The Triple Crown Contenders Get Serious

This week the derby trail brings us to sunny Florida, where the horses we will be discussing in serious tones within a couple of months continue their preparations on the quest for equine immortality. Technically, this is the Florida Derby, a 9 furlong dirt race for open three year olds, carrying a purse of $750,000 and Grade 1 status. In reality it is a giant step on the road to fame. A mere step to the eventual stars, a glimmer of hope to some, and an unpleasant reality check perhaps for a few more. As expected we have a star-studded field due to face the starter, with the line-up including horses ranked 1 and 2 in the division, and 4 of the top 10 classic dirt three year olds all making an appearance.

Now to the history lesson. The Florida Derby has proven something of a jinx race for runners preparing for the Bluegrass Derby and Triple Crown. As you will see below, no horse has managed to complete the double in the seven years of these races being run. Three of the seven Bluegrass Derby winners did not contest this event, while those who did finished ITM three times, and the only other winner finished fifth. Very sobering statistics for those trainers who fail to take home a prize check this weekend.

Here are the details of the Florida Derby as a guide to the Bluegrass Derby:

1999 – Florida Derby Winner, Velvet Blush did not run in the Bluegrass Derby

            Bluegrass Derby Winner Pharrun Prospect finished 5th in the Florida Derby

2000 – Florida Derby Winner, Lynn’s Powers finished 4th in the Bluegrass Derby

            Bluegrass Derby Winner Down the Jazz finished 2nd in the Florida Derby

2001 – Florida Derby Winner, Super Champ finished 8th in the Bluegrass Derby

            Bluegrass Derby Winner Buda with the Slew did not run in the Florida Derby

2002 – Florida Derby Winner, Fusaichi Devil finished 15th in the Bluegrass Derby

            Bluegrass Derby Winner Tower Storm finished 2nd in the Florida Derby

2003 – Florida Derby Winner, Smokin Two Bs finished 17th in the Bluegrass Derby

            Bluegrass Derby Winner I Seek U did not run in the Florida Derby

2004 – Florida Derby Winner, Stormy Bluff II finished 3rd in the Bluegrass Derby

            Bluegrass Derby Winner Granhee finished 3rd in the Florida Derby

2005 – Florida Derby Winner, Fly For Buda finished 3rd in the Bluegrass Derby

            Bluegrass Derby Winner Anticosti did not run in the Florida Derby

Anyway, someone I should remember from high school once said “History is bunk”, so let’s take a look at the runners facing the starter this week:

From the inside gate will emerge Peacenik, looking to follow up on his last start Grade 1 Equinics victory. A winner of 6 of 11 and $880,000 in purses, Peacenik is the highest ranked last start winner lining up for this event. An important guide for those who follow the “recent form is the best form” philosophy. Peacenik is the only progeny of the once male multiple stakes winning horse Big N Tall (Broad Brush / Black Tie Affair) and was conceived following an appointment with Peace Rules. Raced by oaklawn66 since day one, Peacenik took a little time to get going, requiring three runs to win his maiden. From there on advancement came rapidly, with an allowance win at start number five and a stakes victory next time out. His first taste of Graded racing resulted in a sixth, then he rounded out his two year old season with stakes and Grade 2 victories. 2006 began with a close black type second, before the pinnacle so far, the Equinics success in the Qlinton Potts over 9.5 furlongs. This is his third race as a tree year old and he’ll be looking to cement his spot in the upcoming Bluegrass Derby with a big effort here. He’ll happily surrender the early advantage gained by drawing gate one, and will be able to save plenty of ground during the race, reserving his best for the home run.

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Barrier 2 is the starting position for El Corzador. Homebred by current owner / trainer thebaker2, using his well bred but poorly performed (2 from 22 and $14k) racehorse Batouttadaghetto (El Corredor / Northern Dancer), this smart son of Green Desert has well surpassed the deeds of his progenitor in just nine starts. With maiden and stakes wins on his CV, he also boasts a third in the G3 Silver Fence Derby in North California two starts back. This upcoming race presents a real challenge to El Corzador and thebaker2, as they strive to improve their Grade 1 record. On paper that record doesn’t look too flash, with a fourth in DelPenn’s Eruption Handicap, and a last start eleventh in Vermont’s Equinics George Woolfe, eight lengths behind Ermington Pegasus. Positives to be taken from those runs are the fact that El Corzador was coming home at the end of both events, and this race is a bit longer than either of them. There is some strong opposition lining up here, but he has lined up against the best before, and he won’t need much of an improvement to be right in the mix.

