Looking For a Rising Star

With six entries coming on Wednesday, the last day to enter, the Grade III Risen Star stakes has swollen to a full field of fourteen three years olds battling over a mile and a sixteenth for the $125,000 purse.

With so many of the racing world’s top rated youngsters running in last week’s Equinics races, some trainers have come to Louisiana to debut their three year olds in graded company here, hoping for a soft field.  But the field had many promising runners.

This time of year, the race often goes to the colt that will have a more successful three year old campaign than he had as a two year old.

Here is a look at the field:

1. The speed figures for Cash Is King (Forty Niner x Danehill) actually decreased when he got trounced in The Afleet Alex Stakes, his first race as a three year old for Super29 (11%).  A race like his allowance win two back would make him competitive here. 

2. Interglalactic (Aptitude x Unbridled) makes just his fourth lifetime start as the only male in the Eddie72 (15%) barn.  He took to the slop last time in a minor stakes to pick up his second win and is undefeated in routes.  Continued improvement makes him a major threat.

3. Gold Coast (Java Gold x Kingmambo) came off of a nine week vacation to score in an allowance last time, running much faster than he had as a two year old.  Can Flaw (16%) get him to show another jump in performance here, or was that just an expected run against a weaker field?  Excellent trainer gives hope, but jockey Davidson is winless in 30 starts in 2006 to dash the hope.

4. Senior Year (Lion Heart x Mr. Greeley) ran an even race against graded company last time, but finished eighth of 14, and that race was a speed figure setback for the Theoc2 (27%) trainee.  He is lightly raced and the experience gives us every reason to think he can improve from that effort.

5. Looking for a fourth straight win, Geduld Hollandia (Diesis x Kaldoun) has finished in the money in all six dirt routes, but the Rintintin (20%) trainee’s figures are less than what many in here have, and it is a large step in class from a four horse restricted allowance to a fourteen horse graded stakes.  Trainer has been doing well with aggressive placings lately though, so be warned.

6. Coming off two straight stakes wins already makes Alastor (Squirtle Squirt x Hennessy) a major player in this, but we especially like that his last effort showed improvement and that it was his first as a three year old and his first at a route.  Marinia (14%) makes the logical class step for this.  The irresistibly named sire has had several stakes winners in the sim but is still without a graded winner.  That may change today.

7. Salutations (Fusaichi Pegasus x Seattle Slew) has tried graded stakes before and was never competitive.  Bookworm (7%) hopes the improvement shown in the colt’s only three year old start bodes for more improvement for the deep closer.  I’d feel better if he had been able to win the allowance race before taking this step in class.

8. Giant Run (Giant’s Causeway x Gone West) made, well, a giant run in his second place finish in the ungraded Mr. West Cap, earning a figure that surpasses any other’s in here.  Out of the Surfer (22%) barn, the effort is enough to make him the favorite in the race.  On the upside, the 96 figure is the best here and the colt has done nothing but improve and looks to be on the way to an excellent three year old season.  On the downside, we try not to pick chalk and there are some questions here.  There are stakes winners in here and Giant Run, after all, did not win that race that brought him the favoritism. Also, this is his first try at two turns.  Sire’s get have shown a slight preference for routes, but still….

9. Death Alley Driver (Gone West x Northern Dancer) is another that showed some improvement in his lone three year old start.  His figure was still a bit light for this crowd, and he makes his debut in graded company and in routes today.  Before you go on to the next entry, though, notice he is trained by Sdmf5 (29%).  Always worth a second look.

10. Nine of Ghetto Muppet’s (Rock of Gibraltar x Zabeel) ten starts have been on the grass.  His only dirt start was a second in a minor stakes, and his only route was a win in a four horse minor stakes.  Very tough to say whether the colt from the veteran Elnop (13%) stable can show the improvement he needs to win this.  Jockey is off to a miserable 22-0-0-1 start in 2006.

11. Editorialize (Point Given x Storm Cat) seems to have one large edge on the rest of them: he is the only early speed horse in the race.  A few in here have been sprinting and often they will run closer to the lead in a route, but for the Correction (28%) trainee, the lead appears to be there for the taking.  Can he hold that lead? At 14-1, count me in.

12. Three for four in routes, Cycle of Renewal (Giant’s Causeway x Fusaichi Pegasus) comes here off an improving stakes win for the Super24 (22%) stable.  If that’s not enough, Cycle picks up a jockey off to a hot 2006 start.

13. White Hot (Western Winter x Red Ransom) has tried dirt routes in his last two.  The results are a first last time in an ungraded stakes and a third in a graded one the time before.  Those efforts have given him the highest ranking in the field and have attracted the top jockey.  The Phantom2 (16%) trainee should get first shot at early leaders.

14. Usually finishing seventh in an ungraded stakes does not give the trainer confidence to step up to a graded effort, but Zewango2 (17%) has faith in his lightly raced All You Fear (Rahy x Alydar).  The colt has been showing improvement each time and his speed figures are not that far away.

Morning line: 8-7-14-13

Timmn’s picks: 6-12-11-13