It’s a unique situation this weekend. While the real New Yorkers brave the cold in the Grade III Aqueduct Handicap this weekend, the Sim Nu Yawkas focus their attentions on a pretty sturdy race in the handicap division. It’s the Grade III Maxxed Platinum Plate Handicap, a $125,000 stakes race for older horses four-years-old and up going a mile-and-an-eighth over a fast track. The field is filled with thirteen classic division hopefuls, including four of the top 50 Sim handicap stalwarts, of varying degrees of ability.
Boomtown Boy [Sadler’s Wells x Gone West], for trainer leestroyer, draws the rail here, and that shouldn’t bother him too much. What might be a little bothersome, though, is the Jekyll-&-Hyde nature of this colt. He started out 2005 on a tear, winning four races, including the Grade III Mohammed Ali and the Grade II Insulin, and to that impressive, decisive win in the Insulin, he had not failed to pick up a check in each start for 2005. But since the Insulin, in which he rallied from nine lengths back to score a strong four-length win, his career momentum has stopped cold. In three stakes appearances since then—a listed, a Grade I on DelPenn’s Champions Day, and the Grade II Lewis & Clark—he has been no better than eighth, been beaten a combined 46 lengths, and has only managed to reach a high speed fig of a 94. Compare that to the six races previous, where each fig was over 100, peaking with a 111 in Iowa, and you can see the difference. It’s really folly to discount a horse with enough back class to light up Walla Walla, but something put this well-bred horse into a real funk, and is this the correct spot to snap out of it? His late run has been ineffectual since the summertime, but that’s the running approach he sincerely prefers. This appears to be a rather paceless affair, with no one showing enough consistency on the front end to break away from the pack; what will this do to his chances? Stay tuned.
Leaky Tap [Pleasant Tap x Secretariat] represents the carolover barn, and where most runners have just emerged from hibernation, this one has already hit the ground running in ’06, with a perfect stalking trip utilized to capture an Oregon stakes two weeks ago. It was a sparkling effort, and it gave this Grade III winner a boost to start a new year with. Now, he tries graded foes, and likely could be the only speed here to control the pace. The concern should be twofold: can he take control early and try to hold off the stretch-running horses to earn his first graded win in three years, and is wheeling back on just two weeks of rest a particularly good idea? The pace comes up light, but this horse is lightly raced, with 8 starts in 2005 and only one in 2004, so conditioning should be less relevant here. He may not be capable of turning in a 118 anymore, but his numbers are very solid among these. If he shakes loose, he’s a factor.
Powdersnow(IRE) [Montjeu(IRE) x Miswaki] enters this for trainer bm3 under a two-race winning streak, including a two-length triumph last out…two weeks ago. The off-the-pace allowance victory was a solid fig of 96, but he needs to get back to the strong efforts he had in winning his last stakes race, in 2003. Since returning to a come-from-nowhere style, he’s reversed his form a bit, and even as the glory days are still somewhat in the rearview mirror, the recent form gives him a creditable shot in this spot. He’s still capable of firing, if you trust the 105 he popped in his 2005 finale, but this is a not-inconsiderable climb up into graded company from an open allowance (or even a restricted allowance, as his last was, giving the 96 a bit of an asterisk). If the pace is slow to develop, or a bit soft, his kick won’t have as much impact, and he needs to be well in the back for his best; a question mark at a higher level.
Highly Evolved [Regentair x Tropular(GB)] represents the barn of thundrjsne, and this six-year-old has evolved beyond his humble pedigree, so much so in the trainer’s opinion that he makes his stakes debut in this Grade III. It’s an ambitious approach, and it’s unclear whether he’s up to the challenge based on the past performances (and the morning line, sending this horse off at 24-1). He makes his ’06 debut well-rested; it’s hard not to be when you’ve run just eight times over two years. Still eligible for a fourth-level allowance, he comes in on a bit of a streak, having put the pieces together at last for a two-race winning streak with improving speed numbers to show for it. Both allowances were won from off the pace, and both achieved numbers into the mid-90s for this horse. But it should still be noted that all four wins have come at middle distances, between seven-and-a-half and eight-and-a-half furlongs, and when he’s been asked to run nine furlongs or more, he’s been 0-for-2 lifetime. Judging by a preference to close from well behind, this distance change shouldn’t adversely affect his potential strategy for this, but even though this one’s been kept a little bit under wraps since 2003, he’s a uncertainty based on class, and a Grade III is a more challenging task than an ordinary listed stakes to make an entrance versus better.