Half a World Away. One of the greatest achievements any celebrity can attain is to be known by just one word, and for everyone to instantly recognize that celebrity. Elvis, Madonna, Elton, Oprah and HAWA. In only ten starts this horse has already reached celebrity status, taking out the sim’s premier two year old event, the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile, on his way to being awarded last years eclipse award for 2 year old colts.  Trainer foxvbullet has been attempting to pour a little cold water on all the hype, but he is the current measuring stick, and great things are expected of him each time he ventures to the racetrack. Half a World Away joined the rest of the world when trainer foxvbullet decided his well bred male horse Whenworldscollide was not, and was never likely to, set the world on fire. With three wins on the board from 28, and no sign of being stakes material, the son of Gone West / Verbatim was shipped off to Belong to Me, via the veterinary clinic. The result did set the world alight from day one, picking up his maiden on debut and having two Graded victories by the time he’d raced four times. A minor Glitch when fifth at his first Grade 1 attempt, then Dubai’s G2 Camel Juvenile and the Breeders Bowl in consecutive starts. His opponents may take some comfort from the fact that he has been beaten in two of his last three, but all trainers and jockeys will be organizing their tactics around finding a way to beat HAWA to the wire.

Gate 4 will be occupied by Bearly Wanted. He’s another coming into the race with black type winning form, having tasted victory last start in the 8.5 furlong South for Forbes Bonanza in Mexico five weeks ago. Homebred by current owner / trainer wilko, Bearly Wanted is a son of Deputy Commander from the well bred but underperforming and ‘unowned’ mare Bearly the Laura (Seeking the Gold / D’Accord), Bearly Wanted has been to the races nine times, for three wins, a second and three thirds, including one against Graded opposition in the G3 – San Somebody Stakes two starts ago at his first run for the year. Trainer wilko has chosen a tough assignment here as an introduction to Grade 1 racing, pitching him in against the cream of the age group, but Bearly Wanted has established himself as having plenty of heart, he looks to be on the way up and he knows how to run a race right out to the line.

From stall 6 comes Park the Deputy, another smart colt making a mockery of his stable name of origin. He’s had just the four starts, winning three and third in the other. He gave a great sight last start when just run down by Peacenik and San Pelligrino in the closing stages of Vermonts Equinics Grade 1, The Clinton Potts. Having previously won a maiden and two stakes races, the jump directly to Grade 1 had a few people wondering, but slowracers had plenty of justifiable faith in her charge. He is a son of Ecton Park, from Many Flirt (Deputy Minister / Lycius). Many Flirt was a dual stakes winning, Grade 2 placed winner of 11 races from her 48 starts. In this race, Park the Deputy is one of the two likely to challenge for the early lead, so a smart jump and an easy cart across to the rail, keeping Lockitineddie outside him will probably be the tactics of jockey C.Romine. Nobody in the state is riding better than this hoop at the moment, so if he gets to dictate the race he will give Park the Deputy every possible chance.

Blue Orchid lines up in number 7. Superbly bred (Kingmambo / Sadler’s Wells / Danehill), from scratch by breeder / owner / trainer bulletwork, he’s as honest as they come, having finished on the podium in all eight starts. His two year old season resulted in two wins, two seconds and three thirds from seven starts. Given that he has as yet been unable to wire that elusive black type win, he would appear to be facing an uphill battle here, but it’s the most recent run which creates interest. Coming from the rear of the field in Nebraska’s Grade 3 Thousand Islands Stakes five weeks ago he was giving up an impossible start coming to the turn. He flew past ten horses on the way to his strong second behind Breeding Empire, and although the time was not sensational, his final sections were. bulletwork has built Blue Orchid up to this attempt at Triple Crown glory, and he looks to be working up to his best form at just the right time.

