day for Bargain racing. 10th edition is a lot to celebrate. We talked lot about distance, about Ozark derby as the main trial, we have horses here, who have done the best results on turf so far, we have filly, who tries to steal the victory from colts. I checked the table of previous winners of derby and found some interesting points. Look at it with me:

	1st	In Ozark	2nd	3rd	Ozark winner	In Derby
2013	Karaka Stutz	1st	Tomato Gravy	Shea Inspired	Karaka Stutz	1st	result
2012	Otara Castle	dns	Five Demon	Vision of Charlie	Can’t Be Worse	4th	result
2011	You Me And Them	dns	Ultimate Betrayal	African Porcupine	True New Yorker	8th	result
2010	Mimbo Hill	dns	Textbook Case	Ct’s Rocket	Textbook Case	2nd	result
2009	Shoeless Greek	dns	Slewpent	Box Top	Psytexx	4th	result
2008	Its Out	2nd	Rugs To Roaches	Solar Deity	Rugs To Roaches	2nd	result
2007	Silver Clouds	—	Empire of Damascus	William Thomas	—	—	result
2006	Dodge The Vicar	—	I Have No Idea	Crazy Red Snapper	—	—	result
2005	Strike’em Slew	—	Green Lanterns	Mc Rhythm N Bluez	—	—	result

Ozark winners in derby

For long six years The 8.5F Ozark is main test for bargain derby. Usually, Ozark winner is top one pick for the derby. Nevertheless, last year winner Karaka Stutz was first and only winner of both these races. Textbook Case in 2010 as well as Rugs to Roaches in 2008 were able to finish 2nd. Other horses didn’t get themselves to top three. So, this is not particularly good result for Ozark winners.

So who wins the derby?

Interesting fact is that from last six years, four winners hadn’t participate in Ozark. Either, their owners had bigger ambitions and let their horses run in regular stakes and graded races or they changed from turf to dirt at the right time. In 2008, Ozark and Derby winner switched their positions.

Fillies in the derby

Since 2005, only six fillies decided to face the boys instead of having better chance against other girls. Their success rate is unusually high. In 2006 Dodge the Vicar and in 2011 You Me And Them were able to reward their owner’s courage. Both these fillies were extraordinary and could compete also on regular stakes level. Anyway, these are proofs of possibility to win the derby with filly.

Turf horses in derby

As it was also mentioned in this review, there is couple of horses, who have so far competed only on turf or showed their best on turf. Derby is a magical word since that historical moment, when those two gentlemen did their legendary coin toss. And it is understandable that trainers don’t want to miss any chance for success in the race. So, even if horse looks to be stronger on turf, they want to try it here…at least once. Funny thing, is that it happened twice in the history of bargain derby – turf horse successed. They later returned to their surface, but no one can take them victories in derby. In 2009, Shoeless Greek won by a head with no previous dirt experience. In 2010 Knightmare’s Mimbo Hill won with ease. That’s why I’m so curious what he is able to done with Slippery Truth.

There could be much more aspects and points of view, feel free to discuss them.

Resume

I am thinking, if this history could be someone helpful for giving you my personal guess. I accept the role of co-favourite for Libri Prohibiti, despite the poor statistics of Ozark winners in Derby. Anyway, I believe One Hitt Wonder is still very strong opponent and will be tough fight with him again. I somehow feel Open to Alumni is the one, we should watch and be afraid of. He could be as well the one, who will laugh in the end. And of course don’t underestimate Slippery Truth and his first dirt attempt. I see too many horses to fight for 5th money, so enough guessing. Let’s look how it will be for real.
Thanks for reading the preview. I had just a short time to write, many many thoughts in my head..but still strong desire to remind this great event. Good luck to all participants of bargain derby and nice 9.5F for all others, who are going to watch it. And if you believe you are able to breed something better with less than 120 points or credits, feel free to do it and join the bargain bred racing series ;).