Mild Upset at Intercontinental GIII
The Intercontinental Mile Stakes
Grade IIIA mile on Firm Turf
$125,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old
It always gives me a thrill to be standing along the rail at Ascot. We are running down the Intercontinental Mile for three year old fillies. We’ve got some of the best in the business with several in the top 50. There are lots of possibilities so let’s take a look:
1 – LA SANTA CRUZ ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 8/1 SantaCruz3 22.7% M.Madden 0% N/A N/A 184
(ALDEBARAN x MR. PROSPECTOR x DANEHILL) This is the type of horse that can really make a race interesting. She has never run a mile but has thrown some flashy SPF’s in the low to mid 90s. That would be enough to challenge if she can do it at the longer distance. Who knows, maybe she likes to stretch it out and hasn’t even shown her best stuff yet. She has a nice 33 ranking in the sprints. We and trainer SantaCruz3 will know more after this race how all of this translates. Unfortunately, she drew Madden in the stirrups and he is still looking for his first win this year. She does like the rail though and this could help.
| 2 – ROSSA V’S CHOICE(AUS) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/1 | Corky | 7.1% | T.Foster | 0% | 71.7 | 71.7 | 1184 |
(TESTA ROSSA (AUS) x REDOUTE’S CHOICE (AUS) x TIROL(IRE)) Three races in a row on the dirt and back to the grass for this chestnut filly. She has never broken an 80 SPF yet on grass though and that doesn’t bode well in this field. Trainer Corky is looking for a huge change from his lassy and this would certainly be it if she can contend. That may be a bit of a stretch. Foster is up and looking for his first win this year. It doesn’t looke promising in this race.
| 3 – PRESSURE DROP(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | Super14 | 5.0% | S.Kicker | 4% | 89.3 | 78.0 | 60 |
(GALILEO (IRE) x IRISH RIVER(FR) x ICECAPADE) Another filly that has never broken the 90 SPF speed barrier, she needs to step it up a notch or two to compete with this crowd. She likes to hang in the middle of the crowd and may have a tough time either catching the frontrunners or keeping ahead of the late hard chargers. Trainer Super14 has had a tough start to 2006 with only one winner in 20 starts. I know he’s got to be boiling after winning nearly 23% of the time out of the same stable last year. He may need a little PRESSURE DROP too. A win here could take the pressure off.
| 4 – SKIP THE CAT | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | SlewsBack | 26.1% | A.Kotoro | 26% | 88.6 | 81.9 | 36 |
(SKIP AWAY x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR) She has finished in the top three in 10 of 13 but has yet to hit a 90 SPF. That doesn’t bode well here but she seemingly always finds a way to hit the board. Unfortuantely, two of the three she missed were in Graded races where she finished fourth. Trainer SlewsBack keeps trying her in the Gradeds and she looks like she should be able to compete but she needs to get over that speed hump to do so. This will only be her second mile and she seems to prefer sprints but we will see. Kotoro is in the irons with his magic hands, you might want to take a look at these odds.
| 5 – JACA | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | PalmIsland | 9.9% | W.Wahls | 3% | 92.8 | 87.2 | 5 |
(MT. LIVERMORE x GONE WEST x ROBERTO) One of the best in this class for the second year running. That being said, she hasn’t won in her last three but was competitive in all. Palmisland has a handle on this filly and knows what makes her tick. She likes the big races and has won on an off track. She has to wonder now if she can beat SUNSHAFT after watching her win the last two they were in together. A surprising choice for PalmIsland to put Wahls in the saddle as he has been pretty cold so far this year.
| 6 – DARK FLASH(AUS) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | DKYoung4 | 55.6% | H.Danger | 6% | 93.0 | 86.1 | 12 |
(LONHRO (AUS) x DANZIG x SEATTLE SLEW) This good looking chestnut Australian bred filly has a straight going in her past five where she has a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and a 5th. She has her a Stakes win but unfortunately she’s never been able to quite win a Graded race. She has always been competitive though even in her last which was probably her worst race for a while. You have to wonder a little if she was one of those two year old flashes that can’t quite get it done as a three year old lady. This would be a good time for trainer DKYoung4 and Jockey Danger to get her straightened around.
| 7 – PEYRAGUDES | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | Limpid | 20.8% | W.D..Bubba | 4% | 90.5 | 87.2 | 42 |
(UNBRIDLED’S SONG x EL PRADO(IRE) x ACK ACK) It makes my wonder if this horse was named for the wonderful ski resort in the Pyrenees Mountains. She has a bit of a mountain to climb here but may be up to the task. She has won six of nine, with three of those being stakes. She has won two in a row and five of six and has really done well since switching to turf five back. She seems to like the mile the best and trainer Limpid has high hopes that this race is her coming out party. The nearly white beauty loves to take the lead early and hold off all challengers. The problem here is that some of the challengers may be a bit tougher than she is used to. Big Bubba will be guiding her around the track.
