Andy, the Creep, and the Lion Look to Drown Isle of Revenge

By: Dan Silver (Given)

Close your eyes, focus your thoughts, and you can probably imagine the gates opening, the brilliant colors of the jockey silks, the chaos into the first turn, the thundering of the hooves as the horses turn for home, and finally the look of exultation on the winning jockey’s face. That vision of grandeur will become reality this weekend as the Sim’s biggest week of the year takes stage. The 2006 Equinics have arrived, and so too have hundreds upon thousands of Simmers from around the globe, all converging on Vermont and Italy to watch the game’s brightest stars battle for residency supremacy. All in all 20 residencies are participating in the Equinics, and it looks to be the most competitive yet.

Defending champions GSR have seen some turmoil since their winning run in the 2004 Equinics but have still put together a very formidable squad. The host residency Vermont, who should be commended for their effort in organizing this tremendous event, have perhaps their best team assembled yet. The Kentucky Horsemen have put together an incredible team that many consider the favorites to take home Equinics Gold. The upstart GR Simsters, who could manage only one top three finisher in 2004, are sitting atop the residency earnings and are turning heads around the Sim. And of course there’s DelPenn. Buoyed by the success of the Super Stables and a contingent of very talented older horses led by 2005 Sim Horse-of-the-Year Horseshoe Bay, they could go home with the grand prize. Although those five residencies look the ones-to-beat, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if someone else galloped away with Equinics Gold. That’s what makes this event so special. Anything can happen.

Let’s turn our attention to the matter at hand, examining the J.D. Tovar Stakes (G1, 9.5f Turf, all 3yo’s). The race’s namesake is certainly an elusive character. He’s so elusive, in fact, that no matter whom I questioned during the last two weeks, I wasn’t able to find out any information about him at all, except that he was last seen working his trade somewhere in Central America. Hopefully the race named after him will be easier to get a handle on that J.D.’s whereabouts.

Much of the current buzz surrounding the race involves an element out of everyone’s control. All week long the local experts predicted sunshine all Equinics weekend, but yesterday a maelstrom in the Mediterranean Sea created a flash storm in Italy, soaking the turf course. Race officials have been scrambling to make sure that the track is ready for 16 races on Saturday but a yielding track appears a certainty. Five runners in the race have seen a wet turf track before, and none emerged victorious. We can certainly speculate based on breeding whether the rest will like the give in the grass or not, but we won’t know for sure until they hit the track.

Let’s have a look and try to make some sense of this massive 19-horse field!

1) Representing Minnesota is Maverick, 10/1, Gone West x Forty Niner x A.P. Indy, trained by desperado2

-This colt is more talented than his record of only one win indicates, as he’s finished in-the-money in two consecutive graded races at nine furlongs. Two back he finished 2^nd in the G3 Phenom Stakes to Isle of Revenge, and in his last race he finished 3^rd in the G3 Panhandle Park Derby to Listen to the Lion. His stalking style should give him an advantage in a field of this size, and he has one run on a good turf course finishing 2^nd in an allowance. He’ll need to improve to win, but a top three finish could be in the cards.

2) Representing Ireland is Fantastic Muse, 15/1, Fantastic Light x Danzig x Rainbow Quest, trained by borden

-One of five graded winners in the race, this colt comes into this weekend needing a spark. Despite being a G2 and G3 winner as a 2yo, he’s fallen on hard times of late, finishing 11^th two races back in the G1 DelPenn Champions Day Epiphany Too at 8.5f, and most recently finishing 3^rd with a 77 SF in a 6.5f ungraded stakes race. The huge upside here is that his most impressive race, the G2 Manofjunk Stakes was run at the longest distance he has seen, 8.5f. It’s entirely possible that he could explode in his first long turf effort, especially with his tremendous turf classic breeding. Definitely one to watch.

3) Representing the Kentucky Horsemen is Yukon Hollandia(Ire), 13/1, Street Cry(Ire) x Broad Brush x Seattle Slew, trained by waffleboy (aka hollandia)

-A very intriguing mid-level longshot, as this colt is riding a three-race turf winning streak including two straight stakes triumphs. In his most recent race he won a tenacious stretch battle to emerge victorious by a head in an ungraded turf stakes at 9f. His speed figure of 85 from that effort will need to improve by at least five points to have a shot at medaling here, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibilities.

4) Representing the Great Plains is Drop A Dime, 60/1, Eavesdropper x Brocco x Royal Academy, trained by ajr15

-A definitely longshot, this colt was defeated 15 lengths in a mile turf allowance last time out, although two races back he won an 8.5f turf allowance convincingly by two lengths. He’s never seen the off turf, so if he can get out to a big lead and finds the soft turf to his liking, there’s no telling how far he’ll be able to go!

