Sand Castle (Distaff) In The Air

Will it be Corzaffair(IRE) to remember, or will she say Dubai to love?

As the filly-and-mare division wings its way over to Dubai for this weekend’s Grade III, $250,000 Sand Castle Distaff at ten furlongs, I guess you could say the distaff division is looking pretty chic…and Araby.  Or not.  But the pun-dits notwithstanding, it’s a strong assembled field of the fairer sex’s best.  Five of the Top 20 older fillies are present here, and they’re led by Corzaffair(IRE), who’s started off her four-year-old campaign in good fashion, with a pair of seconds in her first two 2006 starts, including the Equinics event for older fillies on dirt at this distance.  She’s joined here by Waki Notion, the filly that vanquished her in the Equinics and her main threat here, along with Grade I winners Cupid’s Dead, Estrogen and Daylight T (IRE) in a full field of fourteen older fillies starting down the road to the Breeders Bowl early.

Here’s the cast of characters:

Black Tie Dancer(IRE) [Black Tie Affair(IRE)-Appealing Gun, by Polish Precedent] gets the rail for dochobo, and she’s usually on top of her game trying marathons on grass.  She’s a multiple stakes winner going distances beyond ten furlongs on grass (ranked #46 in the turf distaff marathon division) and she’s tried dirt infrequently in her career; this trait runs in the family as her dam also never had any success on dirt.  With her dirt form missing….um, form, with but two starts, a look at her overall form should be more helpful in determining her chances.  The thing is, though, this Grade III-placed mare on grass was twelfth of nineteen in an Equinics grass race in Italy two back, and was sixth in more favorable conditions last out at about the same distance.  She should make a bid late, but with twelve other fillies here having run a speed fig of 100 at least once routing on dirt in their last eight starts, and with this talented filly only achieving that on grass, it’s difficult to make a case for her in this spot.  Watch her when she returns to grass, as this race could act as a spark to revive some flagging numbers thus far this season.

My Love Phyl [Kingmambo-My Love Buda, by Sadler’s Wells] is next up for trainer fiat, and this lightly-raced five-year-old mare has taken her own time to come around into good form.  She’s not terribly experienced against graded foes, as she was eased late last year in the Grade II King Classic and made a mild rally when fifth last out in the Grade II Help…Mike’s Fallen & Can’t Get Up Stakes.  But she does like this distance a lot, and has cleared three allowance levels running at either nine-and-a-half or ten furlongs in her fifteen starts.  She comes from off the pace as well, but the pace here is going to be pretty sharp, and she’ll need to break a 100 fig for the first time since August to stick close to some of these late.  Hers, however, is a star on the rise, and she’s been incredibly consistent, earning a check in all but one start (the Grade II where she was eased, and even there she had an excuse, as she was hurt and took over two months to come back).  Watch her blossom in summertime.

Daylight T(IRE) [Daylami(IRE) x Majestic Light] is the first of the heavy hitters for trainer highbreed.  She’s been very busy thus far, with four starts in the first quarter of ’06, and she started off on a high by winning the Grade I Fair Warning in New York.  But that was her early peak; since then, she’s been fourth in the Ouchy Nips and fifth in the Glenn, and was soundly beaten ten lengths in the Original Margarita last out.  Her numbers are fair when matched with the marquee names, and her preference to sit pretty close to the pace should work in her favor among these.  She’s been pretty inconsistent since last fall, though, with every other race being a misadventure and no two starts alike.  She’s now a Grade I winner, and the #11 filly in her division, but to advance to the next level, she’s going to need to get her head into every race.  Given the inconsistency, she’s now due to round back to the form that got her a win back in January.

Esprit D’Ouest [Constant Demand-Rowdy Dance, by Din’s Dancer], for trainer redwood, should give any bargain breeder hope, even though her pedigree is deceptively inexpensive.  Her dam was a reformed $35k claimer-turned-Grade I winner at this distance, and she herself started late last year for a $75k tag, while winning four in a row to date.  She’s a stakes winner at this distance, has cleared all of her allowance conditions, and she prefers to drop far behind early before charging down the stretch, which sets her up well enough here.  Now, the bad news: she’s not broken the 100 barrier since the end of 2004, and this should be a sticking point in a Grade III effort; if a filly’s going to have a shot at winning at this level, earning speed figs that have risen above the century mark is usually the most telling characteristic.  And while she has beaten some good foes in her career (including millionairess and graded winner Exclusive Bottle), beating foes in high level claimers isn’t quite the class test she should have passed already on this stage.  The conditions are right for her to show some marked improvement, but the class test casts some doubts.

