Tough Texas Turf Try

Thirteen fillies will try the Texas grass in Saturday’s sixth running of the $150,000 Grade III Broadside Stakes.  The race is very tough to predict, with up and comers like Smeaton trying a new surface and top 15 fillies like Takethecar and Benefactress trying to maintain their rankings, and also features a showdown between two Super Stable entries.

Here is a look at the field:

1. The oddsmakers have declared Germanic Blueprint (Perugino x Deposit Ticket) the longest shot in the race.  Out of the RedBirdUK (3%) barn, she does have a graded win at seven furlongs three and a half months ago.  Her top speed figure of 76 explains the long odds.

2. Takethecar (Stroll x Rainbow Quest) was overmatched in the Storm Dog Handicap and the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly, but finds a softer field here and maintains her number 11 ranking.  A return to the form she had in her second place finish in the Grade I G.S.R. Diamond might be enough to win for the OnTarget2 (11%) trained filly.

3. Diesel Teddy T (Diesis x Mr. Prospector) looked like she was developing into a nice stalker when she won the The Seventh Heaven Challenge against a small field, but the Shanx (10%) trained filly has been fading in more recent races.  Her lone route try was a disappointment.

4. Veteran trainer HornedFrog (17%) trains Benefactress (Generous x Seeking the Gold).  Benefactress has five wins in seven starts.  Her last was a slow win against a weak field and she finished behind Takethecar in the G.S.R., but she owns a 90 speed figure and proven ability at the distance and surface.  A late runner with an excellent chance to get up in time.

5. Smeaton (Dehere x Seeking The Gold) is the morning line pick at 4-1.  Trainer Tina (15%) has guided her to four wins in eight starts, a field best 92 speed figure, and two stakes wins at a route.  Tries a graded event and turf for the first time today.  Dehere has had limited success as a turf sire in the sim, but this is not the strongest graded stakes field you will find.  Enough questions that I will pick against her as the chalk, but you must respect her.

6. Sanatarium (14%) made a not-quite last minute entry of Inflection (Pivotal x Storm Cat).  Inflection has been in the money in all four of her starts, but takes a large jump in class and tries two turns for the first time.  She will try to steal this on the front end.

7. Top jockey Chris Shoemaker opts for Super13’s (15%) Cannot Comply (Rahy x Kingmambo).  Cannot Comply is looking for her fourth straight eight furlong turf stakes win, and while this is her debut in graded company, the five for seven record makes her look tough here.  She will be sitting just off the lead; look for Shoemaker to make a timely move.

8. Speaking of jockeys, former Dragnet producer Jack Webb is off to a great 2006 start with eight wins in 28 mounts.  Webb opts for SlipKnot22’s (14%) Blackeyed Peace (Peace Rules x Sadler’s Wells).  Like Cannot Comply, she runs near the front and has shown the ability to win turf stakes at a mile.  She is also making her graded debut and also looks like a major player.

9. The appearance of Pressure Drop (Galileo x Irish River) pits one Super stable against another.  Super14 (22%) holds the edge in winning percentage.  Pressure Drop beat Takethecar and Maeve’s Causeway last time in The Storm Dog.  She’s three for six and the experience in the last may well give her a chance to finish in front of her almost-stablemate here. Her best races have come while sitting just behind the leaders.

10. The SGB (11%) barn is nearing the 1,000 race mark.  Iron Avatar (Perfect Soul x Gone West) is the barn’s only entry this week.  The filly comes with three straight wins at today’s distance and surface.  A deep closer, while the speed figures may be shy of others in here, she demands respect, especially in exotic bets.

11. Gypsy Angel (High Chaparral x Storm Cat) is one expensively bred filly that may have found her distance and surface.  The HolyBull99 (14%) trainee is two for four in turf route and seems to be rapidly improving.  Moves up in class to graded company, but all the signals say this 9-1 shot belongs.  Stalking style should help.

12. Maeve’s Causeway (Giant’s Causeway x Red Ransom) got trounced by a couple in here in The Storm Dog, but the lightly raced Galileo (16%) trainee will likely show improvement off that effort.  She did win an owner restricted stakes at today’s surface and distance in competitive time.

13. Carbow Quest (Ransom O’War x Rainbow Quest) is three for six on the lawn, and she tries two turns for the first time today.  The ViperThree (9%) trainee has finished in the money in grassy graded stakes before.  Tries a route for the first time today, and may be a great value play at 10-1.

Morning Line: 5-4-7-6

timmn’s picks: I have no idea.

OK, try again.

timmn’s picks:  7-4-8-9

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