Freakin’ Out: Toxicsuperfreakout Makes A Statement

A racehorse’s form is notoriously difficult to dissect, and rarely to races unfold exactly as planned, but every once in a while, they do.  Today, unfortunately for the connections of Magical Merlin, was not one of those days; their star colt fell a head short of the blistering 9-1 shot Toxicsuperfreakout.

From the outside gate, Toxicsuperfreakout was off quickly and hooked Gran Hope, another speedy colt who had the advantage of the inside gate, and the pair opened six lengths on the field.  Second choice Black Clown sat near the head of the main pack of horses, while Magical Merlin and the recent dark horse Clan Of The Cat lagged near the rear end of the group.

Trading blows with his rival speedster for six furlongs, Toxicsuperfreakout cleared Gran Hope at the top of the stretch, but as predicted in the pre-race coverage, the bright chestnut son of Orientate seemed to have reached his breaking point, and his stride shortened significantly as the field came through the stretch, despite jockey M. Staples furiously urging his colt on.  The urging was definitely necessary: Magical Merlin had begun his charge, with Clan Of The Cat and 15-1 longshot Bearly Wanted moving with him, but as the field moved inside the eight pole, it was clear that if anyone was going to be able to catch the tiring leader, it would have to be Magical Merlin, and the son of Smarty Jones very nearly accomplished that feat.  He fell a head short, but lost nothing in defeat, especially considering that he was backing up in distance after an impressive triumph in the Movieland Futurity (G1).  Bearly Wanted finished well and edged Clan Of The Cat for 3^rd money, with Gran Hope tiring to 5^th.  Black Clown never threatened.

Where does this leave the three year old division as we look towards the bigger Bluegrass Derby preps, and more importantly the Bluegrass Derby itself?  First, Magical Merlin, even in defeat, proved again that he will be difficult to beat in Kentucky: he is bred for 10 furlongs and apparently relishes the distance, and especially with a solid number of classy speed horses figuring to target the Derby, continuing on the track he is on has many listing him as an early Derby favorite. 

The winner, Toxicsuperfreakout, raised more questions than he answered today: while gritty and talented, he looked to be at the upper end of his distance capabilities, and while a tough speed duel with Gran Hope may have left him fried for the stretch run, is it reasonable to expect any races going longer than a mile to set up properly for him?  He’ll certainly have to come back and validate his performance in another route race before showing up on any Derby watchlists, but he could be a sleeper if he can move forward.

As for the also-rans, Clan Of The Cat showed sufficient turn of foot to keep the buzz surrounding the colt going, and he’ll be an exciting colt to watch as the distances lengthen.  Bearly Wanted, however, is another that will need to come back with a big race before being given much attention: the race set up perfectly for him, and he’ll need to repeat his performance in a graded stakes before beginning to gain some clout in the division.