Gold Forest heads betting in Lonchamp

The Light of Dayjur Challenge is this week’s regular stakes race in Longchamp. Programmed for the older females, and conducted over 7.5 furlongs on the yielding turf, it carries total prizemoney of $70,000. It brings together a talented, evenly matched field of 9 starters. An ability to perform in the wet will be a major factor.

This event carries the name of the stakeswinning Dayjur / Majestic Light mare who raced her entire career for the ba stable. She enjoyed a relatively brief racing life of just 27 starts, during which time she won 7 events and earned her owner / trainer around $167,000. Light of Dayjur raced honestly throughout her career and was as good as ever towards the end, winning 6 of 10 before a couple of sub-par efforts saw her retired at 5. Sent off for an appointment with Seeking the Gold, the breeding looks to have been fortuitous. The resultant colt, Show me the Light, has won 3 from 8 including his last 2 in succession, but has been off the scene for some 3 months now

Back to this week’s race and we have:

Drawn the inside is Gramona. This recent stakeswinner representing the rheffisimo stable is working up stylishly to her second black type victory, coming off a third and second placing in her last two under similar conditions. Gramona is a four year old homebred filly by Cat Thief from the very smart former racemare Velasquita (War Chant / Diesis). She is well on her way to emulating her dam, but still has a way to go. Velasquita won 2 stakes races, but perhaps unluckily managed podium finishes an astonishing 14 times, finishing her career just short of the half million dollar mark. Four runs back in week 2692, Gramona won the Shareto Special Stakes in Hong Kong, to cement her first stakes win, and she’s currently racing in great heart. She’s certainly in here with an undeniable chance of enhancing her current record of 6 wins from 21, with over $160,000 in the bank. She’s at 6/1 in the early markets

Ms Dixieland will jump from barrier 2 and the bigears owned and bred filly comes into the race off a strong win in The Senorita Lee stakes in week 2734. A winner of 7 from 16, including 3 black type, this filly displays a highly unusual pattern in her record. She won her first two races, and since then has twice more put consecutive wins together. A stockmarket chartist would have to declare her a certainty this weekend, as she comes into this off a last start win.  But let’s get back to fundamentals. A four year old homebred daughter of Pulpit, she’s the second foal of Amy Band, a poorly performed daughter of Dixieland Band / Drone. Amy Band may have been ordinary on the track, but as a broodmare she has few peers, with three offspring. The first two have won at Graded level, the youngest, three year old Freakish Pedro, already a stakes winner from just 6 starts. Ms Dixieland’s pinnacle so far is the G3 Blonde and Freckled Handicap, in week 2594. Her only attempt in the wet saw a strong second in a Denmark allowance. At her best she’s an undeniable chance here and the bookies are taking no risks, offering 4/1 at best.

Gate 3 sees March Madness, from the johnomally stable, line up. A daughter of Danzig from the well bred (Event of the Year / Valid Appeal) but disappointing mare Valid Neck. March Madness has already out performed mum, who managed one incredibly weak allowance win from her 14 starts, but connections have picked a tough event to re-enter the stakes game. Her previous tilt at the black type, as a 2 year old, was a useful run, and she’s been racing reasonably well recently, winning an allowance last start following 3 seconds from her previous 4. She’s not one of the more fancied runners, but she has several factors on her side. Her form line is on the up, she loves the sting out of the ground, and connections have secured the services of one of the track’s top jockeys. Do not dismiss her chances

Bux Noelle G jumps from 4. She’s a four year old daughter of Cat Thief from the Mr. Prospector / Slewdledo mare Special Prospector. The dam, a moderately performed winner of 5 from 36, has produced four offspring, three of whom have black type form, the 2 year old is as yet unraced. Bux Noelle G won 2 of her first 5 on dirt before owner / breeder buxpasser switched her to the turf, where she has proven superior. 4 wins at three years old, including two stakes wins, establish her credentials for a race like this. Her last couple of runs have been a bit below her best, but she may have been a bit unlucky 3 starts back when beaten at allowance level, despite returning a triple digit speed figure. Her performances are a tad too unpredictable to inspire confidence, but if she puts it all together on the day, she’s a genuine threat. Bux Noelle G hasn’t raced on an affected track for 12 months, and her win and fourth from 2 were both on the dirt, so she’s a bit of an unknown quantity on the wet grass. Top jockey J. Ventura has accepted the ride and she could be good betting value at 10/1

