Another one comes up tough

By ITCH

There are going to be some really good fillies miss the board here at Old Waterford in Saturday’s $40,000, 6.5-furlong Forty Even Handicap.

One look at Sinoboy’s entry checker for this race lets you know how even a race this is. It drew a nearly full field of 13, and looking at the average speed figures, just about everybody is clustered between 80 and 85. Handicapping the race proves this out as all but two of the fillies have been first or second in a stakes race.

All of the good ones can’t hit the board on Saturday. There are too many of them.

Let’s start at the top:

GENNA LOO HOO qualifies first with 49 stakes points. This daughter of Rahy, the first foal of the Grade G mare THE PISTOL, has meant everything to the Marylin847 barn, which was struggling at 15 wins in 157 starts before this year. Not anymore. This year, she’s gone from a strike rate just under 10 percent to over 20 percent, at 22.7 with a big five wins from 22 starters. (Congratulations trainer. You stuck with it and it’s paying off big time.) As for the filly, she runs kind of like Dr. Seuss coming down the mountain to bring Christmas back. At first you don’t think she’s coming, but then woosh, Max, hold onto your hat. Last out, she came flying from 20th to be third in a Grade I in the 6-furlong Johnny Longdon at Vermont. That’s 17 fillies she passed in a Grade I. Impressive, to say the least. She’s won three non-graded stakes in a row, and she looks on the improve. Tremendous talent and 5-1 is a joke. Looking forward to watching the stretch run Saturday.

Local hero SWORD OF PGPG qualifies second with 30 points. This filly was winning stake races from Delaware to Ontario to Kentucky before she shipped to the Spa of the Appalachians for her last two, in which she’s finished ninth and sixth. Her stakes wins were at 7 and 7.5 furongs, and her two recent losses were at 6 and 8.5, so it’s logical we can chalk up these two losses to the wrong distance. Only problem is, Saturday’s race is at 6.5, which is not 7 or 7.5, but it’s closer. She’s a closer who is going to have to try to outkick some other late runners in here who are in better current form. She is the first of a three-part entry for Wassie.

ALLURING NINER G is the second part of that entry and the third qualifier with 28 points. This is another one who was in very good stakes form everywhere else but West Virginia, then shipped here last out and ran up the track in 10th. Wassie has won this contest twice, and leads it now for a third time, but these two fillies are hating the Mountain Oval so far. Probably that 8.5-furlong distance is what got this daughter of Forty Niner last out, as you notice three back she ran poorly on the drop to allowance going long. She should give a better account of herself Saturday as she gets back to her sprinting game.

THE MESSAGE is a filly to be liked out of the Sal2 barn, and right away we’ll send up a tip that 8-1 is silly. After all, in seven career races so far, she’s never been so bad as third! Every race she’s first or second, including the last five in stakes company, where she’s run good on turf or dirt. Unlike the first two qualifiers, she has good tactical speed. There should be no surprises on Saturday as this one makes her fifth consecutive start at the distance and sixth at the class. She’s got this game down, and is a very good bet to hit the trifecta. Make that the exacta.

Biko04’s MATAKU(IRE) is up at 13-1 despite qualifying fifth with 20 points. Like Sal2, this barn has most of its runners resting so far this year, starting only three horses in 2006. Mataku makes her first start here since 2699, and she looks the part, having been first and second in her last two, both in stakes sprints on the dirt. However, we notice the poor jockey aboard in Z. Erickson, suggesting this may be a tune up run here. We will see.

INDY AWARD BG goes in sixth qualifying spot for Bob123g out of his rgrg barn. Like his brother’s fillies, this one was going fine in stakes at other tracks before shipping here last out for a fifth-place finish in the Dawn Treader Bonanza, the 8.5 furlong race in which Alluring Niner G was 11th. A sure positive is that this filly’s stake win was at this distance, albeit over a good track, and we’re a fast surface here on Saturday. That affinity for the distance means a lot, though, and you have to give this filly a good shot based on the fact she’s won at the class and distance.

