A Jerry Bailey Free-For All
To paraphrase a statement in Death of a Salesman, Jerry Bailey has always been liked, just maybe not that well-liked. A great jockey, an excellent horseman, he has respect from everybody in the industry, including horseplayers, but it’s always been said that, personally, he’s more icy than fiery. He only retired two weeks ago, but he leaves behind a strong and positive impact on the track. And the Equinics serves to honor this contemporary legend with the $500,000 Jerry Bailey Stakes, a Grade I mile for three-year-old fillies over
The Sim’s three-year-old filly division this year seems to have the atmosphere of a knock-down, drag-out brawl. In the Jerry Bailey, this would appear in particular to be the case, as no less than 13 horses are 17-1 or less, with the morning-line favorite being a modest 8-1. It’s like the Olympics, really; a lot of these names are success stories individually, on their own level, but when you give them exposure in one of the classical days of Sim racing, and throw 20 of them together in one winner-take-all stew, and there are strong chances one of these milers could become America’s sweetheart, a computer chip on a Wheaties box in approximately one minute and forty seconds.
The field, in post position order:
1. Phat Cheerleader (39-1) [Lammtarra-Pook Pook, by Mining]
Trainer: bigbaba
Residency:
Briefly: An 0-for-2 maiden, with two seconds. Very much inbred to Mr. Prospector and Buckpasser. A most versatile filly, though, as she can stalk the early pace up close to the lead or sit in mid-pack and look to make a strong stretch run late. Her last effort was very solid, closing for second behind runaway maiden winner Lifeshaft who likely could be something very special. Draws the rail in this spot, and suspicions here are that she’ll try to make her move late; not a bad idea, given the expected pandemonium on the front end.
2. Dizzy (25-1) [Spinning World x
Trainer: kingswood
Residency: EAAA Racing
Briefly: A well-bred miler’s pedigree supports this maiden winner who marks her 2006 debut in this spot. This three-time stakes-placed filly should be closing late, and if one tosses aside the annihilation she took in the Movieland Starlet last out, the 89 from the start prior gives one hope. She’s another closer who will benefit from the large number of horses likely to be jockeying for position in the lead pack. This homebred’s adjusting well to these middle distances, and should become a solid runner as she ages.
3. Kepler Glen (21-1) [Lammtarra-Extremely The Glen, by Seeking The Gold]
Trainer: marre
Residency: Viking Racing
Briefly: This filly certainly has pedigree to spare. Dam was a four-time stakes winner in grass routes, and half-siblings Gold On Her Finger and It’s Raining Men are stakes winners while sprinting on dirt. She makes her stakes debut here, and has won twice beyond a mile already. She’s also quite versatile, capable of a stalking trip or a late kick in the lane; here, based on recent starts she should be in the mix in the lead pack early on. Her ’06 debut was forgettable at a mile-and-three-sixteenths, and the turn back in distance should be right up her alley. Her figs are still in the 80s, though, on average, and she’ll need to pick up her game for the elevated class level assembled here.
4. Steel Prophet (35-1) [Black Minnaloushe x Afleet]
Trainer: projectx
Residency: Alpine Turf Club
Briefly: She’s never been worse than fourth as a two-year-old, and makes her sophomore debut here. Still-developing filly has the potential for good things at middle distances, but her speed figures are way down the list of competitors here. She likes to mix it up while stalking a strong pace, and was a fast-closing second on ATC Champions Day (versus the boys, no less). Sprinting might be more her speed, down the line.
5. Susquehanna (29-1) [Statue Of Liberty-Alyreason, by Alysheba]
Trainer: bumsofbums
Residency: Fun And Friends Stable Club
Briefly: Well-bred filly has good bloodlines, being out of an undefeated stakes-winner on dirt and being a half-sister to stakes-winner Dora The Explorer. She’s bred for much longer than this, but makes her first start beyond seven furlongs in this particular spot. Her numbers should improve in routes, and they’ll need to in order to be competitive here; average figs around 80 just won’t cut it in this Grade I. She’s a closer, though, and that will come in handy with so many fillies angling for good position in the lead pack. Watch out, too, for possible improvement later if she goes back to the turf, as her figs there were pretty fair with where she is on dirt.
6. Biter Hollandia (12-1) [French Deputy-Biter Phone, by Crusader Sword]
Trainer: barrstable
Residency: Benelux
Briefly: A full brother to stakes-placed Ola Hollandia, she’s hit the board in eight of ten starts. And she might be first among equals on the lead, if her ’06 bow and her ’05 finale are any indication. In the 2006 debut, she broke out to a six-length lead approaching the stretch and cruised home by 3. In her 2005 farewell, in the Grade I DelPenn Mother Story, she was in front by 4 nearing the stretch run and was nailed at the end by Eclipse champion No Apagues La Luz. The mile certainly suits her, and her 95 in the Mother Story is certainly an attention-grabbing speed figure (if only third-best in the field overall). Expect her to win the early pace battle, at least.
