Stars Depart Earth for the Planets
With four weeks to go until the Bluegrass Derby, the festive atmosphere is starting to make itself noticed around the grounds and grandstands of the home of America’s premier 3 yo race. Preparations are well under way for the big day the first Saturday of May, but until then the racing continues. This weekend we have a smallish field of 8 lining up to depart for the other planets and stardom. With $150,000 going to the winner of the un-named Grade II Stakes over 11 Furlongs the starters will all be looking to blast off across the solar system in a quest to put a space between themselves and the rest of the field.
No 1. OBISPO TOWN 9/2 – Kingmambo x Nijinsky II x Kris S.
Trainer: Socalman
After beginning 2006 with an impressive win over 10 furlongs in the Mookies Horn Special Stakes Socalman decided to take on the Sim Elite in the Equinics then the Grade I Sand Castle Classic, unfortunately Obispo Town didn’t show the ability needed to compete at such a lofty level. Drops sharply in class here and he showed plenty of form over this distance in 2005. Runs his best races from well back, and if allowed to settle towards the rear, the small field will suit his fast charging finishing style.
No 2. ELKANO (GB) 10/1 – Beat Hollow (GB) x Darshaan (Eng) x Habitat
Trainer: Zalamy
Has been mixing his distances recently in ungraded Stakes class, moving up in class here, but not without some chance in this soft and short Grade II field. His best races have been when allowed to settle just off the pace, and has shown ability at times to post decent speeds. Prefer his chances to bring home a minor check rather than the main prize.
No 3. Macho Niner 5/2 – Macho Uno x Pulpit x Forty Niner
Trainer: Louisville
The pre-post favorite, and a trainer named Louisville racing in Kentucky, will attract a lot of the omen punters money. But that isn’t the only reason to keep Macho Niner safe when deciding where to place your hard earned $$$. Other than a very forgetable run in the Equinics his form this year has been quite solid, and his win in the Grade II Pennsylvannia Power Stakes 2 starts back over 10 furlongs was 1st class. Will porobably vie for the early lead and if gets his own way upfront will prove very difficult to run down.
No 4. Badge of Courage – 17/1 Saddler’s Wells x Gone West x Kris S.
Trainer: Super8
Has shown a glimpse of form recently in allowance class but not enough in this writer’s opinion to warrant a jump into ungraded Stakes let alone Graded company. Rank outsider of the field in pre-post betting and rightfully so. Maybe he has been sent to Kentucky to test the track for the Super stables attack on the “Roses” next month.
No 5. Royal Forty Indy 9/2 – Royal Academy x A.P. Indy x Forty Niner
Trainer: Julie
Another horse that has been mixing distances in recent starts, after running 2 miles in the Equinics and fading badly down the stretch was dropped back to 9.5 furlongs in the ungraded Fat Free Denny Special Stake and won handily with an impressive 1:54.2 and 108 sp. Can lead or stalk from just off the pace, with his best results being when ridden back a little. If can take a sit behind the leader, will take a lot of beating.
No 6. Barb’s Adventure 7/2 – Palace Music x Al Hattab x Arctic Tern
Trainer: Sprintbarn
Most consistant of all the runners, having won 4 and hitting the board 3 times in his last 8 starts, the only blemish (if you can call it that) was his last start 4th in the Grade I California Handicap. Not only have his results been consistant but so have his times. His win 2 starts back in the Irish Grade II Carden Special over 12 furlongs is good form for this race. My selection to continue his good form and add another graded win to his impressive resume.
No 7. Lara’s Saintly 7/1 – Wavering Monarch x Northern Baby x Plum Bold
Trainer: Larastable
Nice win after a lengthy break from racing last start in the ungraded St. Niner Stake going wire to wire over 10.5 furlongs. A very puzzling proposition in this field, on his day can take the lead and no-one can catch him as evidenced in his win over 2 miles in the Grade 1 Queen Victoria Cup last year, then at other times can fade out badly as shown in 2 of his runs between the fore mentioned wins. The X factor in this race and definitely worth some thought, although my money won’t be on him.
No 8. Geodesic Quark 6/1 – Exploit x Beau Genius x Alydar
Trainer: Derbyrun
Another one for the omen punters but his recent form seems to have slipped since his 1st up 2006 win over this distance in the ungraded Omaha Bunker (IRE) Memorial Stake with a 106 sp. Was dropped back in distance for his last 2 starts including a failure in allowance class over 9 furlongs. If can do his best will be right in this race, but personally I would rather see a sign of his returning to better form before he gets any of my money on his back.
Overall I would say 7 of the 8 runners have a realistic chance of winning on Saturday, so it should be a close and hard fought race even though it isn’t a full field.
But I have to put my money down somewhere so my selections are:
1. No 6 Barb’s Adventure
2. No 5 Royal Forty Indy
3. No 1. Obispo Town
Good luck and good punting.