A Twisted Plot: Mysteries To Be Solved in the Dick Francis
Dick Francis is a writer of mystery novels, so surely he’d be proud of the challenge facing handicappers around the world today: twenty horses, none lower than 8/1. Picking a winner? Nearly impossible, especially when you consider that the problem is compounded by rain which has left the turf course drenched and listed as yielding. This handicapper is going to sit back and watch the show, and see what these turf milers can manage when faced with a $1,000,000, G1 test. Lets take a look at the field: The Dick Francis PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds Comments 1 CAMBADOS(IRE) 23/1 Representing the Nexis residency, this son of Catcher In The Rye comes in with a huge shot, despite the long odds: he won his last race impressively going a mile, and he’s a fantastic 5: 4-0-0 on off going. Look for him to try and tuck in behind the first flight of runners and make a middle move; he’ll get a class test when the closers start to move, but if his off track form holds, he could pull a shocker. 2 DANCEHALL DREAMER 20/1 Sheer numbers may hurt this one: he’s speedy, but there are at least seven horses that figure to be within a length or so of the lead, and this representative of the Minnesota residency will have his hands full right from the get go. A six percent jock doesn’t necessarily help his cause, but if this one can find a way to shake loose early, he may just last the mile. 3 CANNON IN D 9/1 One of just three horses in single-digits here, the beautifully bred son of Sadler’s Wells hails from the Down Under Residency, and is ranked 88th in the turf classic division. The big question with this one is whether he has enough ground; his pedigree and performances suggest that his optimum distance may be 9-10 furlongs, so he may find this a little short. He was off the board in his only start on an off track, but his speed numbers (109 in his last race) make him impossible to disregard or brush off. 4 SLEW CAN 14/1 S L Ledwith is quickly becoming one of the elite race riders in the world, and he’s winning at a 30% clip this season. No need then to say that a rider like that on a horse like this has to have the GSR feeling like their representative has a fantastic shot in this one. Slew Can is a blue-blood to the core: his lines of Danzig x Seattle Slew x Mr. Prospector say that this one was bred for greatness, and recent times have seen him flirting with that potential. He’s an accomplished router, having earned more than $400,000 going 8 panels or more, but he may be a better sprinter, where he is 6: 4-1-1. He skipped home an easy winner in his last race, but earned just a 99 speed figure here. If that one was, as this writer thinks, simply a prep for today, this one will be very dangerous. 5 JACKY HOLLANDIA 10/1 Ranked 44th in the division, this son of Sakhee comes in with a perfect 2: 2-0-0 record over the off going and the talented K. Ledwith, brother of the aforementioned S L Ledwith, on board. Representing the Benelux residency, this lightly raced colt is on the up-and-up, having won 7 of only 13 starts. He’s already a G2 winner, but he may be looking for more gound: his sire won the Arc and was probably best at 12 furlongs, so this one may also run out of room. Ledwith will have to time his ride beautifully, but if he can time it right, this one very well could take home the top prize. 6 NORTH OF THE PARK 26/1 From the Great Plains comes this colt, who has made only 8 lifetime starts. He’s compiled a 4-2-0 record from those 8 starts; his only off the board showings were a run over the dirt and in a G2 race. He’s likely to be up near the lead early, and then its simply a question of whether he has the class to kick on for home. He won his only try on the off going, but that was on the dirt and may not speak to his ability to handle the wet turf. The jock on board is winless this year, which doesn’t help this one’s cause. That said, its almost impossible to pass a judgment on a horse with only 8 starts: the only way to find out if he belongs with this company is to run the race. 7 TRANSYLVANIA 13/1 The GR Simsters have sent this colt as their representative, and this colt has been knocking heads with classy competition for a long time. He doesn’t often come out on top, but he’s been in the money 10 of 14 (winning three), and has to be afforded a big chance here. His speed numbers put him up with the best in the field, and this one figures to be right there at the finish. MANIFEST DESTINY 8/1 Ranked third in the division, this one is the obvious favorite here: the Queensland residency has to feel like they hit the goldmine in securing this Storm Cat son as their representative. A multiple G1 winner of over $1.3 million, and a jock with an unbelievable 32% win rate on board, this one will take some serious beating. Whether there are any up to the challenge in this field is questionable, and there are nineteen other trainers here today hoping that this colt won’t be able to handle the off track in what will be his first test over such going. 