5) Representing GSR is Ollie’s Gone, 9/1, Gone West x Lear Fan x Danzig, trained by beamnreasn (aka spartan)

-In terms of dark horses go, no horse was mentioned by pundits around the track this week than this very regal looking son of Gone West. He won his debut at 7f on the lawn easily and proceeded to dominate two consecutive turf stakes routes, the latter at 8.5f by two lengths with an impressive 92 speed figure. His trainer wanted to see if he could handle the dirt in his most recent race, and while he didn’t embarrass himself, it was clear that his preference was for the green stuff. His undefeated turf record is on the line this weekend and his pedigree says the distance shouldn’t be a problem. He rates an excellent chance to win but he will have to prove his class.

6) Representing Viking Racing is Tete Ratamanaz(NZ), 29/1, Zabeel(NZ) x Testa Rossa(Aus) x Sky Classic, trained by racelord (aka sabbath)

-Two races back this modestly bred colt blew up an mile turf allowance with an explosive stretch rally to win going away by 3 lengths. He received a nice 83 speed figure for that effort. If he was coming into the Equinics off that effort his odds would have been lower, but last time out while running on a turf course rated good, he ran poorly in an 8.5f allowance, finishing 5^th by ten lengths. He obviously has a lot of talent, but unless he runs the race of his life it’s hard to see him taking home part of the purse.

7) Representing Nexis is Hr De Fond, 31/1, Chateau Royal x Le Fabuleux x Native Prospector, trained by hracinggem

-Not much to go on with this colt as his lone race was a maiden win. In that effort he ran down an impressive group of debuters going 8.5f with an 88 speed figure. This is an enormous step up and while his speed figure stacks up very nicely with the field here, it’s hard to envision him running a big race going from MSW to G1.

8) Representing Ohio Thoroughbred Racing is Andy’s Choice, 9/1, Rainbow Quest x Gone West x Lyphaness, trained by gunsynd (aka hydrogen)

-An Eclipse finalist and one of the horses to beat this weekend, he’s won four of six turf starts including a G1 and a G3. He started off his career as good as it gets, ripping off four straight victories culminating with a gutsy victory in the mile G1 High Flyer Stakes with a 90 speed figure. In his next start he ran well in the Breeders Bowl finishing 4^th, and in his most recent start he finished 2nd in the G1 DelPenn Champions Day Epiphany Too at 8.5f running a career best 94 speed figure. This will be his first run going more than 8.5f but his pedigree says he should relish the added distance. If he handles the yielding course he is clearly one of the top contenders.

9) Representing DelPenn is Listen to the Lion(Ire), 8/1, Rock of Gibraltar(Ire) x Irish River(FR) x The Minstrel, trained by super10

-When people have been discussing the race, this is invariably one of the first two names mentioned. After failing to wow the world in his first six races, his astute super trainers entered him going 9f in the G3 Apparently Juvenile, and he responded by powering his way to an overwhelming two length victory with a scintillating 95 speed figure. He dispelled any notions of that race being a fluke in his most recent race, pummeling his helpless foes in the 9f Panhandle Park Derby, again winning by two lengths. His breeding says the soft turf should be no problem at all, and expect to see him flying through the stretch like his sire did in the Breeders Cup Mile. But unlike his sire, this Lion might get just up for the victory.

10) Representing the GR Simsters is Creepshow(Ire), 9/2, Rock of Gibraltar(Ire) x Deputy Minister x Seeking The Gold, trained by lenny28 (aka lennbrenner)

-The pre-race favorite has been the toast of the press all week long. His eccentric trainer lennbrenner had showed up in every bar in Italy over the course of the week proclaiming the greatness of this colt. In Rome the patrons of one bar started calling him “the man with money coming out of his pockets and manure coming out of his mouth.” Love him or hate him, his horse looks like a monster in the making. He’s only made four trips to the starting gates, but he’s made them count. First he smoked an MSW going 6.5f by two lengths. He then jumped straight to stakes and crushed six foes going a mile by two lengths with a 91 speed figure. From there it was straight to the G1 DelPenn Champions Day Epiphany Too at 8.5f where he finished willingly for third. Four weeks later lennbrenner entered him going 9f in the G1 Japan Racing Association where he faced his vanquisher in the previous race. This time he stole the show, closing like a rocket to win with an incredible 98 speed figure. A repeat of that effort makes him the winner here without a doubt, but it might be asking too much of this lightly raced colt to win consecutive G1’s. One thing’s for sure, if this horse wins, drinks are on lennbrenner.

11) Representing Epsom Downs Residency is Black Air II, 33/1, Strike The Gold x Black Tie Affair(Ire) x Stage Door Johnny, trained by Epsom

-A speedy colt who is probably in above his head, this colt took five starts to break his maiden, accomplishing that feat in his most recent race. If there’s cause for optimism it’s that he won going 8.5f, the farthest that he had run, but his tepid 75 speed figure gives reason for pause. He’s in very deep this week.

