Is the Big A Tuff Enuff?

The good thing about the Sim classic handicap division is that every week, there’s always a tough graded competition to fill.  If you miss your chance, something else is always on the parkway to seek out next.  The same holds true in New York again this week.

One week after Senor Sam(IRE) stalked his way to a victory in the Grade III Maxxed Platinum Plate, twelve seek out another handicap slot over the same surface, in the $125,000 Big A Handicap, a Grade III test over a mile-and-a-sixteenth.  What the Platinum Plate lacked in star quality…this one also lacks in a big headliner to stand up and take notice of.  But it’s a solid dozen, with some familiar 2005 names making a return to graded-stakes company here, and the most noticeable of these is Tuff Enuff, the 2004 Breeders Bowl Classic winner who marks his five-year-old debut here.  But does he have what it takes to keep flying with eagles, or will one of the young turks, like God’s Gift or post-time favorite Seeking A King have other ideas?

Saki Cocktail [Sakhee-Hopoate(AUS), by Redoute’s Choice(AUS)] should be up near the leaders early on, and she’s the lone successful branch of a well-pedigreed tree for trainer shoalsdock.  His dam was well-bred, but less than effective on the track.  Still, the copious amount of Northern Dancer in the lineage (3Dx4Sx5Sx5Dx5D) seems to have clicked here.  He was mediocre his first two grass tries, but upon a switch back to the dirt, he’s improved dramatically, only failing to earn a check in one of twelve starts on dirt.  He kinda hung in the stretch last out in a China stakes outing, but that’s usually his style: hang pretty close early on, wait for the speed to weaken, then take control.  That’s well and good, but in this spot, at first glance, there seem to be too many stalking chiefs and not enough pace-controlling Indians.  He’ll be one of many up close in the early stages, but with just three listed stakes, and one stakes win, on his résumé, and with speed figures that fall near the back of this field, will that be enough to be a factor in his graded debut?

Pony Express [Gone West-Arctic Phone, by Phone Trick] is easily the most experienced among these, with a whopping 49 starts under his belt.  But with just $138,000 or so in career earnings, it’s pretty clear that there’s not a whole lot of strong graded activity under her credentials; in fact, there’s only been one graded race, where he was seventh in the Tally Ho Mile last year.  Nevertheless, trainer ontarget2 has kept him busy on a steady diet of allowance events over the last year or so, and he’s been equally adept on turf and on dirt.  He’s very capable of cracking a 100+ speed figure on either surface, but has just been unable to find a spot that’s been conducive to further career development.  He’s been clear of allowance conditions since last April, but since earlier stakes races have been lacking he’s focused more on higher-level and open allowance starts.  In fact, he’s only tried dirt stakes twice, with no finish better than a fifth back in 2002.  On grass, he’s fared a little better, with a best finish of third, but more recently he’s been a pretty solid allowance horse, earning his checks and his BPs on a relatively steady basis.  He’s capable of being a player on the lead, but recent form has seen more success coming from off the pace.  His figs are pretty good among these, but in this Grade III, it’s likely to be a stern test for class.  It won’t be a terribly fast race up front, but if it’s solid enough, he should try and make a go of it late. 

Sadfly’s Bingo [Sadler’s Wells-Carson Bingo, by Carson City] is the #107 sprinter among older horses, and carries a strong pedigree for sprinting (his dam was a Grade II-winning sprinter).  Trainer onfly sends him over a mile here, and it’s not really a stretch; though he’s a two-time stakes winner going shorter than a mile, they were longer sprints greater than seven panels.  He’s 2-for-4 at a mile, including a third in a stakes two back, and though he’s 0-for-1 at this distance, in that one effort he was a game third in stakes company.  He likes to sit pretty close to the front, but is capable of enough tactical speed to surprise foes, and in a race with more stalkers than flat-out speed, he should move up.  His one try at graded level left him beaten while sprinting, but with a bit of stakes experience already under his belt, the step back to a Grade III race shouldn’t be too heady.  His 109 last out is the best last-time-out fig in the field, but it should be noted that it came at seven-and-a-half furlongs, arguably his most favored distance, and that he lost the lead there in deep stretch.  He’ll be up close again, but is likely going to need something else held in reserve in the final furlong here.

Jivago [A.P. Indy-Foolish Games, by Danehill] has quite a few strikes in his favor.  He’s got some regal bloodlines in him; he’s got a pair of solid allowance races over the surface; and he’s lightly raced.  Trained by mysterycat, he’s done very well for himself since coming off the grass, never finishing worse than fifth on the dirt.  His pedigree is sharp: his dam was always brilliant in the morning, smoking her cigarettes and talking over coffee, and winning eight times, including a stakes, on grass.  He’s got two wins at this distance, and has prepped for this with a pair of strong allowance efforts over the track.  In both, he hung very close to the pace; two back, he managed to stretch out to a four-length margin before fading and gritting out a win by a long neck.  Last out, he proved he was the one who needed the I Need A Race Allowance, when he faded late going a mile and was a tired, soundly-beaten second.  He’s 0-for-2 at stakes-level while earning a paycheck both times, and he’s earned some very solid figs, particularly when clearing his NW4x two back, when he received a 108 for sheer grit.  He’s got a strong future ahead of him at 4, it would appear, and while some segments of this field are very intimidating, there are other segments that shouldn’t unnerve him; he’ll stick very close to the front end, but that’s at his peril.