9 FORT MEADE 27/1 Representing Epsom Downs, this one has drawn this “other brother,” R. Harzheim, who is almost as talented as his older brother, winning 28% of his starts. He has a somewhat more challenging task ahead of him than his brother, as this colt has only won once in his last eight starts, but he figures to put this colt near the pace early and see what he has left with about three furlongs left to run. Its possible, though not likely, that this flashy son of Tabasco Cat will pull off a huge run and put himself in contention for a check. 10 OUT ON BAIL 11/1 This one, though primarily a sprinter, has adequate experience over a route of ground (7: 4-1-0) to give the Ohio Thoroughbred Racing Residency hope that he’ll be able to uncorck a big run today. Traditionally a stalker, this one might find himself up a little bit closer to the pace than usual: as a sprinter lengthening out, he may be a little bit eager. If he can relax and time his run properly, his speed numbers suggest that he’s very much in contention for a piece of the prize. 11 WAR CITY 29/1 Wet turf gives favorites reasons to pause and longshots hope, and so it is with this colt, who seems to be up against a tough situation here making his his 2nd start against open competition, having previously stuck to his own age group. This marks his first start in 2006, and though he was a G2 winner last year, what makes him most appealing as a possible longshot play is that his only start over an off track yielded an overwhelming 4 ¼ length victory. Has a shot if that form translates here. 12 DANE’S CAT 19/1 Ireland sends this one out, and the speed figures of late say that this one may be left on the outside looking in. He’s taking a step way up in class today, and will need to return to the form that saw him running 100+ speed numbers a few starts back if he is to have a shot. 13 SEEKING SAL 14/1 Winner of a G3 race last time out and a representative of DelPenn, this one has routinely clashed with some talented runners, and come out on top often enough. He hasn’t shown any particular affinity for the off going, and is just 2: 0-0-1 over wet ground. That said, simply repeating his last race would see him run in the money here; improvement could give him a very real shot at some significant cash ($600,000 will go to the winner today). 14 DUBEYE 23/1 Colt ranked 34th in the division has fallen on hard times as of late, but EAAA Racing is hoping that the $600,000 earner can nearly double his earnings by returning to some of his old form. In a race chock full of stellar jockeys, this one has drawn perhaps thee best: B. Schardein wins at a 35% clip, and if there’s any gas in this one’s tank, Schardein will find it. 15 FEAR SEEKER(AUS) 26/1 Often a bridesmaid, rarely a bride, the Alpine Turf Club sends this son of Zedative to battle. He’s won 5 of 22 races, and been 2nd in 10, so trainer hellafied must be scratching his head wondering how to get this one over the hump. His best speed numbers would give him an outside chance to crack the top 5; but he’ll need to be on the absolute top of his game. 16 REDSADKY 9/1 Ranked 10th in the division after only 9 starts, this one won the G1 Nijinsky Handicap last time out. The Red Ransom son represents the Vermont residency, and drew the “other other brother,” the third of the Harzheim clan. If anyone looks likely to be able to topple Manifest Destiny, it is this colt. 17 THE GOURMET 20/1 8 furlongs is a tricky distance, traditionally one at which sprinters can sometimes last, or routers can sometimes get up in time. A good miler is worth their weight in gold, and is about as rare. This is, unfortunately, why the Kentucky Horsemen are looking at a tall mountain for their representative to climb. His last start was over 16 furlongs, and he may have some problems shortening up for this one. He’s a very classy horse, but this race doesn’t seem to fit with his recent training schedule, which has seen him lengthen out rather than shorten up and sharpen up. 18 TETE NOVEMBRE(IRE) 9/1 A multiple graded winner, the Viking Racing represntative’s plan is simple: the jets will be on right out of the gate, and he’ll just be pedal to the metal the whole way, daring anyone to come and catch him. He’s never seen the off going, which could make things a little bit dicey, but he has as much of a shot at winning this as anyone. 19 I AM SCHEMING 10/1 This colt is ranked 7th in the division and was 2nd in the G1 Breeders’ Bowl Mile, so he can obviously stick with the best. He’s brilliant over an off track (6: 4-1-0), but his speed numbers are just a few points below those of the big-names in this field. He’ll need a big race, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if this one came late to grab all the goods for the NorthWest Racing Circuit. 20 EX SPINAS UVAS 51/1 Fun and Friends Stable Club sends out this extreme longshot. At 51/1, and with no recent stakes experience, he’s a talented allowance horse but hard to see him factoring in here. He’s also most comfortable over the main track, so he seems to be between a rock and a hard place here. Given time to develop over the dirt, he could be very talented, but this doesn’t look to be his race.
Grade I
One mile
Yielding Turf
$1,000,000
All horses, 4 years old and up