Familiar foes, familiar surroundings
By ITCH
Ever hear the story about the old horse who got loose at the track one day?
He’d been having some pitched battles against another horse on the grounds, entering race after race against him. When the old horse got loose, he knew right where to go: his rival’s stall. There they found him, glowering at his regular opponent.
We’re breeding the same kind of familiarity here at the Mountain Oval. No fewer than five of the entrants in Saturday’s $45,000 L’Rod Bull Special going 10.5 furlongs exit the same race, the Flywaki Bonanza back in week 2734. That was the race that featured two Breeders Bowl starters: Squal Me Halo and Year of the Vote, who finished second and third that day. Neither one of them return Saturday, and the Fab horse that won, I Come to Play, also has passed on the L’Rod.
That leaves DIAMOND HEAD from Ts1442’s south40 barn, the fourth-place finisher in the Flywaki Bonanza, as the one with the powerful handicapping notation: “Just Beat These.” Indeed, Diamond Head ran well in the Flywaki, sitting just off the outside flank of the eventual winner for most of the trip. He couldn’t quite go with I Come to Play, but he finished just 2 1/4 lengths off the lead in a photo finish with Texasace’s Year of the Vote. It was the result of that photo that staked Texasace to the only two points scored by a contest trainer this year.
If the race had been longer that day, those two points quite possibly would belong to two-time defending Stakes Competition champion Wassie, whose WASSIE’S RAINBOW G was closing stoutly in the lane only to be an unlucky fifth, beaten 1 1/4 lengths by the two horses in the show photo. To win, Diamond Head is going to have to hold off the Rainbow for another furlong. It just looks like from the way the last race was run, the added distance is going to benefit Wassie’s horse here. It is interesting to see that Jocko Maloney remains on board despite his ill-timed ride in the Flywaki and repeated incidents in Rainbow’s stall. Also of note is the consistency we can see with Drunken Morning Line Oddsmaker Charlie Hoops, who made both Rainbow and INDISPENSABLE 8-1 in the Flywaki, and makes them both 4-1 as co-favorites here.
Now, those were the top two finishers of five coming from the Flywaki. The other three are TOM’S SHINING STAR (6th), INDISPENSABLE (8th) and SLEW O TROUBLE (11th). We’d probably better get to the top two qualifiers for the race before we get to that trio.
Delta2tigr’s SEATTLE DELTA, qualifies first and is the only progeny of Running Stag, a Cozzene sire, ever to win a stakes race in the Sim. Here is the question about Seattle Delta: How is a horse that ran his best career race on a sloppy track going to like a good track? He’s never started on one before. It’s either been fast or sloppy. And the horse likes it sloppy. He won a Grade I five back in Texas on the slop, and hasn’t run a lick since. It’s been four straight clunkers since the career-making score, a form cycle oft-repeated in the Sim, much to the chagrin of many a trainer who has to wonder what went wrong. It just seems like winning those big races takes a lot out of a horse, and only the great ones can repeat that kind of huge effort over and over. Delta has gone with a little bit of a layoff of a disappointing race two back right here at the Old Waterford, when Seattle Delta checked in sixth in the non-descript Outback Clem Challenge. After a prep in an Ontario grass stake, it’s back to the Mountains again and Delta is looking for a wakeup here.
Second qualifier is Hijacked Ted’s LIVE BY THE SWORD out of his hijacked stable. This is a contest horse, and six of the first seven qualifiers for Saturday’s races are contest horses. So far, though, Old Waterford railbirds are avoiding contest horses like a Hillbilly Hamburger gone bad, as only one of quite a few starters has even managed to hit the board. Live by the Sword is part of that ugly stat, having been off the board and fourth, beaten 15 lengths, last out in the Judge Judge Handicap in week 2727, the first of the renewed contest. LBTS is a stone-cold closer who is cutting back in distance here. As noted in this column before, this 6-year-old son of War Chant was bred by Masterab to be another Allied Assault, but it didn’t quite work out that way. The horse changed barns several times after Masterab gave up on him, and it wasn’t until Hijacked Ted got ahold of him and ran him long on the dirt that the quality of the horse surfaced. He’ll walk out of the gate as usual on Saturday and whether he comes running is anybody’s guess. You know how these deep closers are. They either fire or they don’t.