7. Thinkmywaypass (39-1) [Saarland-Chief’s Prospector, by Beau Genius]
Trainer: greywolf9
Residency: Queensland
Briefly: Good miler’s pedigree here, too, but has found herself almost always out of her element in graded stakes to date. She would have treasured an off-track, too, as her best graded effort, the Ms. Slew last December, found her closing strong for fifth. The 85 from that wet-track run is good, but her dry track numbers, as well as her other graded figs, do not quite measure up. She was 10th in the Yanta Snez last out, where she wasn’t making up ground late. She likes to come from behind, and maybe a sharp early pace could be just the tonic to help her break through.
8. A Ok Raider (13-1) [Souvenir Copy-Pearl Harbor, by Rahy]
Trainer: raider98
Residency: DelPenn
Briefly: Versatile filly is equally adept on grass and dirt. She won a point-allowance on the grass last time with an 82 fig, following up the end of her juvenile campaign when she captured the restricted DPCD Juvenile Fillies with a 92. Started her career with three successive wins. Likes to charge hard from off the pace, and definitely has shown the affinity for the mile distance. She’ll be charging down the lane this time around, and an expected swift and contentious pace can only aid her quest.
9. Amberleigh Flame (33-1) [Flame Thrower x Double Honor]
Trainer: leeclaim
Residency: Epsom Downs
Briefly: Swift bargain-bred filly should be near the front end early on. Solid $5k claim has led to better things for her. Her best figs fall into the mid-80s, a bit slow for these but impressive considering her humble origins. Just missed in her season-ender in 2005 when she carried a Sweden stakes field for about seven furlongs on the lead before fading. She’ll need to control her turn of foot if she hopes to last with these successfully. She might be more effective turning back in distance in subsequent efforts, maybe a seven furlong sprint.
10. Hancock Pond (10-1) [Gone West x Danzig]
Trainer: salamander
Residency: GR Simsters
Briefly: Blue-blooded pedigree suits a consistent filly: she’s never been worse than third in seven starts. Alas, she’s only been a bridesmaid versus graded competition, with a third in the Getaway, a second in the Frickazee, and a third in the Boca on her resume. Finally managed a stakes win in her ’06 bow, in Montana. She closes like a wild horse in the stretch, and has utilized that run to not-always-successful effect. Maybe a more measured closing dash in the lane would suit her better? Regardless, her record is stellar, but her numbers do come up a little short. However, she is poised to break through at some point in the near future. Whether it’s here or not might have more to do with—what else?—the early pace. Like her jockey here, though.
11. Ravishing Russkie (13-1) [Great Notion x Best Turn]
Trainer: ladyeve2
Residency: NWRC
Briefly: Has won four of twelve starts this early in her young career. Speedy filly set the early fractions in the nine-furlong Hello Goodbye last out before fading (her first time out of a money position), and so turns back into a more-friendly event here. She won’t get the lead solo here, but should be a player among them early regardless. This two-time stakes winner does like to take command of her races early on, but we’re not 100% sure she’d be the fastest from the gate in this Grade I. That said, her figs are extremely competitive, her best number a 94 three back. She’s talented on either surface, but she definitely relished the turf-to-dirt angle at the end of last year. She’s a threat.
12. Espresso D’Italia (12-1) [Medaglia D’Oro-Arequipa, by Miswaki]
Trainer: lasthope1
Residency: Vermont
Briefly: This half to stakes-placed Island Resort has a strong pedigree, one that might benefit from a little bit of extra real estate. She captured the Mistaken Soda Identity in Arizona while coming all the way from Flagstaff to do it. That was a sixteenth longer than here, and the longer distances might be of better use to her than a flat mile. That race earned her a 94, and more recent tries, in particular the New Jersey 2006 debut last out where she was a belated third, haven’t measured up. That ’06 return, though, may have been excused by the off going. Still, it raises an eyebrow, especially considering that some of the hard-hitters on her outside creep closer to the century mark, fig-wise.
13. Lucky’s Brook Lynn (14-1) [Kingmambo x Danzig]
Trainer: mrlucky229
Residency: Ohio Thoroughbred Racing
Briefly: Her 97 when capturing the Grade I Dangerous Reward was a particular standout, considering she was never too far from a very fast pace. The 2006 coming-out party in the Santa Jezebel, though, was very perplexing: she was an always-outrun eleventh. She likely needed the race, but the leap backwards fig-wise doesn’t impress. This two-time stakes winner is either ready to return to the big time, or beginning to retreat on form. Nevertheless, she occupies a rare position among these, as someone who’d be well at home from the middle of the pack, and not fighting them early or coming from the mist late. If she plays with fire, she’ll burn up, and if she starts dormant, she might stay that way. Her measured approach here could help her bounce back, and bounce upwards.