| 8 – GETTIN’ IT | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | Peter12 | 23.1% | R.Williams | 20% | 90.8 | 88.7 | 18 |
(DYNAFORMER x SEATTLE SLEW x BUCKPASSER) I chose this filly in her last outing the GI Train Yard Special and she couldn’t quite pull the trigger at the end, finishing a respectable third. She may like just a bit more distance than the mile but will be competitive here as well. Her last four have yo-yoed between third to first and back again and this week would be a winner’s circle trip. Nothing would make trainer Peter12 happier. He has to have faith in Williams holding the reins.
| 9 – SUNSHAFT | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | MrBigB | 25.0% | M.Day | 13% | 98.5 | 89.1 | 3 |
(MINESHAFT x KRIS S. x STORM CAT) Eight times either first or second in ten races, she certainly knows how finish. As She loves to come from WAY back and always makes for an exciting race. Trainer MrBigB has brought this filly along just right. She had a bad stumble in the DelPenn race three back which is the only blemish on her record but since has redeemed herself with two excellent outings. She looked outstanding in winning the Panhandle Oaks and won on an off track at the Equinics Rodlolfo Baez. .She should certainly be in the mix at the end and I’m not sure she can be beat.
| 10 – NORMAN DANCER(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/1 | Misti | 6.2% | J.Daniels | 0% | 89.7 | 83.0 | 104 |
(NOVERRE (IRE) x NUREYEV x DARSHAAN(ENG)) This will be her fist time back on the track after suffering a bruised hoof four weeks ago. She struggled mightily in that race and pulled up in the stretch during the East Plus Patriot Challenge Stakes. You can bet that trainer Misti will be holding her breath all the way around until she knows that her prized filly is sound again. I expect this to be more of a tune up and don’t think she will go all out and challenge the leaders. A nice SPF will be victory enough after the last race.
| 11 – SAHARA TRICK(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/1 | Tonys | 0.0% | V.Vincent | 11% | 82.7 | 76.9 | 178 |
(DESERT KING (IRE) x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x PHONE TRICK) It’s been five races since this filly has found the winner’s circle and that was at six furlongs. She seems to like the mile but has been running lots of sprints since then. This move may help but I’m afraid that the jump up in class may not. She hasn’t broken an 80 SPF in her past two forgettable races and a change was due. Trainer Tonys isn’t having a great year so far either and hopes that this race shakes both of them out of their doldrums. Vincent in the saddle may help.
| 12 – MALINDI | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | Escapade | 43.8% | P.Harzheim | 28% | 92.7 | 89.2 | 23 |
(A.P. INDY x STORM CAT x FORTY NINER) This pretty lady with the impeccable breeding switched to turf five back and hasn’t been beat since. That includes a couple of Graded races as well. Her last outing was her first Turf mile and it was her best with a 92 SPF. She keeps getting better and the rest of the field had better watch out for this one as I think she has found her niche and wants to prove it. Escapade has an incredible win percentage and wants to keep it that way. He has the track’s best jock ready to guide this one home.
| 13 – JEN JEN DYNAMO | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | AlroMan | 11.1% | A.Adler | 7% | 91.2 | 79.9 | 63 |
(DYNAFORMER x DANZIG x HOIST THE SILVER) The biggest horse in the race has had some nice workouts lately and the whispers around the barn are that she is ready to break out and do some big things. She’s finished top three in six of seven grass outings and flashed a nice 91 SPF while finishing third in the Salsabil Mile GIII last time out. Adler knows how to ride this big lassy. She could surprise here against the higher ranked ladies.
| 14 – BENEFACTRESS(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | HornedFrog | 11.1% | J.Wesselman | 22% | 91.3 | 84.2 | 15 |
(GENEROUS(IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD x STORM CAT) In her nine races to date, she has six wins and three fourth place finishes. She wouldn’t know what to do if she showed or placed! She looked great in the Equinics on an off track coming from 15th at the top of the stretch to finish 4th. She’s actually started the new year off quite nicely with a Stakes win in the Broadside GIII before the Equinics. HornedFrog has to be happy but sure would like to get up there in the top 10 in rankings. Wesselman’s capable riding will be an asset. The outside post won’t bother her come from behind style. This might be the place she does it.
Morning Line = 9-5-12-1-14
Yoss Tipsheet = 9-1-4-12
Paz Picks = 12-9-14-5
In a race where we have eight of the top 40, you have a lot of possibilities. JACA is one of my favorites in this class but has been a bit off her game. I think she still has enough to take fourth. She is way out there in the 14th post but I think that BENEFACTRESS keeps getting better and should finish strong for third. Now we come down to decision time…It is really hard to go against SUNSHAFT but I think it is time for MALINDI . to show that she’s the real deal. If she had started out on turf, she may have the same ranking that SUNSHAFT does. I think she will have enough to get it done.
Good luck to all runners!
Paz