Bit of an Upset in Japan Stakes Race
The NORHTERN LIGHT Stakes
A mile and one half on Fast Dirt
$95,000
All Horses, 4 years old and up
Standing along the rail at the track in Japan we are getting set to run down the NORTHERN LIGHT Stakes Race named for Stakes winner Northern Light who is still standing at stud at age 15. This mile and a half $95,000 Stakes race looks to be lightning fast as the weather is cooperating. We’ve got a nicely matched field with a variety of styles and ages so let’s take a look:
1 – SKUNKANISI(IRE) ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 5/1 Redflag1 8.9% V.Gray 0% 100.9 93.2 79
This six year old Irish bred by sire Kalanisi started off last year red hot but seemed to slow as the year went on. His last two races he has finished a total of nearly 45 lengths behind the winner. You have to wonder if it is time for SKUNKANISI to head back to allowance circuit. Granted before those last two, he did get a win and a second in small field stakes but maybe he is on the down side in his sixth year. Hopefully he will prove me wrong here.
| 2 – LICKITY SPLIT | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/1 | Ojcbets | 21.8% | G.Arnold | 21% | 99.7 | 95.1 | 247 |
This five year old Woodman horse is about as consistent as they come. In his past eight races, there is only a 5 point variance in his top to bottom Speed Figure. He had 10 wins last year though they were all in allowance races. His lone Stakes last year was two back and he finished in the middle of the pack. I’m not sure that mid to high 90’s is going to win this race which may leave LICKETY SPLIT fighting to make the board. Jockey Arnold has done well so far this year and will be pushing him on down the stretch.
| 3 – WOODEN STUD | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/1 | Tazdevil | 14.4% | B.Waldo | 33% | 103.3 | 97.5 | 61 |
This will be the 64th outing for this eight year old stud and he must be looking forward to retirement. With results like the EL ANT CAP Stakes last time out he may have to wait awhile to start relaxing and visiting with the ladies. He has three wins in the past five and can still hit the century mark speed-wise on a good day. Young Jockey Waldo is hot so far this year, winning a third of his races and would like to keep that going. Watch out for this old horse to compete here.
| 4 – WESTERN QUEST | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/2 | Mizunomp14 | 26.1% | K.Ledwith | 22% | 103.7 | 98.7 | 75 |
I’m surprised that this four year old colt by Rainbow Quest out of Many Launch isn’t getting more respect by the Morning Line and Yoss. He didn’t do well in the muck last time out but before that ran three straight of 102 SPF or better with two seconds and a win. He really came on last year and may be just reaching his peak. Trainer Muzunomp14 and jockey Ledwith both know how to bring home winners and that combination along with WESTERN QUEST may be enough to beat this field.
| 5 – ROYFLY’S DUBAI | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/1 | dowfly | 13.5% | B.VanHouten | 11% | 103.4 | 97.2 | 348 |
This four year old Dubai Destination out of Granny Z colt has been yo-yoing between good and fair his past four outings and if that holds true to form this should be a good race. He’s run less than a quarter of the races that WOODEN STUD has run and is still looking for his personality on the track. He seems to like this distance pretty well and trainer Dowfly hopes that this is where he is going to stay. ROYFLY’S DUBAI could make his life a lot easier with a win here.
| 6 – K’S ABBUNDANZA | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/2 | Kronus | 33.7% | A.Hudson | 12% | 100.4 | 96.4 | 346 |
Another late arriving A.P.Indy offspring that is making his first foray into the Stakes Circuit. The four year old handled himself very well in allowances last year winning half of the eight races and never finishing below 3rd. You never know when they make that jump to the next level but I think this colt is ready. Trainer Kronus had and unbelievable 33% win percentage last year with this stable so he certainly knows something about where to place his horses. If he believes in this colt, so do I.
Morning Line = 2-3-5-4
Yoss Tipsheet = 2-6-5-3
Paz Picks = 4-6-5-3
A really even race spread among all ages, I like WOODEN STUD to finish fourth in his 64th race. ROYFLY’S DUBAI is on the up end of the yo-yo but will only find third place this week. A couple of strong four year olds will fight it out down the stretch but I think that WESTERN QUEST will be able to barely hold off a hard charging K’S ABBUNDANZA to hold on for the win by a neck.
Good luck to all runners!
Paz