Nebraska Learns to Speak Gaelic
There probably isn’t a whole lot of call for track announcers in Nebraska to be conversant in Old Gaelic, but come Saturday, the race-caller will likely need his brogue out and tuned up because a promising young colt named Maol Dhomhnaigh (which roughly translates to “Devout of the Church”) will headline the featured race in Nebraska, The Individual Pillow(IRE) Challenge Stakes, a seven furlong tilt for all three year olds on the turf course, which is forecast to be firm, for a total purse of $45,000.
The horses by Post Position:
PP 1 – Hard Rock (Roar x Capote x Theatrical(IRE)) is a hard-finishing stalker who is coming back to the ungraded stakes level at which he was thriving until a very disappointing race last time out, when he moved up to not only graded class, but to a Grade I affair. Although he has very similar speed numbers to most of the field here (except the favorite), I like the value here with the move back down to overnight stakes, along with solid veteran trainer in gcphantom (15.5%). 7/1 seems a bit high for this contender, and although I wouldn’t pick him to win, I think he’s a solid place bet. With a fast pace (a good probability) here, Hard Rock should be able to pass several horses in deep stretch and get a good piece of the pie.
PP 2 – Benevolent (Exchange Rate x Commendable x Ten Gold Pots), a 6/1 shot from the onecoolcat (7%) barn, has been on a steady improvement roll each time out since he discovered the grass four races ago. In those four outings he’s gone 2-1-1 after being winless in his first four races. Plus each of the last three races have been a better speed figure than the race before it. That said, he’ll have some difficulty bringing his performance to the level necessary to beat the favorite. Nevertheless, look for yet another improvement, and if he doesn’t get caught up in a pace war early, look for him to hang on to a piece of the purse.
PP 3 – Sound O Thunder (Phone Trick x Seattle Slew x Sky Classic), bred and trained by irishgal (7.4%) is another of the horses in this field with a liking for the early lead, high 70s – low 80s speeds, and limited exposure to as solid a field as this one. Despite some nice places the last couple of races, this colt will have to show a nice improvement to fight through the early speed and hang on. He tends to fade when pressed. Definitely a contender here, but he’ll have to show me some stronger finishes before he gets my money.
PP 4 – Mr. Kirby (High Yield x Forty Niner x Mr. Prospector), a lightly raced colt from the golong (14.2%) barn, also has some holes in his game that need to be addressed. He’s done well at very short sprints (like a win at 5.5f in a stakes two races back), but had trouble stretching it out some (dead last at 8.5 last time out in another ungraded stakes). But while he does have ample room and demonstrated ability to improve on his last race, the competition seems pretty tough to do it here. I think this horse, with the sprinter-to-die-for pedigree, will be a force later in the season, but for now may be playing catch-up.
PP 5 – Maol Dhomhnaigh(IRE) (Giant’s Causeway(IRE) x Mr. Greeley x Romeo) comes in from the veteran (and very successful) barn itch2 (17.1% and 100 wins) with credentials to make a worthy favorite: He’s got a 4-0-1 record in 5 lifetime starts, has a jock with a 23% win mark so far this season, and is coming off of a win where he racked up a 96 speed fig, best in the field. In fact, he holds the top THREE speed figures in this field despite only having 5 lifetime starts. He even has some tactical speed, able to lay a bit off the leader when necessary. The only question may be in the fact that he hasn’t raced against as many starters of this quality before. But barring a bounce from his last race, look for this youngster to take the next step in what looks like a huge career.
PP 6 – Flower of Scotland (One Cool Cat x Forty Niner x Seattle Slew) from the blacksoxuk (5%) stable, is the veteran of this bunch, lining up for his 10th start. He’s got an impressive 4-1-1 record in those 9 starts, and he’s had success in ungraded stakes (he’s won 3, between 5.5 and 6 furlongs). He’s definitely solid, but questions remain: Is he fast enough to get beyond the 82 speed figure mark (he’s matched it twice)? Can he get 7 furlongs with a fast pace (his two longest efforts, both 6.5, were 8th and 4th place finishes)? Definitely a wildcard here, but I’m thinking the pace might be too hot for him.
PP 7 – Maxwell (Stroll x Nureyev x Mr. Prospector), a viperthree (8.6%) trainee, is on the outside, and has the usual set of credentials and questions for this group: Has shown he can hit the mid-80s, but pace questions abound. Also, he’s only had one foray into stakes, which was a GIII, with miserable result: A last place finish and a 67 speed fig in a 9 f route. On the upside, he does have some success at long sprints, and he is the closest there is in this field to a stone closer. With a trouble free trip, a hot pace, and the race of his life, he may well cash a check, flying down the stretch at the end.
My choices:
1) Maol Dhomhnaigh – We may be witnessing the next stage in a superstar simmer.
2) Hard Rock – The step back down to comfort level helps here.
3) Benevolent – Will race with the leaders, then may hang on for the show.