14. Assistant (17-1) [Phone Trick-Firey Turf, by Forty niner]
Trainer: johnno1
Residency: CR Racers
Briefly: This half to stakes-placed Best Of Niner(
15. Silent Rush (13-1) [Cat Thief-Clementine, by Forty Niner]
Trainer: rman
Residency: Minnesota
Briefly: Tired to eighth over the off the off-track in her last, the Grade II Reflection Futurity, at end of ’05. She likes to keep time with the leaders most anywhere, and is fast enough to make the lead on her own, but maybe not versus a graded field here. She should appreciate a dry track more, but there’s an awful lot of pace to contend with. Some restraint might be in order, but she’s bred to go very far if needed, so distance shouldn’t factor. The 94, though, really keeps her in the game, and if that wet-to-dry-track angle gives her bounce, she could last a lot longer than could be anticipated in advance.
16. Cheyenne Gold (8-1) [Seeking The Gold-Cheyenne Storm, by A.P. Indy]
Trainer: ozioziozi
Residency:
Briefly: Oi! Oi! Oi! This filly is the co-favorite, and she’s a perfect 4-for-4 here. Her dam was a class act routing, and passed the genes along to her. She’s never trailed at any point, and makes a graded debut here. She was gutsy winning her one try at a mile last season, nosing out a win, but this is a mighty step up from the listed stakes, even for an unbeaten filly. She might be the only filly fast enough to perhaps wrest the pace control away from Biter Hollandia. But perhaps, too, a little patience might be in order. Her 92 and 94 in a pair of stakes is strong stuff, but the 92 in particular is not the best last-out fig, nor is it higher than anyone else here. If she opts to rate more to save some gas late, she could be posied to pull off the victory, but there’s not enough clear evidence to tell if she’s good enough or strong enough to survive what could be a grueling duel on the lead. Can’t like the post position much, either, especially for a speedy filly.
17. Northern Red(AUS) (10-1) [Redoute’s Choice(AUS)-Forty Cat, by Storm Cat]
Trainer: jockeymax
Residency: Down Under Racing
Briefly: The half to stakes-winner Northern Rock should hang close to the front end without getting swept up in it. She showed heart in capturing the Movieland Starlet at the end of 2005, and showed some rust in making her ’06 return (no excuses to be had, really, there) off a six-week respite. That last fig, too, coming off the Starlet’s 94, seems rather wanting in light of her Grade I win. Her stalking ability needs to be equally judicious as it was in the Starlet, as there are good fillies and a heady pace scenario expected to unfold in front of her. Her outside post won’t impact her chances late as long as she decides not to interfere with the pace scenario.
18. Ampuria (8-1) [Unbridled’s Song-Costa Brava, by Rahy]
Trainer: triska
Residency: Nexis
Briefly: Dam won from six to nine-and-a-half furlongs, but this filly thuis far has picked up the sprinting part of the bloodlines. Won the Masterab Lassie last summer over the champion filly No Apagues La Luz, but hasn’t won since. She’s been tantalizingly close since, though, with graded black-type in the Fast Filly, the Golden Red, and the Reflection Futurity (where she earned her best-last-out fig in the field, a 97, by being a speed demon, before fading in the stretch to be second, beaten a length). The mile might be her limit at present, and the outside post, the pace and her tendency towards winging it early in her starts might be a conspiracy that’s hard to undo. Talented filly, and a co-fave here, she might just prefer to be sprinting instead; she makes her season debut here, so we’ll find out more of the cut of her jib here.
19. Raziel (12-1) [Rahy-Deputy Silver, by Deputy Minister]
Trainer: blaster6
Residency: Ireland
Briefly: 2-for-4 lifetime, but won her first two starts, including a stakes race. She likes to come from off the pace, but not too deep, and an outside post won’t affect her last run. Fast fractions will get her going a whole lot easier, and her jock is talented enough to start her motor late. Her figs are alright, though they did tail off a bit with a rise in competition; still, they should be competitive, and she’s well-rested for this. This well-bred filly should particularly continue to enjoy the scenery as the distances increase; an upset threat.
20. Bongaree (11-1) [Congaree-Dancer Hannah, by Forty Niner]
Trainer: hightimes
Residency: Kentucky Horsemen
Briefly: A foal of a stakes-winning dirt sprinter, this filly is blessed with good tactical speed, and yet cursed here by the #20 post. She hasn’t won since June 2005, but has never failed to earn a paycheck each time out. She’s graded-placed, and looked pretty good in her ’05 finale, just missing while stalking all the way around BC in a stakes. Her effort was rewarded with a 92, and she’s certainly capable of hanging with these. The ability to hold some of her natural speed in reserve should come in handy here, but she’ll have to sacrifice some of it to get into position from the far outside.
My projections:
Gold: Silent Rush. Silver: Cheyenne Gold. Bronze: Raziel.
Dark horses: Ravishing Russkie, Susquehanna, Dizzy, Bongaree.
Good luck to all the residencies and competitors in the 2006 Winter Equinics.