XTREMELY A FAN & BEYER BEWARE to fight out The Saturday Night Special
The Saturday Night Special Grade 1 2769.0314 to be run over 9 furlongs on firm turf here in Kentucky is going to be a race of tactics with the nubmer 1 ranked turf classic horse XREMFLY A FAN to start as favorite at 5/2 but with such horses as MONKIDLE, RED THEATRE(IRE), BEYER BEWARE and JOLIE’S SONG looking to move up the rankings will XTREMFLY A FAN be able to take out his 2nd grade 1.Let’s take a look at the form guide and see if we can find the winner.
PP1 SING PHYL SING(GB) Owner sam OPERA HOUSE(GB) X SEATTLE SLEW X DAMASCUS 9/1
This horse has not quite made the grade at stakes level so I find it very difficult to pick this fella his last start over this distance got him a speed rating of 99 but I don’t think that will get him in the money 9/1 is very short given R staples has only had 1 placing in 10 starts this season.
PP2 XTREMELY A FAN Owner jpcrazy A.P. INDY x KRIS S. x NIJINSKY II 5/2
Ranked 1 on classic turf this well bred 5 year old was picked up for only $35,000 in a claim race 5 starts back and won at grade 3 level last start. Makes me think where was I when this horse was racing a claimer? With a 109 SP rating last start he will sit just off the pace with P Cadigan on his back he be hard to run down, he is the horse to beat.
PP3 RIVER SPAY Owner enfuego GONE WEST x VAGUELY NOBLE x NASHUA 14/1
Has not won a race in the last 6 months (7 races at stakes level). So if he can’t make that grade anymore what is he doing in this field at grade 1, but the biggest supprise is that he is racing on his turf which he has never earned a penny on.I think I have more chance of winning lotto than this horse has of winning this race.
PP4 MONKIDLE Owner socalsipe TURKOMAN x THEATRICAL(IRE) x BUCKSPLASHER 10/1
The horse has run 3 placings in his last 3 starts but has not quite cracked it for a win at 10/1 he would be an outside chance of winning if B Sipe can box the favorite on the fence long enough while hoping BEYER BEWARE is not running past both of them. For mine he won’t win but he can cause an upset if everything goes his way. Place bet.
PP5 RED THEATRE(IRE) Owner phillipj MONTJEU (IRE) x RED RANSOM xTHEATRICAL(IRE)9/1
This 5 year old is comming off a great win in the The SOFT SAL Memorial-Stk over 6 furlongs with a sweeping run around the field and a speed rating of 100.This 2 time stake winner is looking to take the next step and is an outside chance if the speed is on up front and XTREMELY A FAN can’t get a run through the field,The real drawback is that jockey N Jacoby has not had a winner in 16 rides this season. Place bet only.
PP6 JOLIE’S SONG Owner catspaw BUDDHA x BELONG TO ME x JOLIE’S HALO 9/2
This 5 year old mare has been getting closer and closer in it’s last couple of runs but has found it hard to catch the leaders because there has not been much speed in the early part of the races. A winner of 2 grade 1 races she is looking to recapture old form.The extra furlong will suit and with the survices of top jockey D Sherman she will be in the finish. If the speed is on at the start look for JOLIE’S SONG to be sweeping out wide in th later stages of this race. One of the horses to beat.
PP7 SMART CANADIAN Owner chasitey72 SMART STRIKE x AFFIRMED x OLDEN TIMES 45/1
Wow I find it amazing that a horse like this is able to get into such a big race. Last start he couldn’t win a claim yet Chasitey72 has put him in a grade 1!!!! The good thing is that he won’t be any trouble he will settle last and may on;y pass 1 or 2 horses if any. Look for this 1 to be distanced.(sorry chasitey72)
PP8 VALLEY STATION Owner waybil ARCH x COZZENE x EL GRAN SENOR 14/1
Intersting horse stakes place getter as a 2yo has only had 18 starts for 4 wins. Waybil has been trying to crack a stakes victory with this horse since week 2671 but has not guite got there yet.So I think this is way to hard for this horse to win stick to the stakes races untill he can win 1.
PP9 BEYER BEWARE Owner lenny271 DAYJUR x DISTORTED HUMOR x TROY(GB) 5/1
Found some great form in the last 2 runs with 2 2nds in a row at grade 3 level with 2 very good speed ratings of 108 and 109. This 3 time stakes winner will also be another to settle back in the field looking to run home strongley. D Givins is in the sadle and what better hands could you be in. The thing that will decide his fate will be the speed which I can only see comming from SIR ROMULUS(IRE)and LORD HORNBLOWER. If it is a slow run race he won’t win if it is fast run he is my pick.
PP10 LORD HORNBLOWER Owner wemblem TOUCH GOLD x LEAR FAN x POLISH NAVY 13/1
caused upset victory and won its first ever stakes race last start at nice odds of 13/1. This is the key runner because will set the pace as he has done in his past 2 starts. Comming off some great speed ratings 102 and 103 this horse could be the big smokey of the field. Needs to steal a break at the 3 furlong pole and hope it is enough to hold out the back makers. a good outside chance at long odds.
PP11 SIR ROMULUS(IRE) Owner jberg GENEROUS(IRE) x LEAR FAN x TOM ROLFE 10/1
Comming from a victory and a 3rd in stakes compony this is another key runner.He will sit next to the leader and could prove to be an obsticle for the back makers. Expect this 4 year old colt to try and kick with LORD HORNBLOWER but I Don’t think he will be able to keep up. I think his best chance would be to try to run the other horses off there legs and try to lead from wire to wire. Place best.
PP12 CLEARANCE CLARENCE Owner vimes STORM OF INDYA x NORTHERN HAL(IRE) x ASK CLARENCE 21/1
Can’t win an allowence at the moment so I don’t know what vimes is thinking putting this horse into a grade 1. This 5yo chestnut will be settling near the back of the field and maybe a horse that will cause BEYER BEWARE a bit of trouble getting around. I would be very supprised to see this win or even run a place.No chance.
PP13 SHOOT TO KILL Owner pm2 DANZIG x LYPHARD x NIJINSKY II 82/1
This very well bred but inexperienced colt broke his maiden last start with a fine speed rating of 90. But pm2 has set him quite a task in just his 4th race with a huge step up in class it would be a boilover to see this horse win. However he has improved from a 60 to a 90 in only 3 races and I would look for him to keep improving. I think pm 2 should bring him through the grades before he steps into this company but I have a feeling he may finish ahead of a couple of others, in 1 word NO!
This is a very hard race that will depend on speed I see SIR ROMULUS(IRE)and LORD HORNBLOWER in the lead with XTREMELY A FAN, SHOOT TO KILL and MONKIDLE just behind the leaders and RED THEATRE(IRE),JOLIE’S SONG,RED and BEYER BEWARE toward the back of the field. LORD HORNBLOWER will try to take the race away from the others at the 3 furlong pole with a kick, I see XTREMELY A FAN tracking up behind LORD HORNBLOWER hoping SIR ROMULUS(IRE) drops off the pace after early speed battle, he will get the run but all to late as BEYER BEWARE sweeps down the outside and gets the money from XTREMELY A FAN with LORD HORNBLOWER,RED THEATRE(IRE),JOLIE’S SONG and MONKIDLE fighting it out for 3rd.
Suggested bet Trifecta 2,9-2,5,6,9,10-2.4.5.6.8.9.10.11,13 $10 cost $560