3YO Filles Expected To Trigger A Myocardial Infarction In Dubai

A myocardial infarction is a fancy-schmancy way of saying a “heart attack”.  But it is also a good way to start off a filly’s three-year-old campaign.

This week in Dubai, it’s the sixth running of the Grade III Myocardial Infarction Stakes, a $125,000 stakes on dirt over a mile-and-a-sixteenth.  Winners of this stakes over the years have had a mix of achievements on and off the track.  This is especially true of the winner of the inaugural MI Stakes, Denoia.  While her work on the track has been fairly good, she’s really left an impact in the Sim in the breeding shed, having been the dam of graded stakes winners Kris Noia and Sambeira, as well as the graded-placed three-year-old Capoeira(IRE).  Additionally, a number of fillies have stopped through this race on their way to bigger and better things down the line.  Graded winners, such as 2004 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly Mumbai, September Royalty, Giant Hopes(IRE), Birds Of Paradise, Wood Attack, Meet The Legend, Ghoul’s Gold and Vegas Vixen have all made a stop in this race before taking quantum leaps in their careers.  It’s a pit stop en route to the future.

And this year’s contenders, all ten of them, have a fair shot to join them.

Long Goodbye(AUS) [Lonhro(AUS)-Gessle The Great, by Dubai Millennium(GB)] has the rail, and she found it easier to negotiate the mile than nine furlongs last out, when she was third in the restricted GR Simsters Thoroughbred Trials.  She closed wildly, but only could manage third for trainer simsters1.  In her final two 2005 starts, she utilized that late kick to win both times, including a North Korea stakes.  She’s the biggest price here at 15-1, and her numbers reflect that, with her dirt numbers hanging tight around 80.  The best horses here have one thing in common, and that’s the ability to pop numbers closer to 90 than 80 at this stage.  Watch her as she continues her development, but she’s going to need something to make her late run a valuable commodity in this spot.

Icepro T [Septieme Ciel-Cap Improve, by Mr. Prospector], for trainer shanx, is a half-sister to graded-placed stakes winner Polar Cap T, and she too has found the transition to 3 to be challenging.  She tired badly while finishing last in the Grade II Hello Goodbye, and seeks to make amends half a world away.  In her career, the closer she’s been to the lead, the better she has fared, with both wins coming when she’s been sitting just off the leader’s flank, lying in wait.  The further off the lead she’s found herself, the less impressive the effort has been; in fact, the mile appears to be her best distance, judging from the past performances.  Here, there figures to be a few fillies challenging the early pace, and she should find herself without a moment of peace on the lead this time around, which might make her chances around her to be a bit more compromising.

Fantasmic [Unbridled’s Song x Seattle Slew] has been a solid performer in her young career for trainer alphonso, and she steps up in class to make her graded debut in Dubai.  She won her first two starts impressively, including a stakes race over this surface (with a career-best 85), and did so wire-to-wire both times.  As she’s stretched out, though, the numbers and results have lost some luster.  Going seven-and-a-half furlongs (her longest race to date) two back, she faded to third after leading by 3 at one point, and last out against the boys in the restricted ATC Champions Day she faded back to fifth.  Throughout this youngster’s career, she’s shown little dimension other than trying to dictate the pace in sprints; she’ll need to vary her skills this time around as she faces a tougher group of filles, her first time over a mile and a lot more pressure up front early, all in one Grade III.  Expect her to stake her claim on the front end, but her pedigree’s staying power needs to come into play now, not later.

Azroc Before Then [Dynaformer x Distorted Humor] represents the barn of cjt3, and she makes her sophomore debut after a two-year-old campaign where she was never worse than fourth.  Her early career has been pretty solid, the highlight being a fourth while still a maiden in a California Grade II stakes, and her maiden win three back was very impressive; she broke well, went out fast and easy going a mile (eventually leading by over five lengths), and held on late for a win in Idaho (where she beat one of my horses, but I hold no grudges…especially since I gave that homebred back to the pool).  Her last two starts have found her struggling with her racing niche, stalking both times, and finishing third both times in stakes company.  The distance, theoretically, shouldn’t be an issue for her, but the question begs: can she get on the lead, and do so without being pressured strongly or collapsing badly late?  She’s at her best leading on her own terms, and might prefer it that way this time around.

Galapalooza [Sadler’s Wells-Newbie’s Dream, by Storm Cat] has done things to the beat of her own drummer for trainer keryn.  She was stakes-placed in her debut, missing only a head in North Korea, then, after another failed stakes try she moved down into maiden-level company.  There, she was fourth going a mile, and then broke her maiden very professionally, winning a nine-furlong MSW with an 88, by 2.  That result was made even more impressive by the fact she had to make up more than six lengths in the final quarter-mile before drawing off to that two-length win.  She’s poised to truly be something special, perhaps, but that’s not surprising when you notice that she’s a half to Grade I-winner Danzig With Sal and stakes-winner Beginner’s Luck, all from the Grade I-winning mare Newbie’s Dream.  The 88 is not the best last-out fig, and she’s still, at the end of the sentence, just a maiden winner.  But if a mile-and-a-sixteenth was good enough for Mom to win the California Oaks with, it might be good enough for this filly.  Her running style fits among these, and time will tell if the step up in class will measure up to that maiden win.