Clear Wood [Sadler’s Wells x Seeking The Gold] is a well-bred four-year-old for trainer colonelbr3, and is nothing if not hearty for his trainer. He came into last summer’s Grade II Abraham Lincoln as a three-year-old with just a maiden win and an entry-level allowance victory on his résumé; while he went off at 73-1 and finished a thrashed eleventh, he gleaned a ton of experience from that effort, and for the rest of the year he was a fair campaigner, finally clearing his last allowance condition New Year’s Eve with a hard-fought last dash to cinch a quarter-length win with a speed figure of 106. He’s 0-for-2 in stakes company, but he’s blossomed into a possible threat to do some damage versus the Sim’s handicap division in 2006. But that’s yet to come; as for here, he’s coming in off a career-high fig, and he’s 3-for-4 lifetime at this distance. The sour note could be his running style. He’s a very deep closer, but the pace doesn’t have much pace to propel it, which ordinarily doesn’t bode all that well for deep closers who rely on something of a swift pace up front to wear down resistance. Nevertheless, clearly, the horse is currently in top form, and has the second-highest last-out speed figure here, and should be respected as a colt about to come into his own.
Solar Song [Deputy Minister x Nureyev] comes in the #20 handicap horse on dirt for squirrel4, but on form, he’s the obvious 3-1 chalk. It was a very riveting 2005 for this talented four-year-old. Last year, he swept the NWRC’s version of the Triple Crown in a series of restricted races, and he also took their restricted Cavalcade Cup before coming out and easily dominating the field in the Grade I Buckpasser Stakes, controlling the field while winning as the rider pleased, and meriting a 112 for the performance. Even though he “bounced” last out, finishing a belated third in the Grade I DelPenn’s Topicount Special to end the year, he’s still a late threat to be reckoned with, and riding high on top of his form cycle in time for his four-year-old debut. Will the pace be there for that patented late dash to have its best impact? It might not matter as much, but if it’s a soft one, that could be one more challenge to be dealt with for this talented horse.
Peyresurde [Sadler’s Wells-Ibardin NC, by Broad Brush] is another four-year-old, here, for sansebas, that seems ready to come out strong in 2006. He’s solidly bred to run a long way, and usually this is his preferred tactic during races. He’s a Grade II winner from last spring’s Derby trail, but could never carry his success over to the top echelon of races, finishing next-to-last in the Derby. Arguably, he was a bit overcooked on the trail, with five races in a nine-week span between his Tesio win and his sixth in the Manilla Chief(IRE) Stakes two weeks after the New Yorker. But after a series of races on the grass, this colt began to evolve quickly coming back to the dirt: between October 22 and Christmas Eve, he’s been consistent, with three wins in five starts, including two stakes triumphs. Each race in that span resulted in speed figs over 100, and despite the breakneck pace of his sophomore campaign—eighteen starts!—he’s come around to become a solid horse entering his 2006 debut. His furious rally in the Grade III Gravestone came much too late last out, but he joins the large number of horses here who would appreciate a solid pace to unleash their late kicks on in the stretch. So, here, it’s a question of pace, and also fitness—can starting so frequently, almost every two to three weeks, be good for his form here?
Go For Dyna [Dynaformer x Cape Town] has a rare opportunity here for trainer gowand9. Throughout the article, I’ve been pointing out that there’s really only a couple of horses who have shown much interest in playing a role in the pace scenario. This four-year-old is one of the very few. He’s quite capable at taking a running start on his unsuspecting opponents; when leading through the opening half-mile of so, he is 4-for-8, and this includes one new Mexico stakes in which he opened up a remarkable thirteen-length lead in a twelve-furlong race before wilting and clinging desperately to a two-length win. Following that one, in Idaho, he was so dominating that he opened up an eight-length lead alone in another marathon stakes and cruised home much the best by seven. It’s possible for him to go out chugging along in his own private Idaho uncontested, but he’s not been able to do that lately. Last out, he was molded into another come-from-behind colt when he charged down the lane late to just miss in a California allowance. It shows versatility, and it came up a strong 103, but he’s not been able to recapture the form from earlier in 2005; indeed, the Idaho race on June 25 was his last win. Returning to his usual form may yet lie on his ability to return to the front end and trying to dictate a reasonable pace. He’s talented enough to seize the reins, but hasn’t been able to translate that into strong results; this one’s likely better when leading than trailing, and here, there’s too many others coming from behind who’ve been stronger at it lately.
Sadler’s Given [Point Given-Xylocaine, by Sadler’s Wells] is, at 31-1, one of the two longest prices on the morning line. Trainer win7933 has been working overtime trying to meld this five-year-old into a major player, and success has been elusive. His last win came in his final start of 2004, in a low-level point-allowance for his previous trainer, and he’s still eligible for a NW3X race. Many of his 2005 allowance starts were in higher conditions than he’s logically suited for at present, and the results and speed figures reflect that, hitting the board once with speed figures usually averaging into the low-90s. This is his first try going beyond a mile-and-a-sixteenth, and this is also only his second try versus stakes company in his career (last out, was an even, outbid eighth in Oregon a couple of weeks ago). He’ll like to have a late charge here, but it’s looking like a particularly arduous task for him at this stage. It’s quite possible, though, for this one to develop this year into a solid sprinter, which is where much of his recent races lie, so look for him down the line turning back in distance.
