Sleepy Fan Up for Grabs

A full and closely matched field is in California for the $250,000 Grade II Sleepy Fan Stakes for three year olds at mile and one sixteenth.  With 12 of the fourteen runners assigned morning line odds between 7-1 and 12-1, it should be a fun race to handicap.

Last year’s winner, Prince Murf, used the run to help qualify to run in all three legs of the Triple Jewel. 

Here is a look at this year’s field:

1. Since turning three, Alastor (Squirtle Squirt x Hennessy) switched to routes with perfect results.  He is two for two, both at today’s distance, including the Grade III Risen Star.  Even more impressive was how easily he won both races and how his speed figures have been improving since turning three and turning to routes.  Trainer Mirinia (14%) has a major chance with this one.

2. Pace handicappers will appreciate The Ironist’s (Smarty Jones x Seattle Slew) running style here.  The speedy charge from the high percentage TheOC2 (32%!) barn may be the lone speed.  He has used that style to acquire a four for eight record, including wins in two ungraded route stakes.  In his lone graded effort two back, he could not match early strides with Louisiana Derby winner Toxicsuperfreakout.  He should have no problem getting the trip he wants this time if he can hold off the late runners.

3. With over 1000 lifetime races, Maplefarms (12%) actually has been playing this game since 1970.  The lone route try for Every Thing to Me (Belong to Me x Jump Start) was last August when he finished fifth as the favorite in the Buckeye Juvenile.  He seemed not to be improving lately in sprints, so it makes sense to try routes again.  Jockey is off to a hot start in 2006.

4. The jockey for Giant Run (Giant’s Causeway x Gone West) has yet to hit the board this year.  The Surfer (22%) trainee was outfinished two back by Alastor and was a disappointing fifth last time in the seven furlong Swale Stakes.  His numbers remain competitive, however, and would be no surprise.  He is the morning line co-favorite.

5. Zip City Do Da (Zip City x Citidancer) tried graded company last time in the Louisiana Derby and the results were better than they looked.  The Chapin (7%) trainee finished sixth in a very tough field.  Lightly raced and eligible to improve.

6. Black Clown (Afleet x Gone West) is the only top twenty rated horse in the field.  Sometimes that’s not a good thing to see in a three year old this time of year – it’s more an indication that they were a good two year old than that they will be a good three year old.  Black Clown was a very good two year old for trainer Semi3 (10%), with a campaign that included four graded placings and a second in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile.  Oh for three this year, but has a couple things going for him.  His last race, a close fifth in the Grade III Gary Asher, brought a career high speed figure, and his jockey, the number one rated F Gossett, is having his best year.

7. Back from his second European trip, Gradetwo’s (28%) Breeding Empire (Empire Maker x Seattle Slew) is off to a good three year old season.  He’s been in the money in all three starts, including a win in the Grade III Thousand Islands.  He should be able to sit just behind The Ironist and should get first crack at him top of the stretch.

8. Two races back Two Twelve (Forestry x Norquestor) earned a 98 figure in winning The Teflon Don Stakes, and that’s the highest number in the race.  1stClass (15%) followed that up with a try in the Florida Derby where he just missed finishing in the front half.  He’ll need to step up off that effort, but it’s entirely possible the lightly raced colt will do just that.

9. At 24-1 Goose Storm (Mongoose x Storm Cat) is the longest shot on the board.  He is already making his 16^th lifetime starts and looking for his third win.  The Graywolf13 (12%) trainee has been struggling to crack the 80’s for his speed figures, hence the switch back to dirt.  He has one second in six stakes tries.

10. By a couple dollars Saver’s (23%) Privileged (Gone West x Danzig) leads the field in money earned per start.  All four of his wins have been in sprints, and he is the number four rated three year old sprinter. He did finish third in both of his routes – both for graded money.  Has a stalking style that should do well here.  On the downside, we prefer three year olds to have higher speed figures than they had as juveniles, and Priveleged’s best came last year.

11. Five Points (Point Given x Forty Niner) is a filly who has beaten the boys before.  Four of six lifetime, the Lenny1 (20%) trainee comes into this off a rallying win in the Grade II Los Vinegrette with a figure that is competitive with any in here.  This should be her toughest challenge yet, but would surprise no one.

12. Remember When (Unbridled’s Song x Event of the Year) has been patiently handled by Milkshaker (19%), exhausting his conditions in his four of nine lifetime record before making his stakes debut today.  Second longest shot makes for a real value play at 16-1.  He has shown the big jump in ability we love to see when a colt turns three, and while they have come in allowance company, his two recent speed figures match up with any in here.

13. Five of nine in sprints, Emington Charm (Silver Deputy x Mountain Cat) makes his route debut for Pigeon1 (17%).  He already has three stakes win and a close fourth in his lone graded try.  Silver Deputy’s progeny have generally preferred routes in the Sim.  Easily overlooked here, but that may be a mistake.

14. The Kwswps (17%) stable is closing in on its 1,000^th race.  They bring Royal Admiral (Sadler’s Wells x Storm Cat) here for his first graded try.  Very steady runner made a nice improvement in his last race, but would need another such improvement for this race.  Very rare for him to miss a check, though.

Morning Line: 4-6-1-7

Timmn’s Picks: 1-11-7-12