Toofasttoofurious is due to line up at number 5. This homebred daughter of Dynaformer / Soviet Star is hopefully on the comeback trail after a string of solid allowance performances. Now 5 years old, she entered sim world with a bang (perhaps too fast, too furious). After failing at her first and only run on dirt, she then strung together 7 consecutive victories at 2 and 3. Six of those were stakes events, and she looked to have the world at her doorstep. Fate stepped in and although she continued to race well, she was no longer invincible, and found winning a less regular occurrence. Trainer bexley bit the bullet and gave her a very light year at 4, confining her to just 7 starts, all bar 1 in allowances. 2 starts at 5 have seen her finish second and first in allowances, and this week could be the defining moment. Does she still have what it takes to return to the black type ranks? Can she rake up win no.14 and edge closer to that half million dollar mark?

Barrier stall 6 has been reserved for Represent, who makes her debut appearance for trainer thepontif today. Having raced her full career in the overbrooks stable, and with a stakes win just six months ago, the previous owner decided to send her round for a 50k price tag. Big mistake. thepontif had no second thoughts about parting with the 50k (she’s worth far more than that once her racing days are over). The new stable also had no fear of sending her straight back into the black type class of racing, where she is already proven. Represent is a four year old daughter of Swain / Spinning World, and although she’s yet to win in the wet, she does boast two ITM’s from three attempts. She’s the outsider of the field betting wise, but coming off a last start win, with a recent stakes victory over this trip, and ridden by a more than capable rider, there’s plenty to like. Win, lose or draw, the stable has secured itself a true bargain.

Arkansaw Diamond jumps from 7. This four year old has everything going for her at the moment. Superbly bred (Seeking the Gold / Ozark Dancer, a dual stakes winning gender altered son of Broad Brush / Northern Dancer), she put together 5 consecutive wins (4 at stakes level) before being grabbed on the line when second last start in the G3 Cootie’s Sprint at Ascot. The switch from the dirt for these last six runs has been the making of this filly, although she was more than capable on the other surface. Breeder / owner / trainer simond has this girl really flying at the moment, as she strives for stakes win no. 5 and to extend her earnings beyond the quarter of a million dollar mark. Tactics will be interesting, as the early speed should be a contest between this filly and the favourite, drawn immediately outside her. Whatever eventuates, Arkansaw Diamond will not be far away in the run and will give connections an enormous sight for their money. The track condition will not worry her in the least (3 wins and a second from 4 in the wet) and she’ll be well ridden.

In gate 8 we have the girl who will carry the fortunes of favourite bettors, the talented Touch Gold / Forest Wildcat 5 year old mare, Gold Forest.  As a three and four year old, owner ladysierra had her mixing allowance and stakes racing with great success, before settling her, hopefully permanently, into black type racing five starts ago. Unraced until 3, she’s a dual stakes winner at both 3 and 4 years of age. Overall Gold Forest boasts 10 wins from 31 starts and north of $380,000 in earnings. Most of her racing has been over slightly longer trips, but she is a black type winner over this surface and distance, having taken out the Senorita Pegasus Stakes in week 2475. She holds a perfect 2 from 2 in the wet and if she wins the battle for the early lead, she is going to prove incredibly difficult to run down. Dropping back in class here, ladysierra brings her into this race off a fighting close up fourth in the G1 Sexy Muffins Classic four weeks ago. That run was good enough for the oddsmakers, who have installed her as clearly the top selection at 5/2

 The outside stall will be occupied by the smart 5 year old sprinting mare, Undo the Charge, rated a 6/1 chance in early markets. This mare has had a chequered history, and owner / breeder? punt may be a tad fortunate to still have her in the barn. Twice placed in stakes races at two, the wheels fell off early in her 3yo old season, and she was sent to the claiming ranks. Perhaps the somewhat unfashionable breeding (Mr. Innocent / Marlin) contributed to her returning home after each start, despite winning 4 of 6 claimers. Whatever the reason, the change did her the world of good, and she comes here with a recent black type victory over this distance on the form page. Her only run this year was a close up fifth in the G3 Cootie’s Sprint behind Gold Squall and Arkansaw Diamond. As that was her third consecutive race in graded company, she should appreciate the drop in class here. Her two starts in the wet have produced one second, but the failure was against G1 company. She a strong chance in a most competitive event.

The bookies like:

            5/2 – Gold Forest

            4/1 – Ms Dixieland, Arkansaw Diamond

            6/1 – Gramona, Undo the Charge

The computer likes:

            Ms Dixieland – 31

            Arkansaw Diamond – 49

            Bux Noelle G – 104

Gramona – 130

Undo the Charge – 163