Equinics HOF Committee for Dirt Mares

It is with great pleasure that I preview the Equinics race for the long dirt routing fillies and mares, with this year’s edition named in honour of the HOF Committee.

The field assembled looks to be one of very high quality, including 3 of the top 4 ranked mares in the division, and many of the field coming off long winning streaks.  The pace looks a little slow, with most of the runners preferring to settle backward of midfield, so it could be a race where tactics play a big part.

Good luck to all trainers – it is a great achievement to have a runner representing your Residency.

PP1 FROZEN PERPIGNAN (IRE) (FROZEN FIRE (GER) x SAKHEE x SECRETARIAT) newmarket5 (Universal Racing Club) 14/1

Going from the inside gate, this 4yo filly is just beginning to find her best form at Allowance level, as she stretches out to the longer distances, having slowly been stepped up over the last year.  Her last start was just over a month ago over 10 furlongs against restricted Allowance company, and she proved too strong for the modest field, scoring by 2 lengths having been sent out short priced favourite.  Before that was another easy win, by a similar margin, when she settled well back in the field, and stormed home over the top to score with an SP 108.  The further rise in distance shapes as though it could suit, but that, along with the rise in class provide this promising stayer with a big test.

PP2 CARDIFF CROSS (IRE) (CAPE CROSS x FORTY NINER x ROBERTO) kentred (Empire State Racing) 6/1

The number 2 ranked mare in the sim over the long distance routes on dirt, she has the chance to try and take that title from KISS THE MOON in this race, going around for ESR.  A winner of 10 of her 20 races to date, this scratch bred 5yo comes here following a slightly disappointing performance in the Grade I The Saturday Night Girl, finishing 2nd, which is a top effort, but with an SP of 98.  Before that she was beaten over 21 lengths in the Breeders Bowl Dirt Marathon, finishing over 5 lengths behind KISS THE MOON.  Three starts back she took victory in the Grade I The Scottsdale Stayer, which topped off a hat trick of graded wins, having claimed The Saint Paul and The Long Walk home in successive starts at her previous two runs.  Is likely to take a back position and should be finishing strongly.

PP3 SADDLE SLIPPED (KY) (CANDY RIDE x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x AWESOME AGAIN) cbrady (All-Stars Racing) 9/1

Putting an 8 race win streak at risk is this 6yo mare, representing the All-Stars Racing residency, who was tested against stakes company last start and did not disappoint, keeping the run going with a 3 ¼ length win in the Shans Bird Dirt Mare Stayer over 2 miles.  Seven Allowance wins in succession preceded that, by margins ranging from 1 ½ to 9 lengths – in other words, she has not been pressed since she was defeated last April against listed stakes class when unplaced over 13 furlongs.  Before her last start break through, this class would have looked beyond her, but her form can’t be denied and she should be very competitive here.

PP4 SPLITTING ACES (AUS) (ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x SADLER’S WELLS x SAINT BALLADO) market132 (Comedy Central) 51/1

Just six starts ago, this 4yo scratch bred chestnut filly was running in maiden claimers.  After a change in stable, and five starts over 13 furlongs her new trainer has seen her string together five successive wins, by margins ranging from 1 ½  to 12 ½ lengths. Clearly relishing the extra ground, she comes here fresh from an Open Allowance demolition against a field of just 3 others, scoring by over 4 lengths and an SP 102.  Likely to press forward, she is the least credentialed runner in the field, but winning form is good form, and could show up at very big odds.

PP5 TEEOOHENNTEEOH (AUS) (HUSSON (ARG) x MEDICEAN (GB) x FANTASTIC LIGHT) bigtate05 (North West Racing Circuit)  50/1

Another who was running around in claimers only 6 starts ago, this filly has not exactly been setting the racing scene on fire since changing stables, still being winless for her new stable from 5 attempts.  Her last start was a promising result, with an SP 95 over 10 furlongs, when finishing a close 2nd in a Restricted Allowance.  Before that she was found wanting against listed stakes company, going down by almost 10 lengths, beating just one runner home in a 7 furlong sprint.  The extra distance looks to be in her favour, but against this class, she looks like she will be well tested.