Next is puffqueen’s FLARE FOR DRAMA(IRE). This lightly-raced daughter of the Iron Horse makes only her fifth career start here. She’s shown blazing speed in her first four starts, and is the likely speed of the speed here, provided she can outfoot EZ PZ LEMONSQUEEZY and DEB’S EMPIRE, who appear to be the other two most likely to go for the front in here. They’ll have a hard time wresting the point from Flare for Drama, who has been on the lead in all four starts so far. Another thing to like about this filly is you know she loves the track, as she ran the first two races of her life here at the Spa, winning both in front-running fashion. The only bad race of her life so far came last out, when she faded to seventh and last after being challenged fairly early in a Maryland stake. The Message was in that race and finished second. That’s not good, and neither is the fact that Jocko Maloney is aboard this one, and he’s a confirmed come-from-behind jockey, and normally struggles on speedball types like this one.

The aforementioned Deb’s Empire is next, and she might be the one to get the early lead if Jocko screws it up like usual and takes back on the speed. This daughter of Empire Maker looks to me like she could be a very serious threat in this race because she ran very respectable last out when fourth in a Grade 3. Of course, that Grade 3 might not be as tough as a normal graded race, as it was run in New Mexico with only nine fillies in the race. This filly has run three bangup races at this distance and makes sense here. Elprofit1 is at the controls here, hitting a 10 percent clip so far this year.

Next we get to the third speedy filly, Ez Pz Lemonsqueezy out of the bigspruce barn. This is the first foal for Grade D mare TIKI GOD, who was a three-time stake winner routing on the dirt. By Lemon Drop Kid, this filly has been brought along patiently in allowance ranks, and then bigspruce did his job last out by finding a short field of five in Florida of all places, picking up a very nice check for the front-running score. This filly has been running easy and gets the test of her life here Saturday. Something tells me she very well may be up to it. Her mama was a runner and I don’t think bigspruce has really let this one roll yet. He’ll have to Saturday for this filly to win, and it won’t be EZ.

OK, getting down the list now to the third part of the Wassie entry, Trigger’s Girl G, who will start widest of 13. Like the other Wassie fillies, there she was, three races ago, winning a stake in California in front-running fashion. Since then, she’s shipped to the Mountain and had a rough time, setting the pace last out in the Old Compton Street before fading and getting nipped for the show money. Before that, she didn’t run much at all in the Mr. West Cap. She ran a tough race last out and comes back on two weeks’ rest, and is parked way out in post 13. Tall task for this filly.

SHE DONE GON is next out of the woodlyns stable, a Sim veteran of some 752 starts. This will be the first career stakes start for this daughter of Chief Seattle, and she prepped for it in perfect fashion, winning over this strip last out at this exact distance, drilling a conditioned allowance field at 3-5 with a nice 94 speed fig. She goes from odds on to 8-1 in here, which, even at that price, Drunken Morning Line Oddsmaker Charlie Hoop is giving the respect, mostly for that big 94 speed fig last out. She’ll be in the mix early. Her ability to handle the class jump determines whether she’s in the mix late.

Almost to the bottom now as we have STEELY EYED CAT out of the snakebit barn. This filly doesn’t qualify very high because this is only her third career start. This is one of those where you have to say, wow, she could be any kind, as she is undefeated with that come from way behind style that suggests immense talent, and ability to run longer. This is a very exicting filly for a 10 percent barn, and she’s primarily responsible for increasing the potency of the snakebite barn, especially when it comes to strike rate. (Get it? Snakebite strike rate, yo.) She starts in the two hole, right next to Genna Lou Hoo in the 1, so she’ll be able to keep her eye on the other Silky Sullivan-type in here. Tell you what. If Steely Eyed Cat can run faster down the lane than Genna Lou, snakebite is gonna know he really has something here. Even if she doesn’t, snakebite really has something here. Very exciting filly and, as they say, she could be any kind.

Jayhawkhhh has the final qualifier in DYNASILVER, who cuts back in distance in this, her fifth career start, and first-ever stakes try. This is another filly who looks to have a world of potential, no matter how she runs here Saturday. That 90 speed fig two back as a 2yo filly is outstanding. She’ll be trying to come from behind, as well, and if she can keep up with those two down at the rail, look out.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!

PS – If I was playing this race, I would play triftecta boxes with Genna Lou Hoo, The Message and the field.