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California Derby
Grade I
A mile and one eighth
Fast Dirt
$750,000
All horses, 3 years old
California – Today we have 14 enormously talented 3 year old colts and fillies, running in what arguably is the most important sim Bluegrass Derby prep. 2 previous Califnornia Derby victors have gone on from a win in this race to win the Bluegrass Derby in their very next start. They are the legendary Tower Storm and Granhee, who’s Empire Maker son happens to be making his career debut at this track today in the 11th race!
This field is loaded and has a little bit of everything. We have both 2005 Breeders Bowl Juvenile dirt winners represented here in Eclipse winner Half a World Away and the Breeders Bowl filly winner Pro Dubai. We also have the budding superstar colts Alastor, So Slew Me and Toxicsuperfreakout. And yes, we have what could perhaps be the most talented 3 year old filly on the dirt in the entire sim, and she is Specially Devilish. There’s many, many other great ones here, most of which can win, so let’s get down to it and introduce them all in post position order!
1) Heaven’s Door
8/1
Trainer – SUPER26
Mineshaft x Fappiano x Buckpasser
Heaven’s Door is one of the many stars from the loaded arsenal of the super stables. They sure know how to breed them stakes winners!
Heaven’s Door is a 3X stakes winner, but has yet to reach the winner’s circle in a graded event. Despite that, he currently has his foot nudged in the Bluegrass Derby starting gate door, just barely, thanks to 3 graded stakes placings, highlighted by a very nice race to score third place in the Breeders Bowl. He will need more points to make the big day, so like Alastor, a third place will probably secure the Derby spot for him.
Heaven’s Door has had a bit of mixed results going 9 furlongs, but I like him here. He is bred for 9 furlongs more than most of his opponents today, and these things usually come through eventually. There’s no BB sprint winner at the top of his pedigree! 🙂 He has his work cut out for him against this gigantic field, but I think he has the goods to do some damage. Decent chance to win – good chance to hit the board.
2) Sky Cat Ted
29/1
Trainer – TEMPSTABLE
Karensky x Hannibal Cat x Gone West
Sky Cat Ted is the 29/1 longshot in this field and boy does he have his work cut out for him. He is a stakes winner from 2 races ago while running a mile, but came back from that and had a very tough time of it going 9 furlongs in the G2 Arkansas Juvenile.
Hmm why is a 3YO only race called the Arkansas JUVENILE now that I think of it? Anyway, he lost by double digit lengths and finished 13th of 14 runners. Perhaps there was a training goof to explain this – that stuff happens from time to time. If not then this horse is in trouble. But hey, at least he can say he ran in the same race as both BB Juvenile winners and the probable eventual Bluegrass Derby winner, eh?
3) Half a World Away
5/1
Trainer – FOXVBULLET
Belong to Me x Gone West x Verbatim
What can you say about this colt? He’s a Breeders Bowl Champion. He’s an Eclipse champion. He’s a 5X graded stakes winner. Oh yeah and he’s also a millionaire this early in his career. Half a World Away is a superstar who we hopefully will have the pleasure of watching race for years to come. His graded wins came in the G3 Early Morning Special, the G3 Montana Futurity, the G2 Camel Juvenile, the G1 Breeders Bowl Juvenile, and his crushing 4 1/2 length win in the G3 Silver Fence derby to start his sophomore campaign out in fine style!
All these wonderful things having been said – there are kinks in the armor, at least for this race. In his last 2 races since he has stretched out beyond 8.5 furlongs, Half a World Away has failed to hit the board in both of those races, though he ran very respectable in both races and faced killer fields in each of them. Perhaps he is a miler. Or maybe not and he will fire huge today? Regardless, one thing there is no doubt about is that he is the people’s horse. This writer has noticed more Half a World Away shirts and caps today than for all of the other contestants combined. It reminds me of the Smarty Jones phenomenon from 2 years ago!
4) Ace King Suited
8/1
Trainer – BURN2SHINE
Golden Missle x Unbridled’s Song x Danzig Connection
Ace King Suited is a lightly raced horse, with only 6 starts to his credit before hitting the gate today. Don’t let the relative inexperience sway you – he can win this race. He has run 2 consecutive corkers and can only get better from this point on. After just missing 2 races back in the G3 LordPye’s EWC Tipping Stakes by a 1/2 length, he scored a very easy stakes win LTO and nailed a 99 SF.
Ace King Suited is in the unenviable position of needing a win and no less if he is to make the Bluegrass Derby field, unless his owner were to run back on 2 weeks rest and then again on 2 weeks rest in the BG Derby should he then qualify. He loved 9 furlongs in his first try last time out and has a great chance to score a win today!