Sydonia [Runaway Groom-Princess Mad, by Sadler’s Wells] reprersents gonzo3, and this 2005 stakes winner is going to be on the lead if she has any say in the matter.  She prefers to be near the lead, and when she’s tried this distance previously, that tactic has worked for her.  She took an eight-length lead into the stretch run of a Jamaica stakes last year, and had more than enough left to hold off a short field in the win, earning a 102 speed figure.  She’s had only sixteen starts lifetime, and has flown through her allowance conditions pretty easily.  She won’t get loose on the lead in this spot, though, and though she did break 100 once, she has yet to repeat that effort.  This is a filly that is getting better as time goes on, but even though she’s shown ability at these long routes, winning twice at this distance, her tendency towards being the primary source of speed doesn’t quite compute at a much higher ability level than she’s known.  She looks at first glance to be a more scary foe turning back closer to a mile, plus there’s lots of speed here between Our Reasons Again, Corzaffair(IRE) and Estrogen, and all this makes the Grade III chances as a speed threat a lot dicier.

K’s Joan Bach [Forestry x Mill Reef] is developing very quickly for verdugote.  She’s never been worse than fourth in any of her twelve starts, and this includes two stakes wins and a near-miss in a third.  She’s plowed through all of her conditions, and has taken to the stakes regimen very easily; now, she’s prepping to take the next step towards being a star horse by trying both graded company and ten furlongs for the very first time.  She likes to come from off the pace, but won’t come from a neighboring region in the Persian Gulf to get to the front late.  Her numbers suggest that she’s got a lot of untapped potential yet to come to light, with six races earning speed figures in the triple digits, including her second 106, a career high-water mark.  The 106 from her strong win in eastern Kentucky last out is the best-last out fig in this field, and that includes Waki Notion’s 105 in her equinics win.  About the only questions are whether such strong speed figures will hold up in the rise in the level of competition, and if will there be enough of a late run facing what figures to be a rather headstrong  speed duel among at least three or four horses.  She’s #101 in the division, and faces a strong field at the right time; she’s ready for her close-up, C.B.

Darshaan Bold(IRE) [Montjeu(IRE) x Darshaan(ENG)] is an interesting case for trainer titje.  She’s a reformed $5k claimer who’s now become a graded-placed, stakes-winning filly at these middle distance routes.  Her stakes wins have both come at a mile-and-a-sixteenth, and during a stretch in the last six months of 2005, she hit the board in six of seven straight stakes races, and broke the century mark in her speed figures in six of those seven races as well.  But as 2006 dawned, she’s found herself back where she was at the end of 2004, with numbers that were well below her stakes efforts, and the results pointed this out.  She gave way and faded while eighteenth in her Equinics race in Vermont two back, and last out, in the Original Margarita, she was never much of a factor while finishing an even sixth.  While 2005 was a rather magical year for this filly, 2006 has found her drifting off a bit.  Her one try going beyond a mile-and-three-sixteenths was a starter race in which she retreated gradually over eleven furlongs; in returning to graded action, she’s going to have to recover her “A” game if she hopes to hold her own here; she’s versatile enough to head to the front, but her best bet is to hold to her recent game plan of sitting in mid-pack and coming correct late.

Our Reasons Again [Our Emblem x Cyane], for rharfbeam, was the runaway winner of the Craft Prospector last out at this distance while pressing the lead, and should be pretty close here as well, though one expects that there’ll be enough rating to make a difference.  She’s a three-time stakes winner, Grade II-placed, and has speed figs that continue to hang around the century mark this far into her career.  If she can run back to the 109 she hit about a year ago, she reckons to be a threat.  Long routes seem to be her specialty, but her #96 rating notwithstanding, she’ll need to go beyond her capabilities in listed stakes and run favorably towards her Grade II placing for a fair shot.

Corzaffair(IRE) [Black Tie Affair(IRE)-Cake Jason, by Nureyev] is the alpha female among these, at #2 in the Sim distaff route division.  She’s managed to capture a Grade I stakes in each of her first two years on the track, barely achieving that by winning the I’m Still A Sophomore Classic on New Year’s Eve for her first graded win of the 2005 campaign.  Trained by corzak, she’s started off the new year on an optimistic note, with a second in the Equinics race for classic dirt fillies and mares to Waki Notion after setting the pace most of the way, and following it up with another second in the Original Margarita last out to Publik Statement, in which she rated more effectively and led at the top of the lane before being collared.  She’s been in front at many points of call in her career, but when it came down to it in her sophomore campaign, she was caught more often than she won, with a second and four third-place finishes in graded activity, but only two Grade I victories, in each of the last two years.  She’s going to have quite a bit of company here, with a lot of pressure up front early on in this classic test.  One expects her to be first among equals here on that count, but there’s a few challengers who like to make things interesting in the stretch drive.  If she can get the lead to herself, she’ll be tough; if the pace duel is sharp enough, she may not have the edge she needs…

