Looking Forward to the Backward

An evenly matched field of nine three year old fillies will open the card in New Mexico’s $125,000 Grade III Backward Gal Stakes, going seven furlongs on what should be a speedy dirt track.

Several of the young ladies should be vying for an early lead, so it should be a fun race to watch.  Some filly will capture her first graded win today.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Upsetter (Golden Missile x Clever Trick) faded badly last time in a graded try at nine furlongs.  She is zero for three in routes, but comes back sprinting today where she is four for six.  She can rate behind the early runners and has more than competitive speed figures among these, but the MikeHusker (14%) trained filly has had most of her successes against smaller fields.

2. Comprende (El Corredor x At the Threshold) has owned the lead for the first two calls in all nine lifetime starts.  She has held on to finish in the money seven of those times, including a pair of stakes wins.  She looks to be pressured again today, and any other filly that needs an easy lead will have tough going with the presence of this RaceCK (9%) trainee in the race.

3. Super2’s (18%) Hold Et Buster (Street Cry x Mr. Prospector) has finished in the money in all six of her dirt sprints, including a speedy stakes win six months ago.  She comes off a brief six week freshening.  Her speed figures before that break were a bit weak for this; we’ll have to see if she matured during her rest.

4. Vigilante’s (Cape Town x Swain) lone win came when she was able to establish a lead in a two turn race.  The Charmer (12%) trained filly will have trouble getting in front of Comprende early.  On the bright side, a return to dirt sprints brought out a revived effort last time.

5. A closer, Thetis (Lion Heart x Black Tie Affair) should have some pace to run at here.  Passed mostly tired horses last time in the GIII Special Bid, but that race was against tougher.  A return today to distaff ranks should help the chances of the Troy5 (10%) trained filly.

6. Black Strike’s (Smart Strike x Danzig) lone finish worse than second was a route.  She already has three stakes wins, and trainer Wiz2 (11%) finds a soft field for the filly to try graded company for the first time.  She should be close throughout.

7. She leads the field in winnings per race and gets top jockey Francis Duffy, but Miss Congeniality (Congaree x Mr. Greeley) goes off at the longest odds in the field.  Her last win came three and a half months ago in the Reality Ham Challenge.  Health problems have kept her to one start since then – a dismal run in a DelPenn Challenge stakes.  She made need a race or two to regain her form for trainer Paddy (8%).

8. With her three for four record, Strong Prospect (Strong Hope x Mr. Prospector) figures prominently here.  The Buttons (11%) trainee’s 91 speed figure ties with Upsetter for the second fastest in the field.  The jump in class makes all kinds of sense, and she’s favored again today.

9. The highest speed figure in the race belongs to Deb’s Empire (Empire Maker x Shareef Dancer), earned last time in wiring an allowance field.  The ElProfit1 (11%) trainee figures to contest the early pace.  Her last race was much faster than anything she ran as a two year old, and young horses are more likely to continue improvement than bounce.

Morning line selections: 8-1-6-2

Timmn’s picks: 6-5-2-8