5) So Slew Me
7/1
Trainer – BABYFARMS
Belong to Me x Seattle Slew x Storm Cat
Here we have our second entry in this race from Belong to Me, the beautiful son of the late and great legend, Danzig. So Slew Me won the Grade 3 Pre Patch Juvenile at Kentucky back in August. He has not won a graded event since then, but don’t let that fool you. This horse is hot and very deadly in this spot.
So Slew Me comes in to this race off a 2nd place G2 Lousiana Derby finish, where he only lost to today’s likely horse to beat, DARYLCAL’s Toxicsuperfreakout. So Slew Me’s times have been very fast in his past 3 races, and if that trend continues, and he proves to embrace the extra half panel, then he may bring his owner the winner’s share of today’s $750,000 prize!
6) Pro Dubai
15/1
Trainer – CAPSIZED
E Dubai X Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector
Perhaps this is our most likely horse to finish in last place this week. Pro Dubai is the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly Champion, and won that race in the second fastest time ever for that race. Coming out of that race she ran two subpar races, missing the board both times, and thus handed the Eclipse award to No Apagues La Laz of super stable fame. Pro Dubai was given 11 weeks off after her last subpar race, and is sharp and hopefully ready to fire. If she is going to contend here she needs to not only run the race of her life, but improve upon that SF by A LOT.
7) Bearly Wanted
11/1
Trainer – WILKO
Deputy Commander x Seeking the Gold x D’Accord
Bearly Wanted enters this race off an impressive late run in the Florida Derby, where he finished 3rd and just missed 2nd place. The first 6 races of his career showed little in the way of graded stakes potential, but that has changed and changed fast since then. In his last 4 races he has topped the 90 SF mark every time, and his best was his lone 9 furlong attaempt in the Florida Derby, where he earned a nice 97 speed figure. He will fetch a decent price, and with his rapid improvement and him seemingly wanting more ground, he could be a sleeper. He needs a top 2 finish to make the big race in 4 weeks. He might be a decent Belmont horse.
8) Wonderboy Edge
20/1
Trainer – WONDER5
Sadler’s Wells x Rainbow Quest x Nureyev
Wonderboy Edge finished 2nd in the G2 You’re 18 Right stakes in his last race, garnering a somewhat slow 88 SF. It’s hard to know exactly what to get out of that race. On the surface it looks really slow for a G2, but at the same time the track was off and almost all of the field saw sharply reduced speed figures that day. Something funky may of been up with the track that day?
There’s no doubt Wonderboy Edge wants more and more ground every start. He might even be a good English derby prospect if given the chance or maybe a good Belmont horse. He won a 9.5 furlong stakes on turf 2 races ago, before his 2nd place 9.5 furlong G2 dirt finish LTO. He may look like one of the longshots if you compare to his competitiors SF’s, but I don’t expect a bottom of the pack finish. His stamina should keep him in respectable contention, with much of his competiton today not being bred for today’s 9 furlong distance. The question is if his talent can get a jolt today. If it somehow can, then he could blow the toteboard!
9) Empire Statement
18/1
Trainer – SUPER11
Empire Maker x Danehill x Riverman
It’s interesting seeing this entry along with the other super entry, Heaven’s Door. Those 2 horses both led to one copy breeding by me and one near copy breeding for another horse by me, thanks to AFC’s tips and advice.
Empire Statement is up against it here. He has shown conflicting signals about what distance he wants. In his first 9 furlong try he ran very respectable, coming in a very 3rd in a stakes race with a 91 SF. After dropping back to 8.5 furlongs for one race, he jumped back up to a career long 9.5 furlongs in the You’re 18 Right? Stakes, and failed miserably. Perhaps it was the off track that caused his last race’s debacle, and if so he could be a storng contender here. It’s hard to dismiss this horse, if for no other treason than for his breeding. He is bred for this distance more than most in this race.
Empire Statement finished 2nd behind Toxicsuperfreakout 2 races ago in the G2 Sunny Prospector Stakes held in Florida, on Equinics week. If he can return to that form and maybe find a bit more in the tank, there could be some high paying exotics.
10) Worst Day Ever
16/1
Trainer – LENNY16
Kingmambo x Sadler’s Wells x Secretariat
Worst Day Ever apparently was named with the future in mind, because the breeder apparently was forseeing the Chicago Bears defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2007 Super Bowl! The score will be 356-3 in favor of Da Bears!
Worst Day Ever’s career got off to a bit of a rocky start, but he then exploded 3 races ago and then in his followup from there. He scored a dominating 3 1/2 length win in the GR Simsters resident restricted race, and then followed it up with a very nice win in the Roofie Colada Special in Baltimore, which is an awesome banner in this writer’s opinion!
