Equinics Preview- Pedigree Guru – 3yo 9.5f turf open

The Equinics are my favorite Sim event, and it is not even close. In this game, there is nothing that comes close to matching the competition and camaraderie that occur during our counterpart to the Olympics. It is the only event in the Sim that has become much more than about specific horses, and instead is about how well a group of friends can come together to put forth the best reflection of their residency. I have met many of my closest friends through the Sim, and many of those people go to war with me as a member of the GR Simsters. We have finished last in the Equinics, and we have won the Equinics, but we had fun doing both, and that’s really what this is all about.

In the Pedigree Guru, seventeen 3yo colts will be coming together and attempting to run a distance that most of them have not attempted yet. There are a lot of very talented runners in this race, but many of them may be done in by the 9.5f distance. On the flip side, some horses that might not look as impressive as the others may get a boost by the added ground. It is interesting to note that there are no G1 winners in the field, which will change for one horse after the running has been completed.

I will say that I was very impressed by the overall strength of the runners in this field. Sometimes in the Equinics, there will be a vast discrepancy between the talent levels of the entrants – that is certainly not the case in this race. So without further ado, let’s take a look at the runners, going by entry points.

El Gran Haack, representing Sim Hispano and trainer Haack, is certainly the most accomplished and fastest runner in the field, with two G2 wins at a mile and a narrow loss in a G1, also at a mile – and all three of those with scorching 100+ SFs. All his races came as a 2yo, and he is one of three graded stakes winners in the field. While he is clearly the fastest horse in the field, I do have some concerns about his ability to get the 9.5f distance. He is by Frankel, who will likely excel at getting milers, and his he-mare, while being a G1 winner of nearly $3 million, ran his best race at a mile. Of course, his he-mare, Otto Haack, was also a graded winner at 9f and never even tried to run beyond that distance. However, when you combine the fact that Frankel offspring may predominantly be best as milers, and that the he-mare was best at a  mile, and that this horse is running so fast at a mile, there are some signs that this colt may find this distance a bit too long. On the other hand, he could win this race on class alone. But I would proceed cautiously with the likely favorite, a likely underlay at the windows.

Frankenbot, representing GR Simsters and trainer PadreBri, should have no problems with the distance, and in fact, it may actually be too short for him. Another son of Frankel, this colt is out of a  mare who was best at 8-9f but who has produced a G1 winner at 14f and a G2 winner at 11f. Frankenbot is no slouch himself, having won a G3 at 9f back in October, very impressive for a 3yo, and most recently running a hard charging 2nd in a G2 at 9f with a 99 SF. Most impressive about that race was that it came off two weeks rest, and he is getting a nice breather into the Equinics. This colt will relish every bit of the 9.5f distance and expect to see him charging late – certainly a top contender for the win.

Bern the Kash, representing EWC and trainer Kashbarn, absolutely exploded in his first route, blasting an 8.5f listed stakes in December by 1-1/4 lengths with a salty 106 SF. It was an absolutely massive effort for a colt that had never previously been past 6.5f. It was so fast, in fact, that it scares me about his ability to get the additional furlong. However, there is also the possibility that he is a complete freak and was just announcing that in his first route. However, the pedigree Bernardini x Danehill, suggests potential miler to me, and I will not be surprised if this horse is suited better to a flat mile than this 9.5f distance. I am very intrigued to see how he handles the distance, and worst case scenario his trainer has a top 2000 Guineas candidate if he can’t stay the 9.5f route of ground.

Chili Dog, representing NWRC and trainer Jdawg07, still only has one victory, but he has really demonstrated his class in his most recent three races, his first three routes. Most recently, he came flying late in a G2 at a mile to finish third with a 101 SF. Another positive on his side is that with a dam who had no problems getting 10f, this colt should handle the distance without a hitch. The question for him will be whether or not he is good enough to get a piece of the top three, but I do think he will be coming down the center of the track like a locomotive in the late stages.

Adam’s Buddy, representing the defending champions Blazing Saddles and trainer Magoo2912, has really picked it up a notch in his most recent two races, winning a listed 8f stakes with a 97 SF and most recently running a hard charging third in an 8.5f listed stakes with a 95 SF. It’s a pattern that I like to see with horses, and since his sire, Duke of Marmalade, was best at 10f, I think there is a very realistic chance that he steps forward with the distance increase to 9.5f. The defending champs have brought a live contender to this race, and one that may fly under the radar with the odds makers due to the loss in his recent race. Don’t dismiss his chances here.

El Silencio, representing URC and trainer Newmarket, is a very imposing son of Sea the Stars who absolutely blasted his first race at 9f, coming last time out as he won going away with a 99 SF. It was his first stakes win and was a very good indicator that he wants a run of ground to unwind his legs. When all is said and done, I have a feeling this colt may be a force to be reckoned with in the division this year, and that may very well start with an Equinics Gold. The real question for him on Saturday will come down to how classy he is at this particular time, and off his most recent race I believe the answer is “very.”

Forbidden Well, representing All-Stars Racing and trainer Tisjuliet, is a gorgeous, lightly-raced Dansili colt coming off an awesome win in an 8.5f stakes with a 99 SF. His dam was a G3 winner at a mile and his 4yo half sister is a stakes winner at 16f. So it could really go either way for him  in terms of getting the 9.5f distance. Based on all the information, I would lean towards expecting that the distance will not be a problem. However, it may be too much, too soon for this colt, asking him to pick up a G1 win in only his sixth start after just getting his first listed win. Either way, the future is very bright for this guy.

