Llama llama llama!
It’s a long trip from the States to Malaysia, but the contenders in the Grade III Llama Enforcer Stakes hopped on planes to show up on Saturday to race seven furlongs on the fast main track for a $125,000 prize. It looks like a closely-matched field, with the favorite going off at 5/1 and only four of the twelve starters at double digit odds.
But someone has to be tops on the morning line. In the Llama Enforcer that horse is econ‘s Red Vise (Victory Gallop), the second foal and second winner of a hard-knocking High Yield mare. ‘Red was a stakes winner at two and opened his three-year-old season with a strong rally for third in a six-furlong Equinics race. Last out, he won an open allowance going seven panels with a sturdy 98 speed rating and will likely look to stalk and pounce again on Saturday.
Four horses will share the second choice honors, beginning with Terrordega (Dixieland Band), four out from the rail. This well-bred colt (out of an AP Indy he-mare) lacks the favorite’s early foot: Terrordega’s usual style is to wait well back early and make a long grinding run. It’s served him well in the past. He won the seven-furlong Grade I Hoserhead Juvenile at two and made a powerful run at the Grade I G.S.R. Diamond. He loses some of his kick when sent past a mile and should benefit from shortening up.
Stonybrook Lake (Meadowlake) hails from zambrano barn and has greatly surpassed his maiden dam. He won a minor stakes at two and another this year, two starts back, when a free-wheeling front-running performance scored a 94 speed rating that he bettered by 2 his next time out. Jockey M. Davis is winning at just a 3% clip this year and can be expected to give this one his head right out of the gate.
Shaggy3‘s Future Dancer (Scrimshaw) is the best runner and only stakes winner thus far from his second-year sire and hoping to become his first graded winner as well. A maiden winner at first asking, ‘Dancer has banked over $100,000 and matched the favorite’s 98 in a listed stakes win two starts back. He followed that up with a fourth in the Grade III Swale Stakes at seven furlongs. That race’s winner ran out of his skin and the place horse was top filly Thnxmsslew, and I’m inclined to forgive ‘Dancer’s inability to match strides late.
Six-time winner Nebakanezer (Mt. Livermore) will be looking to make amends for lackluster races in two starts against graded company at two. He managed a win in a listed stakes to close the year and has posted three 90+ speed ratings thus far in 2006, winning a small stakes and an open allowance. A pace horse who doesn’t fold when looked in the eye, he’ll likely need to step up to win this one but his consistency puts him in with a chance to get a piece of it.
Back down towards the rail is Narayan (Forestry), second stakes winner (first graded) of two foals from a Gulch mare. (Big brother Fractal, by Pulpit, is a capable dirt sprint horse). Narayan made a huge leap in his last race, dueling early in the five and a half furlong Grade III LordPye’s EWC Tipping Stakes, shaking loose, and holding off a closer in the final strides. He’s unlikely to get a breather here and may be a bit wobbly-legged after that effort, but his best puts him in front at the wire.
Ermington Prado (Distorted Humor) will break one spot to his outside and is tied with Azroc On Chorus(Ire) as the most lightly-raced horse in the race with just four races under his belt, all this year. He won at first asking and has two shows in his last two races, both in small stakes company. He’s not seen horses of this caliber previously, but he’s gotten quite good quite quickly and wouldn’t need to move forward very much to run with ’em.
Mount St. Helens (E Dubai) goes off at 9/1 and those odds may be inflated due to an unfortunate turf attempt three starts ago. The colt, the first winner from two starters out of an Honor Grades mare, recovered well, winning an allowance for non-winners of three and then finishing second with a 97 speed rating in a seven-furlong listed stakes, beaten just a head. He’s likely to have company wrestling for the lead, but is no stranger to that and has an excuse for every poor race he’s ever run.
Zababa(Aus) (Viscount), with thirteen starts, has as much mileage under his belt as some of his classmates will at the end of the year. He’s hit the board in fully ten of those races and won two listed stakes, including his last start with a 96 speed rating. His numbers improved with the start of his three-year-old season and a return to the dirt, though his penchant for all-out front-running may be of concern.
And Nimrod’s Fortress (Chicago Six), son of a stakes-placed Avenue of Flags mare, will be hoping the turf-to-dirt manuver suits him, too. A three-time winner at two, including a listed stakes at seven furlongs, he’s struggled in three starts at three, hitting the board just once. His last year’s best puts him in the mix and his stalking style may serve him well, but he’s a bit off form these days.
Luigi Di Biagio (Lemon Drop Kid) is by one of my personal favorites and out of a winning Summer Squall mare. His maiden win came on the turf and it took another five races to notch his second, but he has finished on top of both his starts at three, nipping his rivals by a nose in each. He’s probably not quick enough to tackle these, but does have the advantage of a win over the track last out and of avoiding the shipping fatigue. With this pedigree, if he was mine, I’d stretch him out.
Rounding out the field at 27/1 is the aforementioned Azroc On Chorus(Ire) (Singspiel). One of three winners out of a Danzig mare, the corza2 trainee has only a maiden win to his name as was sixth of eight in his stakes debut last out. That was going a route of ground, but this would likely be asking too much.