Senor Sam(IRE) [Black Sam Bellamy(IRE) x El Gran Senor] would at first glance be suited on pedigree for grass racing. But that’s not quite the case with this roberto trainee. He’s been more solid trying dirt routes, and this four-year-old colt is another who might lope much closer to the pace than some of these. He’s been at his best stalking, winning a Maine allowance three back with authority doing just that. He handled grass and class nicely when he was placed too close to a strong early lead in his only grass start, a fading seventh in the Haw Haw Derby last fall, but has been equally adept closing ground in middle-distance routes from a close-up view, sticking around long enough to be in the thick of things a number of times in his sophomore campaign. He’s cleared all his allowance conditions nicely, but there’s questions regarding his ability to run well going this far. He’s hit the board each dirt try going nine panels or longer, but has hung a couple of times after reaching the lead, so he’ll need to stay just a bit better for a solid shot here. Still, this one could still be a good miler yet, on either surface.
Leave The Reef [Deputy Minister x Mill Reef] is the top-ranked handicap horse here for trainer cjt, ranked #13 in the classic division. But this two-time graded winner has struggled a bit since winning the Grade III Jerzey City Handicap in June. This hard-charging horse has been in the mix with his kick, but has been falling more than a bit short at times. Though he won a Grade I last year in Arkansas, he’s foundered a bit in other Grade I events: a strong second in Arizona was followed by a sixth in Delaware and a seventh over this track, and while each time he was running quickly down the lane, he hasn’t been able to rev his engines enough to close the deal when it’s counted. His figs have backtracked into the high-90s for the most part, too, since his last win in June. And the most perplexing thing is that he has shown signs of life in most every start—he’s just finished a day late and a peppermint candy short. The six-week rest between starts should have provided enough room to refocus, and against a field such as this, he doesn’t have to be Silky Sullivan, necessarily. But he does have to stick close to his form, maybe stay more in the game than he’s used to, and a strong pace might aid his cause. Plus, there’s always that back-class factor to concern oneself with, considering that he’s a Grade I winner versus a Grade III field.
Grand Tycoon [Grand Slam x Easy Goer] runs under the silks of rbaze3, and he hit his best stride last summer with a string of solid performances, most notably in the California slop, running a 109 when capturing the Grade III Hoover. He followed that up with a 109 fig in the Grade I It’s My Birthday And I’ll Cry If I Want To Stakes and a 103 in the Grade I Travelers, and while they wound up a fourth and a third, respectively, they were solid efforts that propelled him into the top flight of three-year-old colts. He hasn’t won since the Hoover, and he would sincerely appreciate some Sim precip in New York, which he’s not likely to get, but the eleven-week break will be very useful after such a grueling campaign. His numbers remain pretty strong here, and his running style enables him to come late with a solid stretch run. Trouble is, this field is back-loaded with such a run and getting a head start on some of the more expert closers here would truly give him a leg up. Class and distance are very much non-issues here, as well, since he ran with the best of his crop last year, and seemed to get better as the distances increased in that classic division. The new four-year-olds making debuts against their elders (as this one is—his first try facing anyone older than 3) should be watched carefully in spots like this.
Warlock Too [Pulpit x Saint Ballado] draws an outside post for trainer invisible. Now, I must make a full confession: I train Warlock Too, for I am invisible. Normally, I’d never think of writing up my own horse in a stakes, because of a conflict of interest. But I signed on to write up the race Monday, entered Tuesday, and failed to make the connection between the two until Wednesday. So, here I am. But it’s all good—I love my horse, but he is, let’s face it, a wee bit outclassed by these. I entered him here because I wanted to ship him over to the American division, where dirt horses have more opportunities, in theory, and the distance is up his alley, particularly since he’ll try to make a late run at them. (I also didn’t want to perhaps lose a shot at BP while seeking out my first graded black-type result, but that’s me being me for ya…) I claimed him for $35K last year, and I think it was a pretty nice pick-up for me; he’s stakes-placed (in his debut for my barn) and has shown signs of maturity and ability throughout his career. He mild a mild allowance rally last time finishing seventh, but he did score a nice starter win two back going a mile-and-a-quarter, with a fig that was reasonable, if not stellar. I expect he’ll try to make a go of it in the stretch, but at 31-1, I am ready to concede he’s not quite at this level…yet(?).
My selections (my horse is ineligible, not that it would have mattered, truthfully):
- Solar Song
- Clear Wood
- Boomtown Boy
- Grand Tycoon
- Leave The Reef
Good luck, happy racing, and may there be no conflict in your interest. *grin*