Musique Toujours [A.P. Indy-Pharprospect, by Mr. Prospector] shares something in common with the California-based horse of the same name: the need to prove themselves on the big stage.  You remember Musique Toujours, dontcha?  He stunned last winter’s edition of the Sunshine Millions Classic at 70-1.  This Musique Toujours isn’t so much a “stunning upset” type, but this pedroza trainee has something to prove in his graded stakes debut here.  The pedigree is blue, as he’s out of a Grade III winner, and he’s a half to the stakes winning mare Brave Vixen.  But the colt’s been taking his own sweet time to round into form; it took him seven tries to break his maiden, and another thirteen starts to clear his allowance conditions.  Still, his entry into stakes-level competition has been pretty decent, with a pair of thirds in his first two open-company attempts (he was an outrun ninth in the restricted cavalcade Cup four back).  He has shown remarkable range, with some very good success at being the main speed, being a stalker and being a closer; recent form suggests he’ll come from off the pace here, and maybe not having a fast-and-furious leader to chase could eventually work into his favor.  His figs have finally cracked the century mark with quite a bit of consistency, but is he ready for the big time?  A year ago this week, his namesake was…

God’s Gift [Fusaichi Pegasus-Fat Cat, by Storm Cat] is a colt who has shown flashes of brilliance as well as flashes of heartache for trainer lulu.  He started off his career by winning six of his first nine starts, including the Bowing Under Quest Stakes and the No Reception SQ Stakes, in which he led with conviction early and held on with determination late, earning a 110 for the wire-to-wire triumph.  He also was a game third in last year’s Buckeye Derby, tiring late but not missing by a whole lot.  But after the No Reception SQ, he hit a wall—if it had been literal, it would have explained the sudden and immediate form tail-off more deftly.  As it happened, he tired badly in his first start against his elders in the Grade III Insulin, and while he had some early pressure to apply in both the Middle Gournd Mile and the Windy City Gold Cup, he was never truly a factor.  Following another poor effort in a listed stakes, he was removed back to allowance-level, and has since won two in a row, and in rather impressive fashion.  He’s apparently recovered his spark, and has fired a 104 and 108, respectfully, on his comeback attempts.  He’ll likely be a main source of speed here once again, and the question is one of rejuvenation: has he recovered and matured enough from his midsummer belly flop?  There’s going to be a large number of tactical stalkers here, a lot of pressure for a colt who’s been at his best as a one-man show on the lead.  His speed has been able to hold up going a distance of ground, but there are limits, and one of those limits is distance and the other is pressure.  Can he handle both once again?

Forbidden Treasure [Empire Maker-Sunken Treasure, by Kingmambo] represents one of the top Sim trainers, billgulch, and this colt seems to have a very big “A” game.  He has a truly blueblood pedigree, as the “dam” here was a three-time Grade I winner on the lawn, and he himself is a Grade III winner from the Bluegrass Derby trail in 2005.  Last out, he captured that I Need A Race Allowance over a tiring Jivago, his first win off a 17-week vacation, meriting a pretty nice 103 fig in the process.  If it seems like someone here is a little less than rapturous over that speed figure, it’s because it was just his third time cracking 100 in his career (he didn’t manage that when winning that Grade III, ironically).  He’s certainly capable on either surface, given his pedigree and his experience on grass, and his comeback effort was almost effortless in how it played out, from well off the pace.  Such a style fits in well here, where the pace should be pretty easygoing, and he did need the race, after all.  He’s ranked in the Top 100 of the division, gets a strong jockey here, and should improve as he stretches out.  There’s room for growth here, but he’ll need to fast-track his improvement here against some pretty sturdy competition.

Seeking A King [Seeking The Gold x Damascus] is the favorite, representing the barn of ultimate, and his back class supports this support, frankly; if you can run a 114 against allowance company in California, and can continue your development over a campaign marked by a degree of both injury and vacation—he needed six months off following that allowance effort—you should be favored.  And even on recent form, he still fits here snugly.  Following the extended break, he returned really none the worse for the wear and tear.  He repeated the allowance victory in California, running only three-fifths slower than the big win, even though he only received a 105 for it, and then he took the plunge into stakes company, with a second followed by a win in New Jersey at this distance.  He spent the rest of the year trying to recapture the magic, with only sporadic success.  Last out, he was a hard-charging second at a mile; an added sixteenth should be very little trouble here, though it appears the mile is his favorite distance.  The late stretch kick needs to be fine-tuned here, as, with not a whole lot of pace here, it’ll likely come in handy.  The 108 last out is pretty sharp, and he’s capable of higher numbers, but there’s other, even higher, back class to be found; still, keep an eye on him.