The aforementioned SLEW O TROUBLE is the fifth qualifier, for contest player Novanora out of his opinora barn. It is a well known fact that training Sim horses can drive you crazy, and Novanora must be scratching his head wondering what has gone wrong with this son of A.P. Indy. Only 25 starts into his career, Slew’s form has taken an unexpected nose dive at the end of his 5yo season and into his 6yo campaign now. After winning a 10-furlong Delaware stake four back in oh-so-easy, lovely front-end controlling fashion, leading by 4 1/2 lengths at the head of the stretch and crusing home by two, Novanora took a shot at the Grade I Topicout Special on DPCD. Slew got his tail kicked that day and hasn’t recovered, running two up-the-track clunkers since. He was a dismal 11th in the Flywaki, and finished behind four other horses he faces again Saturday. Hard to say if the alarm clock is going off before Saturday’s race.
INDISPENSABLE is the sixth qualifier, and is one of the few Sim horses I ever can remember covering for three consecutive races. Unfortunately, our jumping on board coverage-wise has coincided with a downturn in form for this 5yo son of Aptitude who was second in a Grade 3 only three races ago. Since then, he had an unfortunate 4th after a rough trip pace-wise in the oddly run DPCD Classic. A return to form was expected last out in the Flywaki, but Indispensable regressed again, and now displays the declining pattern of four straight receding speed figs. That being said, he cannot be dismissed completely here, because his most recent three wins have come following previous finishes of ninth, ninth and sixth. The horse has shown a pattern of awakening unexpectedly, but it’s hard to back him as the 4-1 co-favorite.
The field after Indispensable really begins to drop off stakes-points wise. Indispensable has 52, while the next qualifier, TOM’S SHINING STAR, has only eight.
Tom’s Shining Star is the second half of the ts1442 entry, coupled with the Buckeye Derby winner, Diamond Head. This horse can run all day, and has hit the board multiple times in non-graded stakes at several marathon distances. At 10.5 furlongs, Saturday’s race is still probably a little short for him. Can he outclose the closers? There are several classy ones in here, including the Rainbow and the other half of this entry, Diamond Head. It’s hard to imagine the pace in here is going to benefit him. Possibly he could trundle up for the show and pick up two elusive points in the contest for Tom.
Next with only four points is Pgbarn3’s SARA CRAFTY, who is getting respect from Charlie Hoops here at 8-1 despite the jump from allowance competition. Judging from the name of the stable, I am guessing that Wassie has entered this speedy son of Saratoga Six as a rabbit for the Rainbow. Kind of funny that Charlie thinks the rabbit has half as good a chance as the Rainbow of winning. A bit odd, really. If Sara Crafty’s class ran out on him in allowance company, how will it hold in a stakes? Sometimes Charlie needs to stop looking at those speed figures.
The penultimate qualifier is RED DAWG out of the Maltese2 stable, who Charlie rates as a rank outsider more than twice the price of the next longest shot. Unfortunately, this one has been off the board in seven straight allowance races and seems a bit too optimistically placed in here. Jockey T. Childress is off to a nice 3-15 start, but could not be blamed for casting a sideways glance toward his agent for arranging this mount.
Bob123g rounds out the field with the 5yo Alydar mare APPALACHIAN STAR BG out of his drpag stable. This gal makes her first start against the boys here Saturday since her career debut some 24 races ago. The form on this one is interesting because she was third in her only career stakes try, after being sent out to a five-length lead by Bob123g. Her other races, she’s shown a tendency to come from behind. At first glance, I thought maybe Bob was sending her out to ruin his brother’s rabbit, but I’m not so sure. Would surprise.
In conclusion, these are some of the funnest kinds of races to handicap in real life because you’re deciding whether or not a horse can turn the tables on another. Most of the time, “just beat these” is a heck of a good angle. If he can beat ’em once, he can beat ’em again. Following that angle, the pick here would be Diamond Head. As stated previously, however, this race is a furlong farther than the Flywaki, and something tells me that race had to be a tough one on Diamond Head. My pick here is for the Rainbow to mow ’em all down in the lane and put Wassie in good shape for a three-peat.