Tough Call in Pablo Cruz

The Grade III Pablo Cruz has been a race for longshots in it seven year history – only once has it been won by favorite, and with the balance in today’s over-subscribed field, don’t be we shouldn’t be too surprised to see it happen today.  Last year’s winner, Day on the Run, went off at 24-1.

The seven furlong sprint attracted only two sprinters ranked in the top fifty, and it failed to attract many legitimate early speed contenders.  It did, however, attract fourteenth ranked Salmon Hater, the ultra sharp Scoobs Connection, here off an Equinics win, and high percentage sprinters Journeyman, Pequin Cat, and others.

Here is a look at the field:

1. With four wins and two seconds in six sprints, with over $60,000 in earnings per start, with two consecutive wins including an Equinics mile last time, with three straight speed figures over 110, Lilscoobi’s (16%) Scoobs Connection (Danzig Connection x Rubiano) appears to be the one to beat.  I feel obligated to find reasons for him not to win.  Jockey, while off to a hot 2006, has a mediocre lifetime record.  Also, prior to last race, Connection looked ordinary in his previous five graded efforts.  Those look like mighty small nits to pick.

2. Morning line favorite, the five year old Diabolical Prince (Machiavellian x Nureyev) hasn’t thrown a speed figure less than 100 since turning four.  Just missed last time in the Grade II Florida BB Sprint Championship.  All seven of the Ruffino (18%) trainee’s wins have come when he was able to sit on or just off the lead.  He should have no problem getting into a stalking position today.  Looks primed to show improvement off a fine race last time.

3. After watching L’Sal West (Gone West x L’Enjoleur) win his first stakes and his fourth race in his last five, veteran trainer Fiat (15%) decided to take the step up in class.  This is L’Sal’s 45^th start.  In his lone graded start – fourteen months ago – he faded after being prominent early.  He is very sharp and has a good chance to run his race with the way the pace sets up.

4. Seeking the Cause (Seeking the Gold x Giant’s Causeway) has six wins and eleven in the money finishes in 14 sprints.  He rallied to win the Grade III Narrowly Missed Stakes last time with a 111 speed figure.  Prior to that, the Connection (11%) trained horse was zero for six in graded stakes and not a factor in five of those.  As a three year old, he would follow every good effort with two dull ones.  Now he’s won three straight and as a five year old he is sharper and more consistent than ever.  He may have figured it out.  Jockey has started 2006 zero for 16.

5. One of the longest shots, Indyiano (A. P. Indy x Rubiano), is winless in ten stakes tries, but is running his fastest ever in his past four runs.  Leeballs (7%) hopes that he continues to get faster as he matures.  Still has a way to go.

6. Zysoviet (Soviet Star x Rubiano) has been a very steady sprinter, in the money in 12 of 16 dirt sprints, and consistently in the lower triple digits, and two back he finished just behind Salmon Hater, but he is zero for four in stakes and trainer Zyro (14%) will have to coax a lifetime best out of him to take this.

7. Top jockey J White should be able to get Salmon Hater (Deputy Commander x Storm Cat) the early lead for trainer Manager (16%), and if the four year old is ready after an eight week freshening, that could be the end of the story.  Hater has tried dirt sprint stakes six times and owns three wins and three seconds.  Finished second last time to the number one rated Casterly Rock.  Hard to argue against.

8. Journeyman (Seeking the Gold x A. P. Indy) was a Grade I winner and third choice in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile as a two year old.  Trainer Kiri (20%) has since been satisfied to keep him in allowances for the past three years, and the horse has done less work in that time than my brother in law.  (Never thought I’d say that about any breathing organism.)  Journeyman is now six years old and is making his 18^th start.  But all he does is win.  Try this: ten wins and 13 in the money finishes in 15 sprint starts, and speed figures that rival any in here.  The presumed class jump is nothing to worry about.  Beat him if you can.

9. I would love to tell you that 64-1 is a bargain on Cat Lodge (Grand Lodge x Tabasco Cat), but I can’t find a scenario for him.  Noitstabes (11%) has raced him almost as often as Journeyman has rested.  Now making his 45^th start, he has a few triple digit figures in the distant past.  He does figure to be among the early runners.

10. AJDStable (6%) barely missed having to pay a supplement fee for Kingpin Jacob (Langfuhr x Pass the Tab), just making the entry deadline by minutes.  Three of his five sprint wins came in his first races as a two year old.  After a nice but not spectacular three year old season, he seems to be improving again in his four year old season.  Last time he was closing furiously to just miss catching Diabolical Prince.  Jockey is on fire.  Keep an eye on this one.

11. Gate Keeper (Danehill x Nijinsky II) is yet another very speedy and steady sort.  The Gorgeous (26%!) trainee has been just missing in his rallies in stakes at six and six and a half furlongs, and the added half furlong may be all he needs.  Five wins, three seconds, and a third in ten dirt sprints.  Would be no surprise.

12. Holland Park (Ecton Park x Seattle Slew) finished ahead of Zysoviet in an Equinics sprint last time.  As a three year old, he did win a couple stakes at today’s distance, including the Grade III South Bronx.  TejanoRoy (18%) has trained him to six wins in 14 dirt sprints, and he appears primed to take another step up.  Can’t dismiss.

13. This might be the right distance for Pequin Cat (Tabasco Cat x Spinning World).  He’s four for seven in dirt sprints.  He has a win at the 7.5 furlong Atlanta Twilight Challenge.  The Quietly (6%) trainee’s rally fell just short in the six furlong Pablo Verces Handicap last time, and that winner went on to win another graded stakes last weekend.  This race has a history of favoring longshots.  At 14-1, he’s worth a look.

14. One last high percentage sprinter:  Allie Bally (Machiavellian x Storm Cat) is ten of 20 in dirt sprints for trainer Arning (12%).  Stakes record and recent speed figures do not inspire confidence, but jockey is off to a 22% 2006 season and does have that gaudy win percentage, so who knows?

Morning Line:  2-1-7-8

Timmn’s picks: 1-8-7-10