Tuff Enuff [Chester House-Bridget Jones, by Octoganal(NZ)] has that “higher” back class.  You would, too, if you won—watch me as I consult the résumé—the Breeders Bowl Classic, the Windy City Gold Cup, the Shiny Gem Stakes, the Corkscrew Stakes, and the Wooden Indian Stakes, not to mention the Middle Jewel Stakes and the New Yorker Stakes, and all that in a single calendar year, 2004.  *phew*  Not only were those big events feathers in his cap, the way he managed to win these things was just as impressive.  He closed from the back of the field, but was never in a neighboring country when he started running.  He earned a 117 in the Windy City, and a 120 when second in the Travelers that summer of ’04; while the New Yorker was a 104, he won it over a full field going away, by 8.  2004 was a remarkable year.  Then…*ahem*…came 2005.  It took until a listed stakes race last August for him to get his first win of the year, and it wasn’t until his last effort that he showed the form that won him a plethora of stakes at 3.  Last out, he stalked the pace, took over late, and drew off to win the Grade III Gravestone Handicap by two, earning a 105.  Trainer ladysiera1 has been certainly very patient with this colt; might this be the year in which he returns to life and starts scaring people off again with his efficiency?  He should come from off the pace here again, and might not be as close to the action as he was last time out.  He’s a factor, and you know what they say about sleeping giants.

Dry Well [Machiavellian x Woodman] makes for a most fascinating entrant for trainer mikb.  This four-year-old filly has only one start, a gate-to-wire maiden sprint win in which, in just the span of five furlongs, she opened up a five-length lead before being eased under the wire two-and-a-half lengths in front.  It was a stellar performance, let there be no mistake.  But her presence here is a mystery.  Consider the following: she’s going three-and-a-half furlongs longer in her second start.  She’s a filly starting against colts in just her second time out.  She’s bypassing a Grade III race for fillies and mares in Louisiana (which only drew ten) at a mile this weekend.  Talk about ambition.  But, that said, she certainly has a lot of potential yet to be tapped.  She’s very well-bred.  She has a ton of speed, and might be hiding more heretofore-unknown abilities under that one start.  And that maiden win couldn’t have been more impressive.  Nevertheless, the speed she has stands a very good chance of being negated by the other speed in the field, and she’ll likely be very vulnerable here to her stalking competition as well.  Do not be surprised, however, if she blossoms into something special, turf or dirt, sprinting or routing, in the filly division down the line in ’05.

Pegasus’ Sword G [Crusader Sword-Flying Spectacle G, by Fusaichi Pegasus] represents pgpg, and should be up close early.  He finally cracked the 100 barrier last out when he just held on to an allowance win in Idaho, and it’s emblematic of his grit and fortitude; it also marked his second straight victory at the allowance level, both times eking out narrow wins.  Still, the recent form notwithstanding, there’s a question of class versus stakes-level competition, seeing as he hasn’t won a stakes race since he was 2.  The mile seems more his speed, and though he just recently broke 100 in his figs, his average has held constant around the high 90s.  Those numbers don’t quite measure up to the middle and high-100s so many of the others have shown themselves capable of, and it’s going to be awfully crowded sitting just off the lead and waiting for the pace to collapse.  The 103, though, should bode well for further development.

Tricky Tony [Minds Music x Crafty Prospector] draws an outside post for trainer skirom, and he owns some back class of his own.  He popped a 124 speed fig at 3 when he captured the Grade II Flat Land Derby, which was remarkable, and yet not a fluke, as he spent the rest of his three-year-old campaign trying to recapture the glory.  Speed figs of 114 and later 118 are no 124, but they were still strong numbers nonetheless, and they proved to be the high-water marks on his career.  In last year’s four-year-old campaign, he didn’t come that close to races like those, but still managed to be nosed out in the Grade III Fus Gonner last spring.  Back class, though, only carries so far, as he was injured late last year, being distanced in a stakes in Oklahoma at this distance.  Since then, it’s been a long, slow recovery, and his 2006 debut was just OK, showing some belated closing kick when fifth in an Illinois allowance.  He’ll likely be coming from off the pace here, and really, his numbers on average last year weren’t too bad.  But since the injury, he’s not been close to being his former self, and could be in for an uphill battle against some heavy artillery in this spot.

My selections:

1. Jivago
2. Forbidden Treasure
3. Tuff Enough
4. God’s Gift
5. Seeking A King

Good luck, and happy racing.