PP6 SEATTLE IN SUMMER (KY) (CURLIN x SUMMER SQUALL x SEATTLE SLEW) winsalot (Minnesota Testbarn) 10/1

Recently strung together 4 wins in a row, culminating in scoring in the Grade III Victory Marathon over 14 furlongs with an SP113.  Followed that up with a 2nd place finish in the Grade II The Rocky Top Oaks, beaten by over 4 lengths, and running an SP101.  Last time out, she was dropped back in distance and was found wanting for speed over 10 furlongs in the listed, residency sponsored, The Minnesota Testbarn Matron Classic.  Back to her preferred distance here, and if she runs anywhere near up to the form she showed three starts ago in her Grade III win, she should prove very hard to beat.

PP7 WINDY EYE (MD) (LION HEARTED x FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x HALLING) deepesr14 (South African Racing Association) 87/1

The long shot of the Equinics field this year is this 4yo filly, who has only moderate form on the whole, however, looking at her record over long dirt routes, she provides a glimmer of hope at her long odds.  From her runs over distances greater than 10 furlongs, which is made up of 3 starts over 2 miles, she is undefeated, with an average winning margin of 8 ¾ lengths.  her average SP of 75 over the same races is the big concern, as her trainer seems to have found some very soft fields over the long distances.  Would be a big upset if she was able to score a Grade I win in this.

PP8 STRAVINSKY GIMLET (JPN) (TANINO GIMLET x STRAVINSKY x FORTY NINER) tenpin3 (East-West Connection) 6/1

In form mare, who is on something of a graded winning streak, having last start beaten CARDIFF CROSS on her way to victory in the Grade I The Saturday Night Girl.  Before that, she was a dominant winner of the Grade II The Radiant, with an SP 108 and a 5 length gap on the second horse.  Her first graded win came 3 starts back in The All Nighter, when she led from gate to wire for a 5 ¼ length in the Grade III event.  Has not finished worse than 2nd in her last 8 starts, and has climbed the ranks to be the 4th top rated mare in the long dirt route division.  Should take a forward position, and will be in it for a long way.  Big show.

PP9 SAMURAI ANT (KY) (FIRST SAMURAI x PLEASANT COLONY x NIJINSKY 2ND) jellybeams (Midas) 44/1

Winner of 5 of her last 7 races, this 4yo bay filly comes here fresh off a few very soft wins over 2 miles against small fields – firstly by 10 ½ lengths, and most recently, by 15 /2 lengths.  Before that was another easy win over 12 furlongs with an SP 96 over 12 furlongs, again against a field of minimum runners.  Career best SP came 4 starts ago on turf, when she was beaten 4 lengths in an Open Allowance, when she ran an SP 100. Shows a lot of promise, but hard to gauge how well she is going on exposed form.

PP10 CREEPING FLOW (KY) (TIZNOW x DANZIG x MR. PROSPECTOR) stctees (EAAA Racing) 10/1

Promising mare who has shown great potential, but has yet to put it all together on the day when sent out in the big races.  Arguably, her best result came in May 2013, when she finished 2nd in the Grade II The Turtle Bridge, beaten 3 lengths, with an SP 104.  Since then, she has raced against listed stakes company or better 4 times, with her best result being a 3rd placing.  Meanwhile, in her 3 runs in Allowance grade, she is undefeated, scoring dominant wins in each start.  Meets some seasoned graded runners here, but has to be considered at least a place chance at her best.

PP11 DESERT FLATS (ENG) (DUBAWI (IRE) x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x A.P. INDY) brightvalr (Vermont) 7/1

Beautifully bred filly who is building momentum into her first attempt against graded company here, following two listed stakes wins.  Most recently, she was far too strong in the Clever Tenant Dirt Filly Stayer over 11 furlongs, with an SP 107.  Before that it was a similar story in the Tricky N Clever Dirt Filly Special over 12 furlongs, where she scored by over 3 lengths, with an SP 105.  Coming off wins in 6 of her last 8 starts, so is in top form, and her figures suggest she will be right up to this class.  Extra distance does not shape as a problem, and should be in the finish.