I Thought Maybe, representing Vermont and trainer Flagdown, is a very nice Smart Strike colt who took a major SF jump in his most recent race, narrowly losing in an 8.5f stakes with a 96 SF. It was a very impressive effort a sure sign that this colt is on the path to becoming a stakes winner. Since he had modest SFs before that effort, it may also demonstrate that ultimately he is going to want to run longer, and the 9.5f may be right up his alley. However, with only one win to his resume, the water may simply be a bit too deep on Saturday for this colt.

Terra Bolt, representing Queensland and trainer Sabalou, is the third and final graded winner in the field, having emerged victorious in a 7f G3 last July. Since that race he has yet to record a win, although in his last race he come home very quickly to register a 102 SF in a game defeat at 8f, finishing second to a monster in the making. A son of Warrior’s Reward, it is certainly possible that this colt will end up being best as a sprinter, but with Rainbow Quest as a DS, he might want to go much longer. If that’s the case, it’s all the more impressive he won a 7f G3 as a 2yo. My gut instinct is that the distance this weekend may be a bit long for him, but I wouldn’t be shocked with a big effort.

Mexico, representing Minnesota Testbarn and trainer Dundey, is an impressive three for four since being switched to the turf, including a win at 8.5f in his rez champs with a 96 SF. He has done nothing wrong and has a very promising future, but I have my doubts about his ability to get the 9.5f distance this weekend. His sire, Discreetly Mine, was best sprinting, his dam was best sprinting, and the dam’s best offspring maxed out at 8.5f. For those reasons, I am dubious about his chances to excel this weekend, but he has the looks of a dynamite miler.

Surf the Sea, representing Midas and trainer Davarto, is a horse who I think will need longer than this weekend’s distance in order to show his best stuff. He has been excellent in allowance company at distances up to 8.5f to this point, but his stakes tries (G1 at 8f and listed at 9.5f) have not indicated he is best in stakes at those distances. Additionally, this Sea the Stars’ dam, Surf the Turf, won the English Oaks at 12f and has produced offspring that excel up to 14f. I think this colt has a very bright future, but I think he is going to need longer distances to show that talent. That being said, if a number of his competitors this weekend find the 9.5f too grueling, it’s possible he could pick up a piece.

Tekno, representing EAAA Racing and trainer Tees, absolutely clobbered a 10.5f stakes last time out, winning by 5 lengths, albeit with a pedestrian 84 SF. He clearly only did what he to in order to win, so you can’t read much into the SF, but it also says the competition he was facing was not that strong. He faltered in his lone stakes race before that, finishing eighth in an 8.5f event. His dam was a G2 winner on the dirt at a mile, and he is her first offspring. Sired by long router Soldier Hollow, you would think that he would get some added stamina and I don’t think the 9.5f is going to be a problem for him. The issue in question still is class, as he has yet to run a big SF against a good stakes field. I’m inclined to think that he may not be quite as fast as some of these at the 9.5f distance, but I also will not be surprised if he runs a massive race.

Billerica, representing Comedy Central for Npark28002, could be any type of runner, with a record of 5 (3 2 0) and three straight wins, including a sick 101 SF to win an 8.5f listed stakes. A scratchbred son of Sea the Stars with A.P. Indy as the DS, it’s unlikely that 9.5f is going to be out of his scope. The only knock on this colt is his lack of graded experience, but he certainly seems talented enough to make that jump. There is no doubt that he will take a ton of beating at the windows and is certainly one of the top contenders.

Raw Feels, representing City Race Rhein-Main Turf Club and trainer Platero, is one of the most experienced contenders in the race, with 10 races under his belt. His best effort to this point was a competitive fourth in a G3 at 9f with a 94 SF, but he did falter in G1 company at 10f last time out. He is a very nice looking Excelebration colt but looks to be a bit outclassed this weekend.

Krossfire, representing ESR and trainer Casino, won a stakes at 8f as a 2yo but has failed to fired in his two subsequent efforts, running ninth in a G1 at 8f and a listed at 8.5f. His pedigree, by King Kamehameha, suggests he will want to run longer, but he has not demonstrated the form yet that it will take to be competitive in this weekend’s race. If he excels at 9.5f and others falter, it’s possible he could get a piece, but a lot would have to go right for him for that to occur.

Magical Realism, representing DelPenn and trainer Super1, came alive in his latest race, blasting a 10.5f stakes by three lengths with a 91 SF. He had not shown much before that effort, only mustering a second in an 8.5f allowance, and it appears the added distance clearly made a big difference in the result. That being said, it was a four horse field and the SF doesn’t match up with the best in here, so he is still in for a big challenge this weekend. His dam was graded-placed at a mile, but he clearly likes to run a bit further than that. In the end, I think he may be outclassed this weekend, but would not be surprised to see him run a big one.

On the Ridge, representing SARA and trainer Dragnil, has only a maiden win on his resume, but has run impressively in his last two starts, both stakes, including a narrow third-place finish in a listed stakes at 8f with a 94 SF. That being said, his dam was a sprinter and her best offspring were sprinters, so it looks a stretch for this colt to excel at 9.5f. He appears up against it this weekend, but it is the Equinics, and anything can happen!

Given’s Selections

Gold – I love the way El Silencio announced himself in his first race at 9f, smashing a salty listed stakes, and I think he will run them all down in the stretch this weekend to capture gold for URC.

Silver – Frankenbot ran a monster race off two weeks rest to nearly win a G3 at 9f, and with proper rest I think he is primed for a massive effort in the Equinics, and he should earn the GR Simsters some points.

Bronze – Billerica has done absolutely nothing wrong and crushed an 8.5f stakes last time out. A win from him would be no surprise but I think he may fall a bit short this weekend, still gaining points for Comedy Central.

Longshot Special – Adam’s Buddy may have received  a perfect prep for this race and there could be hidden improvement that, if he can get the distance, may result in a big effort for him and Blazing Saddles.

Best of luck to everyone in this most wonderful of Sim events!