Fappaburst occupies stall 8. A talented sprinter, he has raced only once in a route event, where he finished eighth in Illinois’ Grade 2 Darling-Squash Futurity in week 2622. That failure may not have been as bad as it appears on paper, as he maintained his position throughout the event and was beaten less than six lengths. It’s very difficult to line up sprinting form when looking for positives in such a tough field, but his solid closing effort last start when third here in the Grade 2 Hutchinson Stakes four weeks ago, and his equally impressive finish when second in the Grade 1 Killer Monkey four starts back, may have been enough for sarava02 to contemplate another tilt at longer racing. You only get one chance at the Triple Crown. Fappaburst was bred from scratch by saravo02 using Coronado’s Quest / Fappiano / Buckpasser. He’s currently sitting on two wins from 9, with a couple of nice Graded ITM’s thrown in. As an unknown quantity, Fappaburst must be shown plenty of respect. He’s one who could find that, with maturity, the extra distance is just what he’s been looking for.

Lining up in stall number 8 will be Belmont Bomb. This graywolf20 trained colt lacks nothing in experience, meeting the starter for the sixteenth time this weekend. Belmont Bomb is as yet the only stakeswinning offspring of the young and value priced sire Sarava. His dam Desert Fever was an eight start maiden daughter of Stormin Fever / September Ceil, so from a bloodline perspective the task ahead looks daunting. On the track so far Belmont Bomb has three wins from his fifteen starts, the best result being a stakes win in the Crystal Serenade Cap at his twelfth and final run as a two year old. 2006 has begun on a solid note. After an ordinary run in a stakes event to start the season, he has run third of fourteen in The Thousand Island Stks – G 3, then at his most recent appearance, fourth of fourteen in The Fountain of Ute – Grade 2 at this track three weeks ago. He’s as tough as nails, and he’s been finishing his races off tidily, so the distance should be of no concern. This is a race where not a single runner is without some sort of chance.

Lockitineddie will bounce from gate # 9 and will probably try to lead. Lightly raced but extremely capable, he comes to this race from his strong all the way win in the Grade 3 Giant Slayer Classic in Denmark six weeks ago. On that occasion he covered the 8.5 furlongs in 1.42.4, returning a speed rating of 101, after jumping from the outside gate, leading easily and skipping away on the corner. The fact that a horse of the class of Rhibus was unable to close the gap speaks volumes for the heart shown by Lockitineddie in that race. That was his third win from 5 outings and clearly his most impressive. The progeny of Smarty Jones is performing exceptionally well in the sim, and this runner is among the elite of that breed, behind only Magical Merlin and Fame or Fortune in earnings. Nijinsky and Mr. Prospector make up the remainder of Lockitineddie’s pedigree, and if he continues in the vein of his most recent start, this boogie bred, owned and trained colt may well find himself vying for the headline spot on his sire’s list.

From barrier 10, Rhibus  brings both an incredibly strong form-line and astonishing breeding into this event. His gender altered immediate ancestor, Pleasant Nijinsky (Pleasant Colony / Nijinsky) was a multiple Grade 1 winning horse who earned just shy of $5 million, and a visit to Kingmambo produced Rhibus.  Perhaps unfortunately, sim legends, as in real life, are often measured by their performances in an unfairly small selection of premium events. Rhibus, at least for now, carries a slight stigma attached to a “mere” fourth in The Breeders Bowl Juvenile. Take that one run off the form page however, and five wins and two seconds from his seven other runs stacks up as well as, or better than, any other three year old currently in training. He rounded out his two year old season most impressively with a Grade1 victory in DelPenn’s Eruption Handicap, and his three year old season began solidly when he returned a triple digit speed figure when second behind Lockitineddie in The Giant Slayer – G3 in Denmark six weeks ago. gradetwo has always given Rhibus a decent spacing between his runs, and he comes into this ready to make a significant addition to the $700,000 plus which he has earned thus far. He shares the top line in a tight betting market, and will give a great sight as he endeavors to earn the leading ranking among his peers.