Unfortunately things went a bit sour for Worst Day Ever in his last race, the Florida Derby. Worst Day Ever finished a well beaten 9th place and was never a factor in the race. The good news for supporters of Worst Day Ever is that it has been reported that blinkers are being added for this race, so he may get back in the game today. If so the chance is certainly there! 🙂
11) Alastor
5/1
Trainer – MARINIA
Squirtle Squirt x Hennessy x Mr. Prospector
Alastor is the current owner of the highest speed figure of any 3 year old from this crop, with his 107 SF in his last race. That topped the previous high SF holder, Creepshow, who has been regularly annihilating his opponents on the lawn.
Alastor’s 107 SF came only 2 weeks ago at this very track, in the Grade 2 Sleepy Fan Stakes. The owner is gambling that the horse will not bounce off such a monster race and in such a short period of rest. This horse may need a few more stakes points to make the Bluegrass Derby field. A 3rd place finish or better will surely lock up that spot for owner Marinia. This horse is deadly here. If he is ready to run his race, and can continue to overcome his sprint-like pedigree, watch out! Huge contender – but the short rest worries me a bit.
12) Toxicsuperfreakout
7/1
Trainer – DARYLCAL
Orientate x Thunder Gulch x Sword Dance(IRE)
Toxicsuperfreakout comes in to this race on a 3 race graded winning streak. The last of those 3 graded wins was in the G2 Lousiana Derby, where he ran a faster race than the winners of the other 3 graded races that day, including the Florida Derby victor Rhibus.
This horse has absolutely exploded in these last 3 races, after a so so first 9 races in his career. That could spell doom for his competition today. If he continues to improve at this rapid rate, there is very little that will be able to touch him. He comes in nicely rested from his last race 4 weeks ago.
The two potential stumbling blocks this afternoon for Toxicsuperfreakout are his breeding and outside post draw. He has a lot of stamina on his dam side, but his sire is all sprinting with Breeders Cup Sprint winner Orientate. Getting 8.5 and getting 9 furlongs can be world’s apart many a times. If he can handle 9 furlongs, and overcome his poor post draw, he very well could head in to the big derby with a 4 graded race winning streak .
13) John Butler
17/1
Trainer – QUIGGY2
Hanging Road x Encosta De Lago(AUS) x Minstrel Glory
This entry takes the cake for the cheapest breeding in this race. Ok him or Sky Cat Ted I should say. Kudos to the owner and breeder of this horse, because getting a mutliple graded placed horse out of a somewhat obscure pedigree can often prove to be a herculian task.
John Butler comes out of the You’re 18 Right? Stakes that I spoke of above. It’s very possible John Butler simply doesn’t like the off going, because he has only a single show from 3 starts on off tracks. The good news for him today is that we have a fast track to work with, so that is a non issue today. The oddsmakers may not like this horse’s chances, but I think the chance to explode is there. He ran a supur 98 Sf two races ago, and there’s no reason to think he can not move forward from that now that he’s off the wet stuff. If I were to do a Budweiser longshot, this horse would be the choice!
14) Specially Devilish
9/1
Trainer – ETERNITY
Elusive Quality x Devil’s Bag x Graustark
The filly Specially Devilish comes off what probably is the most impressive performance by a filly in her class this year. She won the 9 furlong G2 Florida Oaks by 3 dominating and very easy lengths over a slew of top fillies, including Eclipse champion No Apagues La Luz, A.P. Sadler and Casa Bonita.
Specially Devilish ran a 101 in her last win at this distance. That makes her as good as anything in this race. A few others may of run faster, but not at 9 furlongs. Specially Devilish’s big question is how will she handle the boys? Many fillies run less than their best against colts, some hold their own, and a few special ones even bring up their game to a new level. If she falls in either of the 2 latter categories, then she has a HUGE chance to win here. Specially Devilish will have a bordeline chance at making the Bluegrass Oaks field if she finishes 3rd today. A top 2 finish locks up her Oaks spot. She was going to be my pick to win, until I saw she drew the far outside post. So I’ll go with 2nd place instead, and a trip to the Bluegrass Oaks for this very special filly!
The picks – Picking horses in this race is like grabbing straws with a blindfold on after Ledwith filled you up scotch for 7 or 8 hours. I can make my best guess, but the likely result is me making a fool of myself once again 🙂
This race is loaded from top to bottom, and I think all of them at least have a chance, with most of them having a very respectable chance to win. Kudos to sim players for bringing such a loaded field to this fine and important race.
1 – Ace King Suited
2 – Specially Devilish
3 – Toxicsuperfreakout
Bud longshot – John Butler
Good luck to all entrants!