You Can’t Touch These
This week’s feature race is the sixth running of the $150,000 Grade III Ouchy Nips Special. This year’s edition is dominated by fillies and mares trying to move up in the ranks. And while they all look deserving, only one top twenty runner is here, and few have been able to run the kind of routing speed figure it has always taken to win this race. That makes it a very good race to handicap.
Here is a look at the field:
- Splash and Go (Touch Gold x Mr. Prospector) has finished in the money in 12 of her 14 dirt routes, winning half of them. She has also been in the money in both of her graded efforts. Her last, a close sixth in the seven furlong Super Bargain Challenge, was a disappointment, but a return to a route justifies the co-favoritism for the Shockwave6 (13%) trainee. She should be a bit closer in the early fractions today and that should help.
- The lightly raced filly Leavingonajetplane (Runaway Groom x Devil’s Bag) began her career with three quick wins, but the Urso (13%) trainee found the going tougher when she tried graded company. She ran away from an allowance field of three year olds seven weeks ago and tries graded stakes again. Understandably, she lost to number one rated Swift Kick in the Bingham Stakes, but that one proved to be no match for Daylight T a couple weeks ago. Still, she’s four of eight and improving.
- Wortud (13%) made an almost-last minute nomination of Beta Cat (Miswaki x Storm Cat). Despite her seven for 12 record in dirt routes, her top 25 ranking, her easy win in the ungraded Near Until Freak last time, her excellent jockey, her strong speed figures, and her record of a win and a third in three graded races, she has been assigned morning line odds of 9-1. Go figure.
- Marabou Destiny (Dubai Destination x Summer Squall) started her career with three wins and a graded stakes third as a two year old. But since then, she has only one speed figure greater than 96, and her last two tries in graded company have resulted in just shy of 40 total beaten lengths. Trainer Marabou (11%) is hoping the recent improvements shown in allowance company will continue here.
- Northerly Nicole (Dynaformer x Sunday Silence) showed as a three year old that she could run with older, winning the Commanche Tempest last time and beating half the fields in the Grade II King Classic and the Hollabd House Memorial. A repeat of her classy second in the Grad III Annie Oakley two races back would make this Skirom (16%) trained filly a serious threat here.
- Spinning Nines (Spinning World x Forty Niner) boasts the top speed figures, gets the top jockey who is off to another hot start in 2006, an ace trainer in Gorgeous (26%), and is the morning line co-favorite. The only knock is that her success has all been in sprints, but Spinning World has sired several top routers, so it might not be much of a knock.
- Desfly’s Giant (
- Veteran mare Golden Millenium (Mtoto x Dancing Brave) gets a lot of respect in the morning line as the third choice at 5-1. She does from time to time pop some nice speed figures – her top figure of 114 dominates the field – but only one of her nine wins came in a stakes, and she never finished better than sixth in four graded tries. Daylight T’s earnings per race are almost six times that of the Scotgrey (8%) trained mare.
- Thirteenth ranked Daylight T (Daylami x Majestic Prince) scored an upset win in the Grade I Fair Warning last time, and a repeat of that performance would make her the one to beat here. The Highbreed (9%) trainee has a pattern of alternating good races and bad races, however. Should that continue, expect a bounce. (That sounded just like an economist’s forecast: She will run fast this race, unless she runs slowly.)
- Star of the 42ndStreet (18%) stable, Blessed Realm (Elusive Quality x
Morning line: 1-6-8-9
Timmn’s picks: 6-3-5-9
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