From barrier 11 will emerge Worst Day Ever, strangely named, as he hasn’t really had one yet. A measure of the strength of this event comes from looking at the early market. This runner is the outsider of the field, but the bookmakers are not prepared to give you any better than 17/1, and that is for a colt who comes into this undefeated in two black type starts at three years of age. A genuine blueblood, Worst Day Ever carries the blood of Kingmambo / Sadlers Wells / Secretariat. His gender altered predecessor, Harve de Grace, did not live up to his breeding as a racehorse, but lenny16 saw the possibilities and claimed him shortly before retiring him. The talent Harve de Grace was missing on the track has turned up in his only offspring. Worst Day Ever’s two year old season didn’t herald the likelihood of a serious Triple Crown contender, as he struggled in four races after winning his maiden on debut. lenny16 has found the key this year though, and Worst Day Ever has grown in stature as a three year old. His two stakes wins were both over 9.5 furlongs, so this week’s journey is of no concern and he’s the only runner in the race shooting for three in a row.

Gate 12 has been allotted to Two Twelve. A dual stakes winner, he’s been building up nicely, winning twice in black type races from his three most recent starts, while gradually increasing the distance he has been asked to cover. A scratch bred three year old carrying Forestry / Norquestor / Turn To blood, Two Twelve took three runs to achieve maiden victory, but breeder / trainer 1stclass had no hesitation in then stepping him straight up to stakes racing. A second and first in stakes races rounded out his two year old season. 2006 began with a ninth in the Grade 3 San Somebody Stakes, but the run was better than it appears on paper, with Two Twelve beaten by less than four lengths. He followed that up by beating nine opponents in New Mexico’s Teflon Don Cap four weeks ago, covering the eight and a half in 1.42.8 and returning a 98 speed figure.  This is a tough race and he’s being ridden by an out-of-form rider, but Two Twelve’s form is on the rise, he’s had a solid preparation and he’s in with a chance.

Taking his spot in stall 13 is Destiny Dance. A stakes winner of 2 from 9, he’s been mixing with some elite company, and although he hasn’t seen the winners stall in his last five, his most recent run was most encouraging. Destiny Dance is a son of Dubai Destination from the “open to everybody” mare Hard Hill (Danehill / Lyphard’s Wish), who was retired after just one run. topicountb decided to use this mare and the connections must be very happy with the result. Winning his maiden at his third start, he then backed that up next run with a black type victory in Indiana’s Their Master Bonanza. Looking to graded racing since then, Destiny Dancer has found the going a bit rough, finishing out of the money at each of his next four. It’s the last run, however, which has given the best indication that the early promise may yet be fulfilled. His strong third here in the Grade 2 Sunny’s Prospector Stakes four weeks ago, when Destiny Dance worked strongly to the line at the end of 8.5 furlongs, was enough to convince the topicountb stable that he was one worthy of setting on the road to the Triple Crown.

Drawn the outside gate we will find Ermington Pegasus. This lightly raced three year old has wasted no time in flying through the classes, reaching the highlight of Grade 1 success at just his fourth career start. It’s easy enough to recount his racing history, it all sits on the colt’s home page. Maiden Win, Stakes win, Grade 2 third and Grade 1 Equinics George Wolfe win. The sky is the limit for this pigeon3 trained colt. For the breeders, Ermington Pegasus is, to date, the most successful of the three progeny of Secret Pegasus. A daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus / Secretariat, Secret Pegasus was no champion, managing a maiden win and one stakes ITM as a two year old in a career of 33 starts, which never lived up to early promise. Sent to Night Shift, she produced the now four year old plodder Dave’s Secret, before a visit to Sky Mesa produced Ermington Pegasus. The bookmakers are keeping him very safe against this quality field, and top jockey L. Butcha has elected to accept the ride. His ‘come from the rear’ racing style will have his supporters chewing their fingernails with a couple of furlongs to go, but a storming finish will come as no surprise

The Odds Makers opinion:

            5/1 – Half a World Away, Rhibus

            8/1 – Peacenik, Ermington Pegasus

            9/1 – Lockitineddie

The Computer opinion:

            HAWA – 1

            Rhibus – 2

Peacenik – 4    

Ermington Pegasus – 6

Park the Deputy – 27