12) Representing Down Under Racing is Rainbow Phyl, 9/1, Rainbow Quest x Danzig x Storm Cat, trained by sam (aka sal)

-An intriguing colt for sure, this very well bred son of Rainbow Quest is coming off two 2^nd place finishes in dirt stakes races. In his most recent turf race he bombarded a 7.5f stakes by 3+ lengths with an 83 speed figure. If that was the longest he’d run I’d be more bullish on his chances this weekend, but in his lone turf route, an allowance race, he finished 3^rd with a 78 speed figure. If there was an excuse that day, this horse becomes a very live horse and he must be respected. He could surprise some people with a big run.

13) Representing EAAA Racing is Watches(Ire), 19/1, Desert King(Ire) x Northern Dancer x Tom Fool, trained by kaif021

-One of the live longshots in the race, this colt is bred through and through to excel going long on the turf. After finishing an uninterested 5^th in his debut at 5.5f, he reeled of impressive MSW and allowance wins at a mile on the turf, and his most recent two runs were both 2^nd place finishes in mile turf stakes, the one two back earning an 88 speed figure. He has the profile of a colt who wants to run longer, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sneaks into the money at long odds. Definitely don’t discount his chances.

14) Representing the NorthWest Racing Circuit is The Missing(Ire), 22/1, High Chaparral(Ire) x Gone West x Seattle Slew, trained by kaif013

-The second of kaif’s charges in the race, and I don’t like this one quite as much as Watches(Ire). After recording maiden victories and an allowance score running at a mile on the turf he stretched out to longer distances with little success. Most recently he finished 8^th, beaten 14 lengths, in the G1 Japan Racing Association run over 9f. I think he will be an excellent horse as he ages, but at the moment it’s hard to envision him having a large impact on this weekend’s race.

15) Representing the CR Racers is PGA Dixiemillenium, 19/1, Dixieland Band x Dubai Millennium (GB) x Seattle Slew, trained by snags (aka balata)

-An intriguing longshot play, this colt is bred to run all day long. He’s run three times on the turf, breaking his maiden in second start at a mile, and most recently finishing 3^rd in an 8.5f turf stakes with a nice 85 speed figure. After a failed dirt start he’s back to the turf here, and while a win might be out of the question, this horse’s past performances indicate that this weekend’s distance won’t be an issue. Dixieland Band is known for producing horses that love wet conditions, and if this colt takes to the giving lawn he could provide a spark at the back of a massive trifecta!

16) Representing Queensland is Test The Slew(Aus), 28/1, Testa Rossa(Aus) x Miswaki x Seattle Slew, trained by alagou (aka jacklad)

-A relative outsider, this colt’s past performances indicate a double whammy. In his lone turf start at a routing distance he ran 11^th in a G1 on a yielding course with a 64 speed figure. He might be hindered by both the distance and the condition of this weekend’s race, which is a shame because he’s coming off a very impressive turf sprint allowance victory with an impressive 90 speed figure, So while it’s hard to like him this weekend, there’s no doubt the future is bright indeed!

17) Representing the Alpine Turf Club is Kool Thing(Ire), 41/1, Black Sam Bellamy(Ire) x Septieme Ciel x Blushing Groom(Fr), trained by eddieatc (aka eddieboo)

-There’s no question this colt has a better chance than the odds indicate, as his lone turf route resulted in an impressive 2+ length victory going a mile. The speed figure was a slow 77, the reason for the 41/1 odds, but his large margin of victory indicates that his jockey may have been saving something for future races. Obviously a speed figure increase of around 15 points will be necessary to compete this weekend, but he’s bred to run long and could surprise some people.

18) Representing Vermont is Isle of Revenge, 9/1, Strong Hope x Nureyev x Nodouble, trained by braylee (aka fabman)

-Catch me if you can is the game that this classy colt will be playing this weekend. He’s got speed to burn and he flaunted it two races back in the G3 Phenom Stakes at 9f, opening up by six lengths in the stretch and holding on to win by two lengths with a 94 speed figure. In his most recent race he bobbled at the start of the 9f G1 Japan Racing Association and never recovered, finishing a well beaten 5^th by 12 lengths. Besides him there’s not much classy speed this weekend and I think he could open up by daylight heading into the stretch. From that point it’s just a question of if he can hold off the classy closers. He’s definitely one to fear.

19) Representing Benelux is Moon Damage(Ire), 16/1, Moon Ballad(Ire) x In The Wings(GB) x Alydar, trained by sirronny (aka johnny)

-It’s very hard to get a read on this colt off only one turf start, as seven of his eight starts have come on the dirt. In that lone turf try he finished third in a 7.5f stakes race with an 81 speed figure. His best race on the dirt came at the longest he’s run, 8.5f, which is certainly an encouraging sign that he might like going long on the lawn. It’s hard to recommend him at his relatively low odds, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he runs very well. Consider him a wildcard.

Well, those are all the competitors for what should be an extremely fun race! Good luck to everyone and enjoy the Equinics weekend!