Smackdown Opener at Delaware

The first race on the card for Smackdown at Delaware is race #9. This is a $250,000 Stakes for all horses 4yo and up over a length of ten furlongs on the main track. Despite the regular stakes status this is a very high quality field, at least equal to that found in most graded races. Let’s take a closer look and see if we can find a winner.

1. DRUNKEN CAT – jbfarms – This 5yo horse has been tested by his trainer quite a bit in recent times, travelling a variety of distances, and with quite some success I must add. Significantly for this race best speeds of the past eight outings have come in races very close to the distance of this one. It’s quite clear that he will need to step up a little in overall speed to challenge for outright honours, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the top four finish trend continue.

2. FIVE PUNCH – simsters2 – A stunning run for this 5yo horse three starts ago saw him win a 9 furlong allowance with a mighty impressive speed of 108. That kind of speed repeated here would see him very much in contention, but unfortunately at his last start he failed to maintain his form once tested at the stakes level second time round. This run no doubt will have done no end of good boosting his big race experience, but I get the feeling the competition will be awfully tough to overcome here at Delaware.

3. RAZOR SAL – lenny17 – Unquestionably this horse deserves a stakes chance once again, after showing very consistent form at allowance level. Normally this step up would be fine, but amongst this very high quality field life will be very tough. If this were my own horse however I would certainly continue to persevere with a stakes campaign into the future. The winning ability is clearly there, just not likely to happen in this one.

4. HOLLOW MISSION (GB) – strstable8 – The seven week break this colt has enjoyed certainly must work in his favour heading into such a competitive race. His last outing was a handy win in the STU BARNES Challenge over 9 furlongs, where he made a very strong late charge to snag victory. This is a horse that recently seems to have a solid streak of consistency, and there’s no reason to think that will change. He will need to step back up a little in overall speed this time around, but his allowance run five starts ago at this distance shows he certainly has it in him. Outright contender, no question.

5. HOPAJOOP – harvey – Curiously this colt seems to have gone off the boil a little in his last few outings. After showing great promise four starts ago comfortably carrying allowance form up to stakes level, a graded attempt seemed to perhaps upset his rhythm a little. It is also possible that the travel outside the U.S. to Europe may also have contributed. Being back on familiar soil can only help his cause this time round, so I’d expect improvement, but probably not enough to get him near the front at post time.

6. KABUKI (IRE) – charmer – Despite being a stakes winner at very close to this distance, the odds makers certainly haven’t done this guy many favours, billing him at 15/1. He’s certainly far from the worst of this field, and winning stakes races requires talent of course, but being surrounded by quite a few proven graded runners is going to make things very tough indeed.

7. YEAR OF THE VOTE – catahoula – This horse heads to the gates as the tote favourite, although at 4/1 perhaps not as short as some might have been expecting. There’s no denying class, and this colt clearly oozes it, at a peak of stunning form. I think this will be the one they’ll all be going out to beat but I do detect a slight chink in his armour. The better runs he’s produced of late have all come at just a touch under the length of today’s race, so will that leave him vulnerable at the death? I think a few trainers may have just picked up on this and if they can stay within a length or so heading to the stretch, they might just roll him.

8. KING WELLS HILL – lenny17 – This colt makes his stakes debut here, after some very promising performances at allowance level. It’s difficult to avoid the obvious on this one, and I suspect the trainer already concedes this, but it’s going to be a bit of a tough day at the office for this debutant. Even so, as I say with many horses, the experience certainly can’t hurt his future chances, and for any horse to produce an upset, they have to be entered in the race to begin with.

9. RACING LEOPARD (IRE) – harvey – A stellar performance to win a third allowance race four starts ago saw this colt head to stakes company. Results came instantly with a win in the BLACK EL PRADO Special posting an even faster speed. Next regular stakes was yet another win, showing this guy has plenty to offer at this level. These regular stakes were surrounded by a couple of graded runs in which performance seemed to suffer, however with the regular grading of our race here, this guy should be right at home. The question must be raised as to what effect distance will have, as this will be his longest run to date, and I don’t think it will have much of an impact. In each of his past wins most recently he’s actually continued extending his lead, showing there’s still some left in the tank at the post. At 8/1 I think he offers wonderful value, and have this nagging feeling he may just steal the limelight.

10. SLITHER – peeps6 – To say this colt has been absolutely spectacular in his so far short career would be the understatement of the century. In only thirteen races he’s shot to #34 ranking like a bullet. Already a graded winner and earnings approaching the $400,000 mark, is truly a testament to both the trainer and the exceptionally talented horse. Nine of his thirteen starts have been at a speed of 100 and above, six in a row heading into this event even, a truly awesome achievement. This guy is a winner at this distance, and clearly an outright contender.

11. RAY FINKLE – trifecta – A quick look at the stats show this is where the pace of the race will be decided. I’d expect this guy to go out early, and try to establish as much of a lead as is possible. Whether he has the berries to hold off the charge will only be told in the course of time, but I suspect not, against such a high quality group of combatants. He may however find himself still in the top five by the post, should a few leave there runs a little late.

12. GENERAL K. MAMBO – general – This is another horse that looks to be the pace-setter early on, and looks to have been giving his trainer a few headaches along the way. Result after result in allowances and stakes races, but all at rather modest speeds. He tries out a graded run, ‘just to see what happens’ I’m guessing, lo and behold he runs a blinder of a speed. This then followed by a return to allowances and regular stakes, and a frustrating return to those modest speeds … go figure? Merely my own opinion, but I think this guy could benefit greatly by having a substantial series of runs around the nine furlong mark (give or take 1 furlong). Although likely a member of the early burner club within this race, I fear he will succumb around the 7 ½ furlong mark.

13. SCHOTTZIE II – tihsho – You guessed it, a horse who looks to be the pace-setter early on. The difference with this one however, is a reputation of going on with the job. Going back a couple of races there appeared to be quite a consistent series of races being put together in both stakes and allowances. The shortening up to eight furlongs last time out, didn’t really give him an opportunity to hit top gear, despite finishing second. Returning back out to the preferred distance for this event may just raise a few eyebrows.

14. HURRICANE IVAN – 2die4 – Amazingly, yet another runner who looks to set the pace, however outright speed is likely to be the downfall of this poor guy. He’s very much accustomed to the distance of our race here, but there are just far too many around him with superior outright pace. He may figure in the early shuffle of things, but eventually be simply outgunned.

So what’s going to happen, well what a good question? The outside gates are likely to be going hell for leather early, with each of the pace setters’ looking to dictate, but the fact looks to be that this is not how this race will be won. There are a few runners here with outright raw speed to dominate this race through the stretch, and whilst the early battle is going on, these stalkers will be doing nothing but conserving energy for the final sprint. RACING LEOPARD (IRE) has caught my eye, and as said I have a feeling he might just be the one to take honours. It would be a daft man that places YEAR OF THE VOTE any lower than the place, and the truly spectacular SLITHER storming home for the show.

Good luck all, and may they all return healthy.

Cheers