Big Race Preview 2790
Race: 2790.0214
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt
The top two ranked three year olds are ready for a show down. A couple of other top three year olds have also elected to use the Florida Derby as a stepping stone to the
Half a World Away is the number one ranked runner and winner of the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile. He has been doing pretty well in his subsequent starts but is looking for another grade I win. He has been a pace setter but more recently has been held off the early pace. Rhibus finished fourth at the Breeder’s Bowl but turned the tables on Half a World in his next start winning the Eruption Handicap. Rhibus has been closing well but with the increased distance and speed up front he may find himself in no mans land early ten plus lengths off the pace.
Peacenik is the fourth ranked three year old and is fresh off a grade I win in the Equinics. He is a closer type and has extensive experience at this distance already and that could be an advantage. Ermington Pegasus also won an Equinics race and that vaulted him to the number six ranking. He is lightly with three wins from four starts. His one loss was to Peacenik.
Lockitineddie will look to upset the favorites on the front end. He has the speed of the field and if allowed to run on the lead could be dangerous. After three races in six weeks he has taken some time off and this is not a spot to be if he needs a race to be his best.
Race: 2790.0514
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt
Ab Fab is the favorite but he looks vulnerable. He is a graded winner at a mile and exploded in a graded sprint two races back but you have to worry if he is that good at this distance. He has won five of six sprints lifetime and only has two wins from five starts in routes. He finds a decent spot to see if he can handle the distance. Clan of the Cat is a deep closer that has hit the board a few times in graded races. He is on the bubble of making the Bluegrass Derby and needs to earn stakes points to solidify his position.
So Slew Me was a graded winner at two and made the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile field. Since his speed figures have been solid but he has yet to hit the board in a graded race since his big two year old win. Heaven’s Door has taken it easy since a third place finish in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile. This will be just his second race since then. His three year old debut was a winning one at the listed level. The only knock would be his speed figures which seem to be a little below the others.
Toxicsuperfreakout is fresh off a front running win in the grade II Sunny’s Prospector Stakes. He has back to back graded wins and should be one tough runner if his form holds true. Tale of Auror ran very well last time out in the Fountain of Ute finishing third after leading most of the way. Looks like the pace here will be hot.
Race: 2790.6215 Felipe Alou Cap – Grade II – $250,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt
Breeding Empire is the slightest of favorites here. He is off a pretty solid win in the grade III Thousand Island Stakes. There he stalked and pounced and that tactic is usually a good one. Kisaran won the grade II Fountain of Ute last time out and that put him into a good position to make the
Otto Empire has shown a good deal of talent in his five career starts. He won his first three races before stepping up to the graded level. There he has struggled a bit but finds a good spot here to hit the board. In Perfect Stride is a deep closer that has hit the board his last three races one a grade III. His speed figures are a little on the slow side to consider a serious win candidate but none of the others here really blow you away.
Dixie Done Gone looks very well spotted here. He is a perfect three for three and catches a fairly weak field. His speed figures are already better than the many of the favorites and could be the horse to watch.
Race: 2790.0816 You’re Eighteen Right Stakes– Grade II – $250,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and three sixteenths on the Dirt
Crafy Dixiecrat is the favorite here but has never run in a route. He has twelve career races, all sprints. He picks a good spot to test his route skills. If he can carry his speed he is in a good enough spot to maybe make some noise.
Three Sixty Five has a maiden win to his credit in four career races. He has shown some speed though with two 90+ speed figures in runner up finishes. Death Alley Driver is well spotted in his second route try to hit the board again. Last time out he got up for third in the Risen Star and his deep closing ability could put him in much the same position. Impaler is a runner that picks up the pieces. He has a third place finish in a grade I and has been consistent with his speed figures. He needs to improve to get into this race. Empire Statement has hit the board his last two times out and one was in a graded race. Again his speed figures seem a bit slow for this level but he stands to improve as much as any in here.
Race: 2790.0216
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt
The number one ranked three year old filly No Apagues La Luz leads this field. She is a deep closer and has closed very well in her races making up all kinds of ground. She has never been worse than second in her nine career starts and won her only start at this distance.
A.P. Sadler will be looking for the upset. She is in a good position to make the Bluegrass Oaks field currently ranked sixteenth. She has really started to improve her last three races and with continued improvement she could stand a chance against the favorite. Casa Bonita closed from well back last time out in the Equinics to pick up the place. Her speed figures have been improving but closing from way out of it can be risky business.
Lie to Me has shown good speed in her career. Since stepping up to the graded level in her last three starts she has only hit the board once. She will need to step it up here to get into the money. Specially Devilish made a big impression after going turf to dirt last time out. That seemed to wake her up as she responded with a very nice speed figure. She could be dangerous on the lead.
Race:2790.0515
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt
Up and coming Frost Fang looks to be the better of the three morning line favorites here. She took down the number one ranked filly last time around with a handy front running victory. Since stretching out in routes she has yet to be challenged in the lead and she has yet to be passed in a race. She could get a pace test this week.
Dixieland Deputy is a deep closer. When closing well she can really make up some ground and couple of races back when she won the grade III in just that fashion. She earned a big speed figure then and ran a solid race at the Equinics even though she was sixth. Ampuria has yet to win in five route tries. She has speed though and that speed carried her to a couple of graded placings as a two year old.
Forty Red showed some real promise placing in a couple of graded races and finishing third in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Filly. Her recent speed figures have not been top notch but she has won a stakes in there. She needs to improve to have a chance here. Espresso D’Italia is a deep, deep closer. She closed from dead last at the Equinics to get up for second. That style might put her behind the eight ball here.