Elusive Infinity [Elusive Quality-Otto Infinity, by Danehill] has a pedigree that screams out for more ground for the 2die4 barn, but she’s been a victim of either poor racing luck or circumstance lately.  She’s a stakes winner from last fall, in Delaware, but she’s proven herself versatile, either coming from off the pace or acting as the main speed in most of her career starts to date.  She’s more likely these days to come from off the pace, but recent results indicate that she needs a lot of terrain to work with.  In the Grade I Sky Beauty, she was only beaten less than three lengths, yet still wound up tenth in her 2006 debut, thus falling prey to the iffy racing luck fior the second straight time; her finale of 2005 in Florida, she had trouble making her late run when she drew an outside post versus a full field of Grade II runners and ended up seventh.  Here, it’s a Grade III bunch, all of whom are capable but beatable, and she’s got a good position from which to make her charge.  But will her kick be convincing?  It hasn’t set the world on fire previously, and her figs put her in the middle of the pack here, but she’s now 3, and maturing.

Armed With Money [Military x Shadeed] appears to be a humble homebred at first blush for trainer monksfield, but she certainly has succeeded beyond most people’s expectations.  She’s 3-for-5 lifetime, and has never been worse than fourth.  And she’s done so while coming from nowhere to close on the leaders each time out.  Distance has never been an issue—she won her debut at today’s distance—and neither has class; she was fourth in the Grade I Boca Stakes two back, and won at Vermont last time out in a stakes with a 91 (the best last-out speed fig here).  That race was marvelous, as she made up an eight-length deficit in the final half-mile to draw off by almost four, and it showed a lot of potential going much longer down the line.  The kick should be set up nicely, with as much pace as this field potentially contains, and her recent form should have her primed for another top-notch effort here; the nagging question here is regarding whether she’s got what it takes yet to achieve in a graded race: although this field (despite sharing a few contestants with the Boca) isn’t quite as imposing, it is very evenly matched.

Western Song [Unbridled’s Song-Southern Lynn, by Gone West] has suddenly turned into something of an enigma.  She’s a feast-or-famine filly: either she’s won, or she’s been fourth, in her eight starts at 2.  She’s achieved a lot of her success in wire-to-wire fashion, and as a two-year-old, she achieved the unusual feat of having been leading at the first two points-of-call each time out.  This tactic has helped her win three stakes, all at seven panels, last year at 2.  But in her ’06 debut, she was dropped well out of it in the Grade I Sky Beauty, and made a strong late run late to finish beaten only a length and a half, while sixth.  Trainer stoners has never been much of a shrinking violet on the main stage of the Sim, but threw everyone a curveball last out with a change in tactics.  Did it work?  Well, her closing dash there was very strong, but everyone was closing very strong on the loose-on-the-lead winner there, and the irony is that she might have been the one to wire them (or at least improved on the sixth-place result)  if she had stuck to her usual game plan.  A repeat of that late kick is possible in this spot, considering the number of horses who should be jockeying for position on the front end of things, and this should be a truer test of her abilities closing ground late.  The numbers are fair among these, and the pedigree suggests that a route should be to her liking, but regardless, this is a versatile filly to look out for during the course of the year.

Spirit Of Revolt [War Chant x Sadler’s Wells], racing under the silks of greenapple, and was clearly bred to be something else on grass.  But such is the ways of the Sim breeding that she hasn’t really connected to the grass at all, and all of her wins have come on the dirt.  She’s been taking it slow, to be sure, as this marks her first appearance in stakes company.  Up till now, she’s been chugging away in allowances, and has been doing alright, with a win last out in her season debut and no result worse than fourth at this level.  She’s been slowly improving, with each speed fig getting better with each start, but her best fig, last out, is still just an 85, and the lack of any stakes experience makes her a mystery in her graded bow.  She should be making her move in the second half of the race, although her late run has been rather mild, really.  The mile should be her preferred distance, but she’ll have to show a lot more here than she has previously.

Northern Slammer [Grand Slam-Strangely Twist, by Event Of The Year] has an outside post for this mile-and-a-sixteenth affair for jockeymax6, but that shouldn’t be too detrimental here.  She’s run with the best of the filly division at 2, with a fourth in the Masterab Lassie being her prize result, and she held her own, winning a stakes race and honing her own stretch run.  Her 2006 debut was a decent allowance win by 3 in Texas, though the 81 speed fig isn’t going to scare too many people.  She’s popped a couple of 87’s late last year, which makes her a fair contender, but the late run needs to be sharper here, as there’s a couple of fillies who have stronger late runs to unleash.

My selections:

1. Galapalooza
2. Armed With Money
3. Western Song
4. Fantasmic
5. Elusive Infinity

Good luck, and happy racing.