…because Waki Notion [Miswaki x Nijinsky II] is right next door.  Trained by looney1, she made her season debut with a solid, come-from-behind win in a Mississippi stakes, then followed it up with a smashing runaway win in the Equinics over Corzaffair(IRE).  She rallied from fifteen lengths down and ran down her quickly-fading rival to win going away by almost three lengths, and she may have the hotter hand at this stage of the campaign.  A stalwart deep threat, she’s #7 in the division, and has five graded wins on her résumé.  Her figs are impeccable, with an almost-constant string of triple-digit figures dotting her past performances since the spring of 2004, and she adores the ten furlongs of this race.  She’s got one run in her, though, and that comes with less than a half-mile remaining; she’ll be at the whim of whatever pace scenario unfold up front, and her best case scenario is to have a hotly contested speed duel with some of the other speedy fillies to wear each other out.  She’s got the hottest hand here, and perhaps one of the most consistent of any filly in the Sim at present.

Worldweary [Sunday Silence x Fappiano] operates out of the parakeet barn, and though the year doesn’t quite have three months done, this mare has five starts in her rearview mirror this year alone!  She’s spent most of the last three years racing on grass exclusively, and just came off that surface early this year, which brings us to the present.  She’s been a stakes winner four times over while routing on grass, though usually at shorter distances, and upon returning to dirt, she did bounce up to a 103 fig while winning a Texas allowance two back.  Whether she really can hang with these top flight fillies and mares at this level remains to be seen; that 103 was sandwiched between figs in the mid-90s in defeats in another allowance and a California stakes at this distance.  Her numbers are very good on grass, particularly the 110 while winning a stakes in 2003, and though they’ve faded a bit over time, maybe this is prep work for an eventual comeback on the turf?  Regardless, this is a good mare who’s stepping out with the younger set here, and will need a strong run to nab a check.

Estrogen [Sadler’s Wells-Blazing Rusty, by Peintre Celebre(IRE)] is a multi-millionairess veteran whose specialty is marathoning.  Trained by tnilsson, she’s the Greta Weitz of the Sim, with wins between eleven and thirteen furlongs as well as wins on grass and wins at middle distances.  She’s a versatile filly who can keep going from Dubai to Abu Dhabi and back again. And she likes to be running up front all the way.  Here, the concern is that a mile-and-a-quarter may be just a touch too short, and the pace much too vivid, to maintain any hold on the lead.  She’s 2-for-3 this year, both in stakes, and her last was a very impressive swim in the mud in Italy.  But even though she faced three small fields in each start, her figs stayed in the mid-90s, a trend that continues largely from her disappointing test in the Breeders Bowl Mile last fall.  She might be just getting revved up, or she might finally be slowing down just a smidge, but she’s going to have to rely on a bank account overflowing with back class for her best in a tightly bunched field of competitiveness.  Expect her to apply some early pressure, but barring a bounce upon returning to the fast Dubai surface, how much further beyond these she operates depends on the back class funds available to her this day.

Cupid’s Dead.  [Event Of The Year x Sovereign Dancer]  And then there’s the mare.  You don’t have to be as cynical about her chances, though, because this sdmf2 trainee is ranked #20 in the distaff classic division, and is closing in on a million dollars in earnings pretty quickly.  A win here crosses her over, but she’s got a few things to overcome.  Post position (breaking from #13) is just the first one.  Then there’s her recent form, which is only now beginning to come back around.  After winning the Grade I Could Be History In The Making and the restricted DPCD Distaff late in the year, she started 2006 very slowly, with an eleventh in the Grade I Fair Warning, an eleventh in a Tennessee stakes, and a swift-closing second in an allowance over jersey’s slop last out.  She’s tailed off a bit from her form this time last year, as her numbers have retreated into the 90s so far this year, and anything longer than nine furlongs has had a tendency (granted based on just one start under said conditions) to give her pause.  She’s a confirmed closer, and looks to buck recent personal history in this spot, which won’t be easy given some of the other closing dashes assembled.

Justen G [Runaway Groom x Tom Rolfe] is trained by justeng.  It’s intriguing to name a horse after one’s self.  (Ever hear of a Storm Cat juvenile who won first out named C.V. Cat?  Don’t worry…you will.  *evil grin*)  This eponymous filly is just coming around after four times finishing in the money in stakes races.  Inside of twelve starts, she’s made a name for herself going long in allowance company, with two of her three allowance wins coming over this surface, gate to wire, at nine and twelve furlongs.  This likely will be her game plan again here, or at least would be if not for the presence of some other speed types who will be also hoping to hold some sway.  The outside post should be a hindrance to that early foot, additionally.  The figs are still developmental, as they’re still broaching the century mark, but her career is nigh young, and as the distances increase, so likely will her abilities at negotiating them at a higher level.  Here, though, it’s a hill that should find tough sledding versus so many graded winners.

My selections:

1. Waki Notion
2. K’s Joan Bach
3. Corzaffair(IRE)
4. Esprit D’Ouest
5. My Love Phyl                 

Good luck, and happy racing.