PP12 MPEMBA’S EFFECT (IRE) (SEA THE STARS (IRE) x A.P. INDY x NIJINSKY 2ND) xpletives2 (Sim Hispano) 20/1

The dark horse of the field, this 5yo mare has won 9 of her last 11 starts, with most of those coming against small Allowance fields and HOT races.  Five starts ago she was victorious at the top level, in winning the Grade I The Desert Lady Stayer over 14 furlongs, with an SP 103.  She followed that up with a 4th placing in the Grade II The Turtle Bridge, managing an SP 101 over 2 miles.  Since then she has raced 3 times, for 2 HOT race wins, and a last start 2nd in an Open Allowance over 15.5 furlongs.  Would have liked to have seen her win her last start, but can’t deny she is in great form, and is proven at the class level.  Can’t dismiss.

PP13 TYPHOON TRACEY (AUS) (RED RANSOM x LAST TYCOON x AHONOORA) fitzy (Queensland) 25/1

8yo veteran of 42 races so far, with a career best SP of 100.  Most recently, she was tested in listed stakes grade, finishing 3rd, but beaten by over 19 lengths.  Before that, she won 2 in a row in Allowance races over 14 furlongs.  Firstly, by 3 ¾ lengths having led by 13 ½ lengths at the 2nd call, cruising to an easy win, and then by 5 ½ lengths, having led by over 10 lengths at the halfway mark.  Needs to show significant improvement to match it with this class, but clearly shows a liking for the 14 furlongs distance, and should be able to get an easy lead.  Not the worst.

PP14 THE END FOREVER (KY) (SMART STRIKE x MEDAGLIA D’ORO x ROCK OF GIBRALTAR) lenny12 (GR Simsters) 11/1

Up and coming 4yo filly out of the Grade I, $3 million earning he-dam, THE END BEGINS, she gets her opportunity to emulate her father’s achievements here, having passed her biggest test to date with flying colours last start.  That was a stakes win by 1 length in the Eds Valentine Lc Dirt Filly Special over 11.5 furlongs, running a career best SP 105.  Before that, she was midfield throughout and unable to make much impression on turf in the GR Simsters Filly and Mare Turf, running a respectable SP of 102.  Her first taste of stakes level success came 3 starts ago, against a modest field of 4.  A winner of 7 of her 12 starts, she looks like she is ready to take the next step, and should be prominent.

PP15 TAPIRSIM (KY) (DYNAFORMER x MEDAGLIA D’ORO x DUBAI MILLENNIUM) vineland (City Race Rhein-Main Turf Club) 13/1

Lining up for just her 5th start on dirt, having had 23 of her 30 runs on turf, and 3 on the polytrack.  Her record on dirt is 2 wins from 4 starts, with one being a HOT race, and one being her maiden win as a 2yo over 7 furlongs.  That record doesn’t give great confidence that she is racing at her most preferred conditions, but what cannot be denied is that she has the talent to be competitive in a race of this standard.  Her best result came in May 2013 when she won the listed Ks Bonveka Turf Mare Route, with an SP 111, on turf over 10.5 furlongs.  However, she has not been able to run anywhere near up to that sort of standard lately, and it would be a bit of a surprise if she was to regain her form in this.

PP 16 KISS THE MOON (JPN) (ADMIRE MOON x SUMMER SQUALL x WOODMAN) redhill4 (Blazing Saddles) 4/1

The number 1 ranked mare in the sim over the long distance routes on dirt, this scratch bred mare will go out representing blazing saddles and will be very hard to beat.  Her last 3 starts have all been at the top level. Last time out saw her manage only a midfield finish, when 4th in The Empire State Stayer, with an SP 100.  Before that, she was beaten a long way but managed a respectable 3rd place in the Breeders Bowl Dirt Marathon against the open division.  Three starts ago she was ridden perfectly to hit the line in front for a ½ length win in The Great Dane.  She was a Grade II winner at her previous start in the Big Dessert Stakes.  Has the runs on the board, is very consistent, and looks to be the one to beat in this.